What ails China? An analysis of Chinese expansionist policy
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| A schematic representation of how China is trying to capture parts of Ladakh |
I have been perturbed
with the Chinese behaviour of needling all its neighbours needlessly over
decades and now it appears that it has upped the ante. All this happening when the world is
struggling with Chinese virus and now it appears through the circumstantial
evidence evolving on day to day basis that the virus had been deliberately
spread to hamper the world economy and establish its hegemony. However, it appears that the Chinese virus
could not achieve in totality what it was spread for, but the Chinese regime that
had already chalked out a pre-determined strategy and now cannot go back on it,
having suffered huge financial losses themselves. In order to unravel this peculiar mind set of
the Chinese regime I started studying the Chinese actions of the past and this
post is more India specific in its analysis.
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| What China is trying to negotiate by threatening war with India - the illegal CPEC arrangement with Pakistan |
In order to understand
the Chinese leaders and their psyche, one will have to go through their
history. Although China has one of the
most ancient histories that has survived through ages since pre-Christian era
and having contributed towards science, textile and other agrarian sectors
during its illustrious history, but it has been time and again plagued by
foreign dominance starting from Kublai Khan an Mongol war lord, who had brought
entire China under his tutelage. There
were many illustrious dynasties that ruled the region from time to time like
the – Zhou Dynasty – Quin Dynasty – Han Dynasty – Tang Dynasty – Song Dynasty –
Yuan Dynasty (Kublai Khan) – Ming Dynasty – Qing Dynasty – period ruled by Sun
Yet Sen (Kuomintang’s) and finally by Mao Tse Tung (to read in detail about the
timelines and achievements etc. of these rulers - http://www.localhistories.org/china.html). However, the
period, in between 1890s to 1930s particularly, was one of the most disastrous
periods of Chinese history and there were conflicts and loss of land in wars
etc. China was mostly restricted to
southern region along the South China Sea and can be demarcated along the
norther borders along the Great Wall of China that had been drawn to protect it
from invasion by Mongols, Turks etc.
Therefore, it can be said that there was no authoritative rule in entire
China as it is, as of today and especially during the period mentioned i.e.
1890s to 1930s.
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| This is how the Chinese slaughtered their citizens during Mao's rule - Harbin on Sept. 12_1966 shot by famed photographer who had hid these images under the floor of his home - Li Zhensheng |
Now to draw the pointer
to the present day dispute with China, it relates to the same time line when
China was at its lowest ebb as stated above.
Tibet too has a long and ancient history that has faced attacks and
subjugation in the past and the longest such rule was by the Mongols. However, during the 13th to the 16th
century A.D, the Mongol rulers were influenced by Buddhist teachings, which had
to large extent taken over the older Bon religion, which was in practice in
Tibet and the Mongols had appointed Dalai Lama as the religious-political
leader (also referred to as priest ruler by some historians) of Tibet under
protectorate of the Mongols. However,
due to internal conflicts the country witnessed several upheavals until the 6th
Dalai Lama was disposed of by the Mongols in 1705 A.D, but they were not able
to rule as another Mongol warlord of Dzungars clan invaded Tibet and killed Lahsang
Khang the Mongol ruler. The Chinese got
worried over the growing clout of the Mongols and sent an ambassador called
Amban to Tibet with some forces and therefrom the Chinese assumed that they had
become over lords of Tibet. The Tibetan
religious leadership thereafter isolated themselves from all sides and became a
reclusive kingdom. But due to
geo-political conditions, assuming that Russia may annex this region, the
British invaded Tibet in the early 20th Century, to be precise this
invasion started on 3rd December, 1903 and ended on 4th
September, 1904. During the invasion the
Dalai Lama fled to Mongolia and the Chinese Amban declared that the Dalai Lama
had been deposed, but the locals hardly believed him and after extracting some
concessions from the Tibetans, the British withdrew as they never wanted to
rule Tibet. Fearing that Tibet may
become entry point for British to invade China, the Chinese rulers invaded
Tibet in 1909 and the Dalai Lama fled to India.
