HOW CHINA STANDS IN LADAKH – A STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

 

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HOW CHINA STANDS IN LADAKH – A STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Details of occupation of heights by Indian forces till date

            In my previous blog, I had made a detailed presentation of the reasons why China has been behaving in the manner it is doing so now, this is because of its deep rooted expansionist policy, coupled with the over-whelming desire of their present President Xi Jinping to become the greatest leader of China and attain a stature bigger than that of Mao Tse Tung.  Apparently the initial misadventure in Ladakh was aimed at diverting the attention of the world and especially the citizens of China from the various vagaries that China had to face both at International level as well as internally because of the Wuhan/Corona virus.  The closed country like China wherefrom any significant information is difficult to come by, the recent announcement of ‘Clean Plate’ initiative launched by their President is indicative of the food grain security issues inside China, as coupled with the financial setback and large scale flooding in the country, especially along the Yangste River basin,  has created a looming food grain crisis that may implode into a full blown political crisis in China and this is likely to impact the position of Xi Jinping during the plenary session of the China Communist Party (CCP for short) scheduled to held in October, 2020.  In this conclave the President is in process of presenting a future plan upto 2035, which is in contrast with the present practice of putting up future plans upto next 05 (Five) years only.  Therefore, the emphasis is to present President Xi Jinping, is to assumed complete command as the ultimate leader for China and in pursuance of this he is trying to divert attention from internal turmoil and raising the external threat issues.

Schematic presentation of Line of Actual Control (LAC) perception over the years

          Apart from the above mentioned position, China has had a long history of expansionism and has grown many folds by usurping territories of other neighboring countries (a copy of the map as given in my previous blog is again enclosed for ready reference) and thereafter imposing its regime using harsh and coercive means.  The example of Tibet stands out and the condition of its citizens is all but part of history now.  However, the recent actions by China in Hong Kong, which has been condemned all across the World, reflects its true intents and machinations.  It has also started imposition of Mandarin language and implementation of CCP dictates in parts of Mongolia usurped by it and the citizens there are up in arms against this policy, but are facing brutal repression at the hands of Chinese.  While referring to this kind of expansionist policy by China, an old anecdote of Indian origin comes to my mind and the crux of the story is that – ‘A Fox finds a lone lamb on a lonely stretch of River and comes up on it and states that since the lamb drank water from the part of the River that belongs to him, he would eat him up as punishment.  The lamb cries out stating that it was only eating grass on the River bank and did not drink water.  The Fox quickly pronounces that if it was not the lamb, than his father must have drunk water from his part of the river, so he was to pay up for his crime and hence the Fox was going to eat it up’.  Evidently, China follows this very principle of the Fox and usurps land stating that historically Chinese had ruled this part of the land.  If one goes by the same corollary, the most destructive and cruel ruler who had actually conquered land from Mongolia to Iran, was Kublai Khan, who was Mongol and by that corollary Mongolia should actually rule China, rather than being the other way round.  Similarly, I am placing a map of the region ruled by Ashoka the Great from 263 to 232 B.C and accordingly, India has unfettered rights all across the now disputed regions by China and also right upto Indonesia, as Indian rulers in the past had conquered those parts also and ruled there.  This is actually a very farfetched way of legitimizing illegal grabbing of land by China, but it does so with aplomb and till now, those areas being geographically and economically useless for the World at large, that was just trying to overcome the economic ravage post World War-II, China got away without much ado by the World community at large.

Map of India during Ashoka the Great

       Now leaving aside the light hearted banter against China and its policies, which it practices stringently along with the use of false narratives, usually used by small school children, of accusing the other of having raised his/her hands first during a first fight in the School,  the Chinese tend to do the same at their foreign policy level too.  China needs to grow out of its outdated thinking process, as all facts are now a days verifiable through various means easily.  At the time I had written the previous blog, the details of Galwan clash were only coming out in bits and pieces.  Now it is amply clear that the China had started the aggression in a planned manner and in pursuance thereof, had replaced the regular border guards with their so called elite forces.  Therefore, when Col. Suresh Babu had walked in believing that he would be speaking to the known face, he was surprised and it is evident now that he had been attacked from behind with intent to kill.  The Chinese had presumed that killing of the Commander would yield a morale downing blow upon the army personnel posted there and they would in turn abandon their posts, which the Chinese army would then occupy.  The Chinese militarily had three things in their favour – (a) An element of surprise; (b) Especially detailed regiment with tailor made assault weapons best suited for such combat situations; and (c) Numerical dominance in ratio of 1:3 (100 Indian soldiers as against 300 armed Chinese soldiers).  However, what transpired was totally beyond what the Chinese had comprehended, not only our forces physically removed them from the spot but also inflicted such body blows that actually demoralized the entire Chinese regiment to the extent that they had to be replaced and required psychological counseling.  Although India lost about 20 of its gallant soldiers, but the Chinese have definitely lost a substantial numbers and some claim that 106 had died (a photograph of the graveyard earmarked for such deceased Chinese personnel is circulating in the internet) , whereas a more definitive assessment is of 46 fatalities i.e. when they were at a more advantageous position.  It is also reported in hushed tones that the Indian soldiers had also captured the Commander of the said regiment during this skirmish.  Thus, it is evident that at home exercises are akin to playing video games and facing actual battle hardened forces on ground is a totally different ball game altogether.  However, China despite being aware of its short comings now, is finding it difficult to accept the position, as withdrawal at this stage could be counter-productive especially in view of the forthcoming plenary session for President Xi Jinping, as being the overall military commander, failure to achieve objective by the Chinese PLA could be attributable to him.  Therefore, having gained some ground by attacking from behind the back, by occupying area upto finger four in North Bank of Pangong Lake surreptitiously, a region that hitherto had been jointly and severally patrolled by both India and China.  However, China wanted to up the ante and force India to coming to the negotiation table at a lower stature and China wanted to bargain from a position of strength, as it would probably have sought to bargain for recognition of the CPC corridor by India in the POK area, as it is built on illegally occupied land by Pakistan and any unilateral decision by India to annex this disputed territory would have brought down this entire corridor of CPEC on to its knees.  This action would have caused unparalleled economic blow of about 45-50 billion dollars to China, as it could not have taken India to any International court also, having dealt illegally with Pakistan in using this disputed portion.  The bogey of India seeking to take Aksai Chin is being propagated by Chinese think tank, so as to somehow legalize its transgression into Indian territory, in total defiance of the agreements signed between the two nations, in contravention of all International laws in this regard.  The Chinese attempt to unilaterally change their borders with India has been in practice since 1959 onwards.  I am enclosing herewith a screen shot of a schematic representation of the facts on record regarding the Chinese transgression into Indian territories.  The red line across the Aksai Chin area was what Chinese perceived as LAC and occupied it in Nov., 1959.  Thereafter, during the Sino-Indian war in 1962 the Chinese had advanced upto the region marked by Blue line, but withdrew till the Red line in Sept., 1962 and has been adhering to the same till May, 2020.  However, the Chinese have again changed the perception of LAC unilaterally and now again trying to gain area upto the Blue line. 

A presentation of disputed area with China

            The reason that fueled this present blog was the recent commendable act of the Indian armed forces, when it thwarted another attempt by the Chinese armed forces to change the perception of LAC by occupying certain heights on the Southern bank of the Pangong Lake.  However, on the ensuing nights of 29 & 30, August, 2020 the Indian army out maneuvered the Chinese army and scaled the peaks of Thankung to Gurung Hill, Black top, Helmet top overlooking Spanggur Gap (where Chinese Garrison is stationed), Magar Hill, Mukhpari, Rezang La and Requin La.  The Chinese forces were beaten back and thus, India has established a dominating position across the South bank of Pangong Lake overlooking the finger four top area, thus the military dominance over heights at Pangong enjoyed by the Chinese hereto, have been neutralized and China lost the bargaining point that it had surreptitiously seized.  The Chinese have again tried to provoke the Indians entrenched in these positions, who has now deployed the Militia squad (akin to BAT of Pakistan) comprising of local goons and hooligans, for hand to hand combat in the region, by launching an frontal attack on 7^th Sept., 2020 but India has not allowed the Chinese to gain an inch, which has further flustered the Chinese leadership including President Xi Jinping.  The Chinese media started resorting to false propaganda, of Indian soldiers having fired in the air to caution Chinese aggressors, but the photographs circulated in the press by the Indian side has totally contradicted the Chinese stand and put them on back foot.  A copy of the photograph accessed from the net is placed for benefit of readers in this blog.

Grave of Chinese soldier killed in Galwan clash

          Having dealt with briefly the recent face to face confrontations between the armed forces of the two countries as explained hereinabove, it would be appropriate to discuss the military strength of either side.  China has assumed that having more number of armed force personnel and advanced equipment’s would give it an edge over India and accordingly, had ventured into a misadventure.  Chinese goods are only as reliable as long as they last, the latest incident of their J-10 fighter having crashed in Southern China shows its immense technological capabilities, without being sarcastic, if this incident is analyzed on merits, there are two scenarios, firstly that it was hit by a Tiwanese missile, which has been denied by both the countries and we should not dispute their stands, the next option would be that there was an engine or guidance control mechanism failure and in such a scenario too, the quality of the aircraft comes into question.  Thus, losing a so called State of Art aircraft at this point does not augur well for the Chinese Air force.  Flying routine sorties and flying into enemy formations or fire line are two different things and it is a fact on record that Chinese Airforce or armed forces have never ever have faced any such war in the past, so their experience is more of simulator based, rather than real war scenarios, as faced by Indian pilots and forces.  The prowess of Indian army has already been established both in Galwan and South banks of Pangong.  Any battle is never won by the machines it possesses, but by men who ride and command them.  China despite all its propaganda videos and sabre rattling is well aware of this fact and coupled with this, their army comprises mostly of four year conscripts (forced induction), most of whom are single child’s and thus, are more pampered and focused more towards further Education on completion of conscription, rather than to  fight for the PLA and hence not motivated enough and may run away from the field in case of any big adversity it faces, as against their Indian counterparts, who are professionals, well trained, motivated and serve on their own accord for the pride of their country. 