However, this Chinese invasion was short lived and they were over thrown
by the locals in 1911 and the Dalai Lama returned to Tibet in 1912. However, in 1913 the Chinese again took
control of some parts of Tibet and seeing this aggressive posture, the British
entered into a treaty, known as the Shimla Accord signed on 3rd
July, 1914, whereby a line dividing inner and outer Tibet was drawn by Sir
Henry MacMahon. This agreement was
signed by the Tibetan representatives, but the Chinese plenipotentiary Ivan Chen declined to
sign it. The line drawn by Sir Henry
MacMahon is known as the present day ‘MacMahon line’ and forms the basis of
dispute. By this agreement the inner
Tibet region comprising of Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces were to
be governed by Chinese and the remaining region of outer Tibet including Lahsa
would be ruled by the Tibetans through Dalai Lama, further the agreement
stipulated that China would not absorb Tibet under any conditions. Although the Chinese repudiated this
agreement, but it is evident from
records that during the signing of this treaty with Tibet the Chinese had no
direct control over Lahsa and hence had no direct say in this respect, as
per International Laws. The Chinese
again invaded Tibet in 1918 but were beaten back and this further establishes the fact that Tibet was never under direct
control of China ever. The Chinese
made several attempts to over-run Tibet in 1920s and 1930s, but finally they
annexed Tibet in 1951, with country like India taking a spectators seat for
reasons best known to the political establishment in power at that point of
time. The Tibetans never agreed to this
Chinese annexation of their Country and stood up in revolution in 1959 that was
brutally crushed by the Chinese military.
To read more in detail about the history of Tibet - http://www.localhistories.org/tibet.html.
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| Dalai Lama arrives at Tawang in 1959 |
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| The then Chief of Army staff Lt. Gen. B.M Kaul whose wrong assessment lead to defeat of Indian inadequately armed soldiers |
The modern day China came through many
revolutions against the central autocratic rule and the Qing Dynasty was last
to rule was Empress Dowager, Cixi who was deposed in 1912 through
abdication of throne. The stone had been
set rolling by one Mr.Sun Yet Sen who formed the revolutionary alliance in 1905
and loosely knit an association of like-minded persons, known as the Literary
Society, who started gathering to force a revolution. However, during the preparations of the
revolution, a bomb went off in one of their offices in 1911 and sensing that
the Government might come down with a heavy hand, they started the revolution
albeit prematurely. The Qing ruler
finding himself overwhelmed by the number of regions voluntarily ceding from
the Qing dynasty rule, requested a dismissed General known as Yuan Sikai to
help them regain control. However, when
the troops of the General were repulsed at Nanjing, he changed sides and joined
the revolutionaries and forced the ruler to abdicate her throne in 1912. As per
the agreement entered into with the revolutionaries, General Yuan Sikai became
the first President of Republic of China, with Sun Yet Sen’s Kuomintang
emerging as the largest party. The
General had no intention of sharing power and so he dispersed the National
Assembly in January, 1914 after having disbanded the Kuomintang in Dec.,
1913. However, the General died in 1916
and China entered into a state of anarchy, being ruled by several war lords and
split into many parts. In between this
the Communist Party of China was formed by Mao Tse Tung in 1921 and on the
other hand although the Kuomintang was banned, it had simply shifted base to
Guangzhou province in China. Taking
advantage of the break down in the system, the Kuomintang embarked upon a plan
to unite China and formed an army of about 1.50.000 which marched north and
defeated several warlords in 1926 and large parts of north China was brought
under rule of the Kuomintang. After
consolidating the powers, the Kuomintang embarked on the northern expedition
again in 1928 and in April, 1928 it entered Beijing and China finally came
under a central rule. Therefore, from this it is amply evident
that there was no absolute ruler in China who could have participated in any
negotiation with any foreign ruler in respect of any third country i.e. Tibet
and hence the claim of China about any suzerainty over Tibet during this
particular period of time is totally a fallacy and based on false premises.
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| A schematic representation of MacMahon line in Arunachal region |
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| The position of MacMahon line in disputed region of Ladakh |
Now coming
to the period of consolidation of China, after having forged the Communist
party in China in 1921, Mao Tse Tung launched a peasant’s revolution in 1927
known as the ‘Autumn Harvest Uprising’, but the same was crushed by December,
1927 by the Kuomintang government. There
was a bitter sweet relation between the Kuomintang and the Communists that led
to the Kuomintang declaring that China was not ready for democracy and Chiang
Kai Shek became the dictator in 1930.