The expansionist policy of China explained on map 

         Now looking at the entire scenario in hindsight, I would like to refer to two studies conducted independently by International institutions namely – i) Center for a New American Security (CNAS) – study – ‘Imbalance of Power – India’s Military choices in an era of Strategic competition with China’ of October, 2019 – link - https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/imbalance-of-power; and ii) Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs of Harvard Kennedy School - ‘The Strategic Postures of China and India – A Visual Guide’ of March, 2020 – link - https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/strategic-postures-china-and-india-visual-guide.  Whereas, the first study relates to assessment of India aligning with United States so as to balance the power equation in the Asia Pacific region with the intent to contain China, especially in the region.  In this assessment, which probably has been done more at academic level, since the details of Indian deployments, infrastructure development in regions where ‘Inner line permits’ are required, are not easily accessible for foreigners, hence the assessment of India being inadequate in this sector and would be slow in deployment of troops etc. in the Himalayan region and China on the other hand having had built ample infrastructure would be at a highly advantageous position.  The report further criticizes India of going slow with its association with the Quad group i.e. United States, Australia, Japan and India to dominate the entire Indian Ocean region.  It has been concluded in the said study that China may take advantage of the situation and usurp Indian territory along the Himalayan borders in active association with Pakistan, also seize Indian Naval boats and other strategic assets etc. to be at a better bargaining position, so as to pin down India at the negotiating table, so that it gives up its key territories and negotiates as follows –

a)    India signs a humiliating joint statement by which Delhi apologizes for its provocations and formally recognizes the Chinese-designated Dalai Lama;

b)     Offer to agree to release the corvette and its crew in exchange for India recognizing Chinese sovereignty over the South China Sea and promising to ask for permission prior to “sailing through China’s blue national soil.”;

c)         Indian cession or demilitarization of key terrain such as Bum La Pass, Jhamperi Ridge, Lakshadweep Island and the Andaman and Nicobar islands.

The second study on the other hand is based on open source information and an assessment of the military capabilities of both the countries.  However, it is evident from this study that even though China may possess military personnel and hardware much larger in numerically, yet the deployment level is fairly even, as China has a much bigger border area to cover, especially having drawn enmity with most of its neighbors because of its expansionist policy.  Thus, in case of limited conflict, it would definitely be the man over the machine that is going to decide the issue.

Finger-4 area - satellite image of India-China positions as on 11th Sept., 2020

             The Chinese it appears were more bolstered by the first report discussed hereinabove and akin to Pakistan strategy crept across upto finger 4 region in the north banks of Pangong Lake in late April/early May 2020 with the sole intent to gain physical/military and strategically important position in the region, in total disregard of the practice in place since 1962, wherein troops of either side patrolled the regions between finger-4 to finger-8 areas, being a kind of buffer zone.  By surreptitiously taking up position at finger-4, the Chinese side unilaterally changed the status-quo and the Indian side through its various diplomatic as well as military channels has been trying to restore the status quo as it existed in April, 2020.  The Chinese side does not appear to have any intention of moving back, but on other hand has been amassing men and machine by each passing day, albeit trying to assure India through various meetings/statements etc. that it professed early disengagement in the region.  The incident that happened at Galwan on 15^th June, 2020 was the first military set-back suffered by China and its assumptions regarding prowess of its army i.e. PLA against the grit and professionalism of Indian Armed forces came to the fore.  The Chinese side all through since 5^th May, 2020 has been professing for peace and disengagement, but simultaneously bolstering their military presence in the region.  The Indian side has now clearly seen through the Chinese game plan and despite an uneasy calm, tensions were palpable on the borders.  On the ensuing night of August 29-30, 2020 in a major development, on getting confirmed information of the movement of forces on Chinese side, trying to change the status quo on the northern banks of Pangong Lake by occupying higher regions, the Indian side too reacted quickly and before the Chinese could advance further, the Indian side claimed many peaks as detailed earlier in the blog.  Whereas, it took the Chinese army 13-14 hours to trudge upto the ridge line, the Indian army bolstered by presence of Special Frontier Force (a specially trained brigade comprising mainly of Tibetan and higher mountainous region persons) had climbed these peaks in less than four hours, thus denying Chinese any further access. Furthermore, there was another skirmish between the troops on the 7^th of September, 2020 wherein a contingent of Chinese troops armed with spears, rod mounted machetes and automatic rifles tried to overrun the recently acquired peaks, but were thwarted by the Indian army, but first time in 45 years i.e. since 1975 fires were shot, albeit in air by the Chinese forces.  Instead of being deterred by these Chinese activities, the Indian troops on 9^th September, 2020 has further occupied position along finger 4 area at an altitude higher than that is occupied by the Chinese troops and hence by dominating the heights now (they are about 300 meters apart at this height), the Indian troops have turned the tables on the Chinese, but have done so very cleverly, by staying on their side of LAC.  The Chinese leadership is totally aghast at the action of the Indian troops, as their intentions of negotiating from position of strength has totally eroded and now both the armies are now equally poised. 

Chinese soldiers with crude weapons - 7th Sept., 2020

The intents of the Chinese are still suspect, as even after seeking an audience with the Indian Defense Minister by his Chinese counterpart during the SCO Summit on 4^th Sept., 2020, the official spokesperson of China went on to state that the responsibility of entire crisis rested with India, in their Chinese version, but was not reiterated in its English version.  This shows that the Chinese authorities are playing a double game with their own citizens, by taking a tough stand and blaming India for all their acts, but refraining from doing so at the International forum, because of the repercussions it is likely to face in the international media.  Thereafter, on the ensuing 10^th September, 2020 the Chinese Foreign Minister had a meeting with his Indian counterpart as part of the SCO summit and they have broadly agreed on a five points to reduce tension and for de-escalation as per a joint statement.  But it has now percolated out that the Indian side had strongly and categorically informed the Chinese side that the reason for such huge build up in Ladakh by it, for no plausible reason, had to be countered by India and it rested on the Chinese to de-escalate in such a scenario. 

             In my opinion, the Chinese cannot be trusted and their President Xi Jinping is the true fox that I had narrated in the anecdote in this blog.  Like his Pakistani counter-parts, he is bound to return back for foraging in this region again.  The Chinese side was totally taken aback at the speed at which India was able to deploy its forces in a mirror deployment, thus blunting the surprise element that China had perceived.  Further, China itself has now been exposed against a professional force and is still counting its numbers of dead soldiers.  Even though China may have been able to suppress the Galwan deaths from its civilian citizens, such information travels quickly amongst the military establishments and this has led to total demoralization of the PLA troops stationed in the region.  Further, it is now apparent that President Xi Jinping can gain nothing substantial to show for during the plenary session to be held in October, 2020 and in case of any future mis-adventure, akin to Aug., 29-30, 2020 incident that culminates on another failed mission for China, it may turn the tables in the internal politics and he may not get another chance to return to power.  Coupled with the above, with the winters setting in, which may be even earlier this year, the movement of troops and artillery back to their bases may become a huge challenge for China if it further delays its withdrawal and Indian forces with help of Tibetan freedom fighters may damage its war machinery beyond repair during the harsh winter season, as the Chinese would get restricted in their activities, whereas Indian troops and Tibetans are well acclimatized to venture into the region in deep snow and cold, as against their Chinese counterparts.  Therefore, the Chinese have got themselves entrapped into a situation, which had initially been envisaged by them as a win-win situation, but has now turned into a lose-lose situation.  They are now trying to find an honorable exit from the situation, so that they re-work their strategy and can come back for another round after the winters.  On the other hand it is advisable that India now being in a dominating position i.e. is in a position to enforce final demarcation of the boundary between the two countries should continue to consolidate all along from Ladakh, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal, as the Fox (China) may try to dig a hole in any of these sectors to gain leverage on the negotiating table.  For achieving this, India will have to work on a two pronged strategy – (i) To destabilize Tibet by encouraging the revolutionary elements and it would be in best interest of India, if Tibet can be liberated as an independent country; and (ii) simultaneously engage Pakistan and take away, what is legitimately ours i.e. Pakistan occupied Kashmir.  If India is even able to ensure the latter, the entire CPEC project of China would go down the drain and then China would have no further interest left in propagating Pakistan, which in due course will disintegrate into smaller segments and no longer pose any problems for India, but India should ensure that parts of Karachi, Gwadar etc. do not come under Chinese influence in future too.  The continued economic strangle hold on China by the International community, shall ensure disintegration of China too in the near future into smaller independent democratic nations, whose citizens will be freed of the forced subjugation and tyranny being faced by them, as these regions have been forcibly occupied by China (as detailed in my previous blog) while expanding its territory, as even a balloon explodes if it is stretched beyond a point.  Hope that this Chinese balloon blows up sooner than expected for the sake of world peace.

© S Roy Biswas

N.B - All the diagrams/photos have been accessed from the internet

 

What ails China? An analysis of Chinese expansionist policy

What ails China? An analysis of Chinese expansionist policy

A schematic representation of how China is trying to capture parts of Ladakh 

             I have been perturbed with the Chinese behaviour of needling all its neighbours needlessly over decades and now it appears that it has upped the ante.   All this happening when the world is struggling with Chinese virus and now it appears through the circumstantial evidence evolving on day to day basis that the virus had been deliberately spread to hamper the world economy and establish its hegemony.  However, it appears that the Chinese virus could not achieve in totality what it was spread for, but the Chinese regime that had already chalked out a pre-determined strategy and now cannot go back on it, having suffered huge financial losses themselves.  In order to unravel this peculiar mind set of the Chinese regime I started studying the Chinese actions of the past and this post is more India specific in its analysis.