The communist continued to oppose the Kuomintang and in 1930 another
rebellion was launched by Communist under leadership of Li Lisan, but this too
was crushed. Finding it difficult to
directly confront the Government, Mao Tse Tung devised the modern day warfare
(that is now used by the Naxalites) called the Guerrilla warfare, whereby they
would make sudden attacks and then disappear, thus bleeding the Government
forces and wearing them down. Peeved at
this activity, the Kuomintang Government decided to encircle the guerrilla
warriors and encircled them in 1934 and finding himself cornered Mao Tse Tung
decided to break through the cordon and alongwith 90,000 of this associates he
broke through the cordon and started his march north wards and this is known as
the ‘Long March’ by the Chinese, but
at the end only 20,000 odd had survived this long journey. Due to attack by Japan in 1937 there was a
brief cease fire between the Kuomintang and Communists, but after Japanese
attack had been repulsed and Russia having taken over Manchuria from Japanese
handed over this region to the Communists and thus established Communist rule
there in 1945. The war between the
Kuomintang and Communists again commenced in 1946 and after final war that took
place in between 1948-49, the Communists finally took Beijing on January, 1949
and established the present day Communist regime. Although it has had its ups and downs, but
the expansionist policy of the party remains at the core of party
politics. The first example was the
annexation of Tibet in 1951 and countries across remained largely uninterested,
as this region hardly had any international significance in form of industry or
natural resources. The United Nations
did not take any collective action and this had emboldened China to go on its
spree of expansionist policy, albeit non-descript portions surrounding it. Here is a map depicting the expansion by
China over the years (as sourced from the internet) –
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The China that is marked in purple was its initial holding and the remaining has been grabbed by it later
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After having
taken over Tibet as a cake walk, China started seeking control over all of the so
called ‘Outer Tibet’ and after Dalai Lama crossed over to India, in aftermath
of the rebellion being quelled by the Chinese army in 1959, to Tawang,
Arunachal Pradesh then referred to North East Frontier Agency (NEFA for
short). The autocratic ruler Mao Tse
Tung who just went by his own interpretation of his sense of justice and rule
of law, in pursuance of his own myopic vision, had not flinched even once in
killing over 1.5 million Chinese during the so called revolutions and his
indignant behavior can be judged from the fact that during famine in China, he
ordered killing of Sparrows stating that they ate the seeds, which in turn
resulted in swarms of locust on whose spawns the Sparrows kept a check, through
process of natural selection, thus aggravating the famine conditions in
China. Mao Tse Tung believed himself to
be some kind of super person and through the Cultural Revolution of 1960s he
tried to impose this thought process on his vassals too. It now appears that being peeved at the safe
passage granted to Dalai Lama by the Indian Government, it appears that Mao Tse
Tung wanted to teach India a lesson and was looking at ways and means to do
so. Therefore, the Chinese Government
machinery came up with the idea of repudiating the MacMahon line and
challenging it (Here is a link to an article about this boundary dispute - The
McMahon Line: A hundred years on - https://idsa.in/idsacomments/TheMcMahonLine_rskalha_030714). It would be imperative to place
here on record that despite the fact that the Chinese had no authority to
negotiate the Shimla Agreement of 1914, as is amply established from the
geo-political scenario existing at that point of time and detailed above, yet
it tried to raise this issue. The Chinese being opportunists, were lying
in wait for the right time to strike and coupled with the poor military
management by the Nehru Government, especially role of Lt. Gen. B.M Kaul, who
reached that spot through nepotism, India
allowed China an golden opportunity and in October, 1962 during the period when
Cold War was at its height and both USA and USSR were tangled in the ‘Bay of
Pigs’ controversy and also the Cuban missile crisis, China thought it fit to
attack India as both super powers were engaged elsewhere. The Indian army was ill equipped and
during my visit to the Military Museum in Tawang, it could be seen that our
soldiers not only were not having appropriate clothing and footwear, but also
weapons of bygone era i.e. vintage 303 Rifles with a very poor range as against
advanced SLRs and sub-machine guns of the Chinese Army. Our then Prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru abjectly surrendered and even stated on Radio
apologizing to the Assamese people for loss of their territory to China, all
this because of his skewed up thought process of Panchsheel. The Chinese never gave a damn to his idea or
ideals and made a mockery of him internationally and India lost its face
internationally and Mao Tse Tung has had his revenge.
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| Standard Indian army equipment during Sino-Indian war in 1962 (see the quality of rifle) |
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| Standard army issue of Chinese guns to its soldiers during 1962 (so you see where the difference lay) |
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| Remember present day stand offs seen in media now a days - the attitude of Chinese was same in 1962 also |
But having
had access into India so easily during the 1962 war wherein it had wrested
control of about 42,000 square kilometers of Akasai Chin in Ladakh region, had
emboldened the Chinese. Further, there were various journalists in
Britain and Australia (named Neville
Maxwell), having a colonial mindset
and upset with the Golden egg i.e India having been taken away from their
kitty, pushed the theory that it was in fact India which was the aggressor in
1962 (Here is the link to the column that was published in 2011 - WHOSE TAWANG? A Dispute Within the Sino-Indian
Boundary Dispute
By Neville Maxwel - https://chinaindiaborderdispute.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/nmaxwelltawangsevensisterspostnov2011.pdf ). These are the reasons, of the skewed
perception of China created and built up by the paid media influencers, as to
why Australia is today are at the receiving end of the Chinese tirade and as admitted
in the Australian Parliament. However, despite limited setbacks in 1967 war at
Nathu la and Cho La suffered by the Chinese and off late the hard stance taken
by India during the 2017 Dokalam incident that lasted for about 70 days, China still
remains highly motivated about its own capabilities as on paper and its
syndrome of grandeur. Even the sound
thrashing the Chinese troops received at the hands of Vietnamese troops in 1979
did little to dampen their spirits or drive in the harsh reality of a paper
dragon as against a battle hardened army.
Due toLa the over indulgence of
Chinese by the Western world that appears to have had a bias to deal with a previous vassal and thus being less than equal and as China had never been subjugated the Western world thought that they would continue with their
economic imperialism and get goods manufactured in China at low rates and sell
it all across the world and make easy profit. But China had its own ancient saying/phrase tao
guang yang hui (韬光养晦), “keep a low profile” in the
context of China’s diplomatic policy.
The phrase was used by Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s and literally meant
that - “observe calmly, secure our position, cope with affairs calmly, hide our
capacities and bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile, and
never claim leadership.” The Chinese
bided their time and gathered the technology by reverse engineering and
stealing i.e. by hook or by crook as the saying goes. Although China by the current rate of growth
would have achieved the numero uno position
in world economy by 2040s. The current
President Xi Jinping, it appears has lost out the last and most important
portion of advice of the Chinese saying totally – “….and never claim
leadership”. Apparently Xi Jinping, in order
to prove himself to be a far bigger leader than Mao Tse Tung, thought of
becoming the world leader by deceit and spread the Corona virus with the intent
to subjugate the entire world order economically or through economic
imperialism (you can check out my blog why I claim that the Corona virus was
spread by China deliberately by clicking on this link - http://shantanuroybiswas.blogspot.com/2020/04/case-study-whether-sars-covid-19-is-man.html). It
appears that the intent of Xi Jinping was apparently was to celebrate 100 years
of formation of Communist Party of China in style that is due in 2021 and
establish himself as the greatest Chinese leader of all times in annals of
history.
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| How China tried to deceive India, but failed because of brave sacrifice by our armed forces of Bihar Regiment |
However, it is now evident that he started his
campaign twenty years too early, as he was still not in a position to take on
the world single handedly. The
Chinese in pursuance of the goal set forth by their President Xi Jinping
started with domination of South China Sea region by needling Vietnam,
Philippines and even Malaysia as it wanted to dominate the corridor between
Arabian Sea (for supply of Oil etc.) and Japan alongwith Korea, both being
adversaries in business as well as politically.
China had constructed a chain of artificial islands and tried to claim
200 nautical miles as its exclusive Economic Zone, in total disregard to the
laid down International Laws, in this regard.
It is also peeved with India for having sided with Vietnam in field of
off shore Oil exploration in the region and the unreported naval skirmish in
which India had again bloodied the Chinese nose in the recent past, as reported
in some press. The sudden reaction from
the North Korean despot by jumping into the simmering Geo-political struggle
and by upping the ante with nuclear threats etc. appears to be a well-rehearsed
and pre-meditated strategy by the Chinese.
This includes the recent events happening in Pakistan, which too has
ramped up its terrorist and cross-border activities alongwith cyber-attack on
Australia, appear to be a concerted effort to subjugate the world order. The recent political and provoking stand
taken by the Government of Nepal on behest of the Chinese is apparent on the
face of it. The role of the female
Chinese ambassador to China is now at the forefront and poor Oli might become a
victim of some MMS sooner than later, establishing the extent the Chinese would
go to achieve their target.
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| Area captured by China in 1962 and also regions illegally ceded by Pakistan |
The
development of India as an economic force along with the ability to provide
manufacturing hubs to European and United States based industries was one of
the fall outs that had been foreseen by the Chinese think tank, in worst case
scenario, if the Corona war failed.
Therefore, China and Pakistan first got together to launch the Corona
war through the now infamous ‘Tabiligi Jamat’ members, who had been
indoctrinated stating the Corona and Koran were synonyms and the Muslims would
therefore not be affected by this virus.