What China is trying to negotiate by threatening war with India - the illegal CPEC arrangement with Pakistan

             In order to understand the Chinese leaders and their psyche, one will have to go through their history.  Although China has one of the most ancient histories that has survived through ages since pre-Christian era and having contributed towards science, textile and other agrarian sectors during its illustrious history, but it has been time and again plagued by foreign dominance starting from Kublai Khan an Mongol war lord, who had brought entire China under his tutelage.  There were many illustrious dynasties that ruled the region from time to time like the – Zhou Dynasty – Quin Dynasty – Han Dynasty – Tang Dynasty – Song Dynasty – Yuan Dynasty (Kublai Khan) – Ming Dynasty – Qing Dynasty – period ruled by Sun Yet Sen (Kuomintang’s) and finally by Mao Tse Tung (to read in detail about the timelines and achievements etc. of these rulers - http://www.localhistories.org/china.html).  However, the period, in between 1890s to 1930s particularly, was one of the most disastrous periods of Chinese history and there were conflicts and loss of land in wars etc.  China was mostly restricted to southern region along the South China Sea and can be demarcated along the norther borders along the Great Wall of China that had been drawn to protect it from invasion by Mongols, Turks etc.  Therefore, it can be said that there was no authoritative rule in entire China as it is, as of today and especially during the period mentioned i.e. 1890s to 1930s.  

This is how the Chinese slaughtered their citizens during Mao's rule - Harbin on Sept. 12_1966 shot by famed photographer who had hid these images under the floor of his home - Li Zhensheng

             Now to draw the pointer to the present day dispute with China, it relates to the same time line when China was at its lowest ebb as stated above.  Tibet too has a long and ancient history that has faced attacks and subjugation in the past and the longest such rule was by the Mongols.  However, during the 13^th to the 16^th century A.D, the Mongol rulers were influenced by Buddhist teachings, which had to large extent taken over the older Bon religion, which was in practice in Tibet and the Mongols had appointed Dalai Lama as the religious-political leader (also referred to as priest ruler by some historians) of Tibet under protectorate of the Mongols.  However, due to internal conflicts the country witnessed several upheavals until the 6^th Dalai Lama was disposed of by the Mongols in 1705 A.D, but they were not able to rule as another Mongol warlord of Dzungars clan invaded Tibet and killed Lahsang Khang the Mongol ruler.  The Chinese got worried over the growing clout of the Mongols and sent an ambassador called Amban to Tibet with some forces and therefrom the Chinese assumed that they had become over lords of Tibet.  The Tibetan religious leadership thereafter isolated themselves from all sides and became a reclusive kingdom.  But due to geo-political conditions, assuming that Russia may annex this region, the British invaded Tibet in the early 20^th Century, to be precise this invasion started on 3^rd December, 1903 and ended on 4^th September, 1904.  During the invasion the Dalai Lama fled to Mongolia and the Chinese Amban declared that the Dalai Lama had been deposed, but the locals hardly believed him and after extracting some concessions from the Tibetans, the British withdrew as they never wanted to rule Tibet.  Fearing that Tibet may become entry point for British to invade China, the Chinese rulers invaded Tibet in 1909 and the Dalai Lama fled to India.  However, this Chinese invasion was short lived and they were over thrown by the locals in 1911 and the Dalai Lama returned to Tibet in 1912.  However, in 1913 the Chinese again took control of some parts of Tibet and seeing this aggressive posture, the British entered into a treaty, known as the Shimla Accord signed on 3^rd July, 1914, whereby a line dividing inner and outer Tibet was drawn by Sir Henry MacMahon.  This agreement was signed by the Tibetan representatives, but the Chinese plenipotentiary Ivan Chen declined to sign it.  The line drawn by Sir Henry MacMahon is known as the present day ‘MacMahon line’ and forms the basis of dispute.  By this agreement the inner Tibet region comprising of Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces were to be governed by Chinese and the remaining region of outer Tibet including Lahsa would be ruled by the Tibetans through Dalai Lama, further the agreement stipulated that China would not absorb Tibet under any conditions.  Although the Chinese repudiated this agreement, but it is evident from records that during the signing of this treaty with Tibet the Chinese had no direct control over Lahsa and hence had no direct say in this respect, as per International Laws.  The Chinese again invaded Tibet in 1918 but were beaten back and this further establishes the fact that Tibet was never under direct control of China ever.  The Chinese made several attempts to over-run Tibet in 1920s and 1930s, but finally they annexed Tibet in 1951, with country like India taking a spectators seat for reasons best known to the political establishment in power at that point of time.  The Tibetans never agreed to this Chinese annexation of their Country and stood up in revolution in 1959 that was brutally crushed by the Chinese military.  To read more in detail about the history of Tibet - http://www.localhistories.org/tibet.html. 

Dalai Lama arrives at Tawang in 1959

The then Chief of Army staff Lt. Gen. B.M Kaul whose wrong assessment lead to defeat of Indian inadequately armed soldiers 