This has resulted in the catastrophe that is happening in Pakistan today
and coupled with it presence of Uighur Muslims who had entered India through
third countries and spread out in rural areas of India, cannot be discounted to
be part of the China-Pakistan warfare against India. But apparently, it did not have the desired
impact as Prime Minister Modi was quick to implement the lockdown and thus,
avoid immediate and catastrophic impact of the virus upon India. Having failed in this attempt and coupled
with the decision taken by India to make Ladakh a Union territory forced the
Chinese to take note of the fact that apparently their game plan had been
exposed. Therefore, it was wary that like
its historical acts in the past, if India thinks of doing the same, it might
get dislodged from Aksai Chin and India might also take over Gilgit and
Baltistan, which would be a death knell for the CPEC/OBOR corridor and about 45
billion dollars would go down the drain, which would be a huge embarrassment
for Xi Jinpeng and may cost him his Presidency.
Knowing fully well that all the three corridors i.e. Aksai Chin, Gilgit
and Baltistan occupation was illegal by China and Pakistan and it would not get
any assistance from any International forum for this, Chinese thought to
pressurizing India into an agreement to cede territory and back off from war at
this juncture of economic deprivation that is prevailing the world over
including India. The incident in Galwan River valley on the ensuing night of 15th
to 16th June, 2020 was a well thought out plan by the Chinese side
to first destabilize and demoralize the Indian armed forces and after suddenly attacking the Indians to
gain the advantage and consolidate their position deep inside thereby threatening
the Daulat Bagh Oldie road and negotiate for OBOR on this premise. But
the turn of events left the Chinese red faced, as the paper dragons were beaten fairly and squarely by the battle
hardened professional Indian army that sent jitters down the spines of the
fancy Chinese army personnel. Having
lost the desired advantage and also getting exposed, the Chinese side is now
busy trying to get a face saving exit, but having ventured too far this time
around, it is finding it in no position to back out easily, as the false ego of
their leader i.e. President Xi Jinping, having taken China to threshold of
third world war, he now cannot simply back out, as he might lose his status and
tall claims he perceived himself to be and to be read as in history books,
would all go in vain. Further, there are
several reports of simmering discontent within the army i.e. PLA both retired
soldiers as well as a faction within, who have been treated very badly and have
put the actions of President Xi Jinping in question. So this war cry is more of an attempt by Xi
Jinping to remain entrenched and re-establish himself within the party as of
now. His vision as a world leader, so
that his name remains etched there in the annals of Chinese history and what he
perceived to portray and establish during the centenary year celebrations of
the Chinese Communist Party, has all but disappeared and apparently he will go
down in history as the leader who led to annihilation and total collapse of last
Communist nation i.e. China akin USSR under leadership of Gorbachev.
All the same, the Chinese cannot be
trusted, as throughout their history as well as personal traits, it appears
that they are back stabbers and not trustworthy at all. Apart from the
activities listed hereinabove, there are a few more developments that have
taken place and should find mention.
Russia was the country that provided the Chinese Communist Party a
foothold in modern day China, by handing over the region of Manchuria, it had
gained from Japanese after the Second World War. However, despite its best effort, as it was
unable to dissuade Russia from providing weaponry to India, the Chinese have
resorted back to their habit of seeking land expansion policy as a blackmailing
tactic, have now claimed Vladivostok being part of Haishenwai before Russia annexed it via
unequal Treaty of Beijing. This reflects
its true color and creed i.e. ungrateful and back stabber. In pursuance of its efforts to gain hegemony
the world over it has also made territorial claims on Bhutan's Trashigang
district that includes its capital Timphu.
So instead to showing restrain to maintain world peace and tranquility,
it appears that China is on an expansionist policy and any show of back out
should not be taken on its face value, but the world order should ensure its
demilitarization and break its economic hegemony, akin to what was done with
Germany after Second World War, as China may retreat today strategically, but
will return back with same intentions a few years later, if not purged at this
stage. Indian army should also stand
along its border till such time that the Chinese Army withdraws its forces from
beyond striking range, as it may feign withdrawal and then turn back and attack
with full force, as it did in Galwan valley, which was saved by the sheer will
force and professionalism of our armed forces. Whereas on one hand after every round of
talks, China speaks of reducing tension in the region, but in the same breath
is increasing its military deployment on an everyday basis in the region. It appears that our Political leadership has
analyzed the situation well and made mirror deployment to match China and today’s
visit to Ladakh by our Prime Minister, is a direct message to China that its
expansionist policy will no longer be tolerated any adventurism will be
answered in a ‘Quid pro quo’ and this is the only language that the Chinese
understand. JAI HIND.
© S Roy Biswas
N.B – Most
of the photographs have been sourced from the internet and those shot by the
author carries the embedded copyright instructions