                 The modern day China came through many revolutions against the central autocratic rule and the Qing Dynasty was last to rule was Empress Dowager, Cixi who was deposed in 1912 through abdication of throne.  The stone had been set rolling by one Mr.Sun Yet Sen who formed the revolutionary alliance in 1905 and loosely knit an association of like-minded persons, known as the Literary Society, who started gathering to force a revolution.  However, during the preparations of the revolution, a bomb went off in one of their offices in 1911 and sensing that the Government might come down with a heavy hand, they started the revolution albeit prematurely.  The Qing ruler finding himself overwhelmed by the number of regions voluntarily ceding from the Qing dynasty rule, requested a dismissed General known as Yuan Sikai to help them regain control.  However, when the troops of the General were repulsed at Nanjing, he changed sides and joined the revolutionaries and forced the ruler to abdicate her throne in 1912. As per the agreement entered into with the revolutionaries, General Yuan Sikai became the first President of Republic of China, with Sun Yet Sen’s Kuomintang emerging as the largest party.  The General had no intention of sharing power and so he dispersed the National Assembly in January, 1914 after having disbanded the Kuomintang in Dec., 1913.  However, the General died in 1916 and China entered into a state of anarchy, being ruled by several war lords and split into many parts.  In between this the Communist Party of China was formed by Mao Tse Tung in 1921 and on the other hand although the Kuomintang was banned, it had simply shifted base to Guangzhou province in China.  Taking advantage of the break down in the system, the Kuomintang embarked upon a plan to unite China and formed an army of about 1.50.000 which marched north and defeated several warlords in 1926 and large parts of north China was brought under rule of the Kuomintang.  After consolidating the powers, the Kuomintang embarked on the northern expedition again in 1928 and in April, 1928 it entered Beijing and China finally came under a central rule.  Therefore, from this it is amply evident that there was no absolute ruler in China who could have participated in any negotiation with any foreign ruler in respect of any third country i.e. Tibet and hence the claim of China about any suzerainty over Tibet during this particular period of time is totally a fallacy and based on false premises. 

A schematic representation of MacMahon line in Arunachal region

The position of MacMahon line in disputed region of Ladakh

            Now coming to the period of consolidation of China, after having forged the Communist party in China in 1921, Mao Tse Tung launched a peasant’s revolution in 1927 known as the ‘Autumn Harvest Uprising’, but the same was crushed by December, 1927 by the Kuomintang government.  There was a bitter sweet relation between the Kuomintang and the Communists that led to the Kuomintang declaring that China was not ready for democracy and Chiang Kai Shek became the dictator in 1930.  The communist continued to oppose the Kuomintang and in 1930 another rebellion was launched by Communist under leadership of Li Lisan, but this too was crushed.  Finding it difficult to directly confront the Government, Mao Tse Tung devised the modern day warfare (that is now used by the Naxalites) called the Guerrilla warfare, whereby they would make sudden attacks and then disappear, thus bleeding the Government forces and wearing them down.  Peeved at this activity, the Kuomintang Government decided to encircle the guerrilla warriors and encircled them in 1934 and finding himself cornered Mao Tse Tung decided to break through the cordon and alongwith 90,000 of this associates he broke through the cordon and started his march north wards and this is known as the ‘Long March’ by the Chinese, but at the end only 20,000 odd had survived this long journey.  Due to attack by Japan in 1937 there was a brief cease fire between the Kuomintang and Communists, but after Japanese attack had been repulsed and Russia having taken over Manchuria from Japanese handed over this region to the Communists and thus established Communist rule there in 1945.  The war between the Kuomintang and Communists again commenced in 1946 and after final war that took place in between 1948-49, the Communists finally took Beijing on January, 1949 and established the present day Communist regime.  Although it has had its ups and downs, but the expansionist policy of the party remains at the core of party politics.  The first example was the annexation of Tibet in 1951 and countries across remained largely uninterested, as this region hardly had any international significance in form of industry or natural resources.  The United Nations did not take any collective action and this had emboldened China to go on its spree of expansionist policy, albeit non-descript portions surrounding it.  Here is a map depicting the expansion by China over the years (as sourced from the internet) –

The China that is marked in purple was its initial holding and the remaining has been grabbed by it later 

            After having taken over Tibet as a cake walk, China started seeking control over all of the so called ‘Outer Tibet’ and after Dalai Lama crossed over to India, in aftermath of the rebellion being quelled by the Chinese army in 1959, to Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh then referred to North East Frontier Agency (NEFA for short).  The autocratic ruler Mao Tse Tung who just went by his own interpretation of his sense of justice and rule of law, in pursuance of his own myopic vision, had not flinched even once in killing over 1.5 million Chinese during the so called revolutions and his indignant behavior can be judged from the fact that during famine in China, he ordered killing of Sparrows stating that they ate the seeds, which in turn resulted in swarms of locust on whose spawns the Sparrows kept a check, through process of natural selection, thus aggravating the famine conditions in China.  Mao Tse Tung believed himself to be some kind of super person and through the Cultural Revolution of 1960s he tried to impose this thought process on his vassals too.  It now appears that being peeved at the safe passage granted to Dalai Lama by the Indian Government, it appears that Mao Tse Tung wanted to teach India a lesson and was looking at ways and means to do so.  Therefore, the Chinese Government machinery came up with the idea of repudiating the MacMahon line and challenging it (Here is a link to an article about this boundary dispute - The McMahon Line: A hundred years on - https://idsa.in/idsacomments/TheMcMahonLine_rskalha_030714).  It would be imperative to place here on record that despite the fact that the Chinese had no authority to negotiate the Shimla Agreement of 1914, as is amply established from the geo-political scenario existing at that point of time and detailed above, yet it tried to raise this issue.  The Chinese being opportunists, were lying in wait for the right time to strike and coupled with the poor military management by the Nehru Government, especially role of Lt. Gen. B.M Kaul, who reached that spot through nepotism, India allowed China an golden opportunity and in October, 1962 during the period when Cold War was at its height and both USA and USSR were tangled in the ‘Bay of Pigs’ controversy and also the Cuban missile crisis, China thought it fit to attack India as both super powers were engaged elsewhere.  The Indian army was ill equipped and during my visit to the Military Museum in Tawang, it could be seen that our soldiers not only were not having appropriate clothing and footwear, but also weapons of bygone era i.e. vintage 303 Rifles with a very poor range as against advanced SLRs and sub-machine guns of the Chinese Army.  Our then Prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru  abjectly surrendered and even stated on Radio apologizing to the Assamese people for loss of their territory to China, all this because of his skewed up thought process of Panchsheel.  The Chinese never gave a damn to his idea or ideals and made a mockery of him internationally and India lost its face internationally and Mao Tse Tung has had his revenge.

Standard Indian army equipment during Sino-Indian war in 1962 (see the quality of rifle)

Standard army issue of Chinese guns to its soldiers during 1962 (so you see where the difference lay)

Remember present day stand offs seen in media now a days - the attitude of Chinese was same in 1962 also

            But having had access into India so easily during the 1962 war wherein it had wrested control of about 42,000 square kilometers of Akasai Chin in Ladakh region, had emboldened the Chinese.  Further, there were various journalists in Britain and Australia (named Neville Maxwell), having a colonial mindset and upset with the Golden egg i.e India having been taken away from their kitty, pushed the theory that it was in fact India which was the aggressor in 1962 (Here is the link to the column that was published in 2011 - WHOSE TAWANG? A Dispute Within the Sino-Indian Boundary Dispute By Neville Maxwel - https://chinaindiaborderdispute.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/nmaxwelltawangsevensisterspostnov2011.pdf ).   These are the reasons, of the skewed perception of China created and built up by the paid media influencers, as to why Australia is today are at the receiving end of the Chinese tirade and as admitted in the Australian Parliament.  However, despite limited setbacks in 1967 war at Nathu la and Cho La suffered by the Chinese and off late the hard stance taken by India during the 2017 Dokalam incident that lasted for about 70 days, China still remains highly motivated about its own capabilities as on paper and its syndrome of grandeur.  Even the sound thrashing the Chinese troops received at the hands of Vietnamese troops in 1979 did little to dampen their spirits or drive in the harsh reality of a paper dragon as against a battle hardened army.  Due toLa the over indulgence of Chinese by the Western world that appears to have had a bias to deal with a previous vassal and thus being less than equal and as China had never been subjugated the Western world thought that they would continue with their economic imperialism and get goods manufactured in China at low rates and sell it all across the world and make easy profit.  But China had its own ancient saying/phrase tao guang yang hui (韬光养晦), “keep a low profile” in the context of China’s diplomatic policy.  The phrase was used by Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s and literally meant that - “observe calmly, secure our position, cope with affairs calmly, hide our capacities and bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership.”  The Chinese bided their time and gathered the technology by reverse engineering and stealing i.e. by hook or by crook as the saying goes.  Although China by the current rate of growth would have achieved the numero uno position in world economy by 2040s.  The current President Xi Jinping, it appears has lost out the last and most important portion of advice of the Chinese saying totally – “….and never claim leadership”.  Apparently Xi Jinping, in order to prove himself to be a far bigger leader than Mao Tse Tung, thought of becoming the world leader by deceit and spread the Corona virus with the intent to subjugate the entire world order economically or through economic imperialism (you can check out my blog why I claim that the Corona virus was spread by China deliberately by clicking on this link - http://shantanuroybiswas.blogspot.com/2020/04/case-study-whether-sars-covid-19-is-man.html).  It appears that the intent of Xi Jinping was apparently was to celebrate 100 years of formation of Communist Party of China in style that is due in 2021 and establish himself as the greatest Chinese leader of all times in annals of history. 

How China tried to deceive India, but failed because of brave sacrifice by our armed forces of Bihar Regiment

          However, it is now evident that he started his campaign twenty years too early, as he was still not in a position to take on the world single handedly.  The Chinese in pursuance of the goal set forth by their President Xi Jinping started with domination of South China Sea region by needling Vietnam, Philippines and even Malaysia as it wanted to dominate the corridor between Arabian Sea (for supply of Oil etc.) and Japan alongwith Korea, both being adversaries in business as well as politically.  China had constructed a chain of artificial islands and tried to claim 200 nautical miles as its exclusive Economic Zone, in total disregard to the laid down International Laws, in this regard.  It is also peeved with India for having sided with Vietnam in field of off shore Oil exploration in the region and the unreported naval skirmish in which India had again bloodied the Chinese nose in the recent past, as reported in some press.  The sudden reaction from the North Korean despot by jumping into the simmering Geo-political struggle and by upping the ante with nuclear threats etc. appears to be a well-rehearsed and pre-meditated strategy by the Chinese.  This includes the recent events happening in Pakistan, which too has ramped up its terrorist and cross-border activities alongwith cyber-attack on Australia, appear to be a concerted effort to subjugate the world order.  The recent political and provoking stand taken by the Government of Nepal on behest of the Chinese is apparent on the face of it.  The role of the female Chinese ambassador to China is now at the forefront and poor Oli might become a victim of some MMS sooner than later, establishing the extent the Chinese would go to achieve their target. 

Area captured by China in 1962 and also regions illegally ceded by Pakistan

             The development of India as an economic force along with the ability to provide manufacturing hubs to European and United States based industries was one of the fall outs that had been foreseen by the Chinese think tank, in worst case scenario, if the Corona war failed.  Therefore, China and Pakistan first got together to launch the Corona war through the now infamous ‘Tabiligi Jamat’ members, who had been indoctrinated stating the Corona and Koran were synonyms and the Muslims would therefore not be affected by this virus.  This has resulted in the catastrophe that is happening in Pakistan today and coupled with it presence of Uighur Muslims who had entered India through third countries and spread out in rural areas of India, cannot be discounted to be part of the China-Pakistan warfare against India.  But apparently, it did not have the desired impact as Prime Minister Modi was quick to implement the lockdown and thus, avoid immediate and catastrophic impact of the virus upon India.  Having failed in this attempt and coupled with the decision taken by India to make Ladakh a Union territory forced the Chinese to take note of the fact that apparently their game plan had been exposed.  Therefore, it was wary that like its historical acts in the past, if India thinks of doing the same, it might get dislodged from Aksai Chin and India might also take over Gilgit and Baltistan, which would be a death knell for the CPEC/OBOR corridor and about 45 billion dollars would go down the drain, which would be a huge embarrassment for Xi Jinpeng and may cost him his Presidency.  Knowing fully well that all the three corridors i.e. Aksai Chin, Gilgit and Baltistan occupation was illegal by China and Pakistan and it would not get any assistance from any International forum for this, Chinese thought to pressurizing India into an agreement to cede territory and back off from war at this juncture of economic deprivation that is prevailing the world over including India.  The incident in Galwan River valley on the ensuing night of 15^th to 16^th June, 2020 was a well thought out plan by the Chinese side to first destabilize and demoralize the Indian armed forces and after suddenly attacking the Indians to gain the advantage and consolidate their position deep inside thereby threatening the Daulat Bagh Oldie road and negotiate for OBOR on this premise.  But the turn of events left the Chinese red faced, as the paper dragons were beaten fairly and squarely by the battle hardened professional Indian army that sent jitters down the spines of the fancy Chinese army personnel.  Having lost the desired advantage and also getting exposed, the Chinese side is now busy trying to get a face saving exit, but having ventured too far this time around, it is finding it in no position to back out easily, as the false ego of their leader i.e. President Xi Jinping, having taken China to threshold of third world war, he now cannot simply back out, as he might lose his status and tall claims he perceived himself to be and to be read as in history books, would all go in vain.  Further, there are several reports of simmering discontent within the army i.e. PLA both retired soldiers as well as a faction within, who have been treated very badly and have put the actions of President Xi Jinping in question.  So this war cry is more of an attempt by Xi Jinping to remain entrenched and re-establish himself within the party as of now.  His vision as a world leader, so that his name remains etched there in the annals of Chinese history and what he perceived to portray and establish during the centenary year celebrations of the Chinese Communist Party, has all but disappeared and apparently he will go down in history as the leader who led to annihilation and total collapse of last Communist nation i.e. China akin USSR under leadership of Gorbachev.

            All the same, the Chinese cannot be trusted, as throughout their history as well as personal traits, it appears that they are back stabbers and not trustworthy at all. Apart from the activities listed hereinabove, there are a few more developments that have taken place and should find mention.  Russia was the country that provided the Chinese Communist Party a foothold in modern day China, by handing over the region of Manchuria, it had gained from Japanese after the Second World War.  However, despite its best effort, as it was unable to dissuade Russia from providing weaponry to India, the Chinese have resorted back to their habit of seeking land expansion policy as a blackmailing tactic, have now claimed Vladivostok being part of Haishenwai before Russia annexed it via unequal Treaty of Beijing.  This reflects its true color and creed i.e. ungrateful and back stabber.  In pursuance of its efforts to gain hegemony the world over it has also made territorial claims on Bhutan's Trashigang district that includes its capital Timphu.  So instead to showing restrain to maintain world peace and tranquility, it appears that China is on an expansionist policy and any show of back out should not be taken on its face value, but the world order should ensure its demilitarization and break its economic hegemony, akin to what was done with Germany after Second World War, as China may retreat today strategically, but will return back with same intentions a few years later, if not purged at this stage.  Indian army should also stand along its border till such time that the Chinese Army withdraws its forces from beyond striking range, as it may feign withdrawal and then turn back and attack with full force, as it did in Galwan valley, which was saved by the sheer will force and professionalism of our armed forces.   Whereas on one hand after every round of talks, China speaks of reducing tension in the region, but in the same breath is increasing its military deployment on an everyday basis in the region.  It appears that our Political leadership has analyzed the situation well and made mirror deployment to match China and today’s visit to Ladakh by our Prime Minister, is a direct message to China that its expansionist policy will no longer be tolerated any adventurism will be answered in a ‘Quid pro quo’ and this is the only language that the Chinese understand.  JAI HIND.

© S Roy Biswas

N.B – Most of the photographs have been sourced from the internet and those shot by the author carries the embedded copyright instructions