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HOW CHINA STANDS IN LADAKH – A STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
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Details of occupation of heights by Indian forces till date
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In my previous blog, I
had made a detailed presentation of the reasons why China has been behaving in
the manner it is doing so now, this is because of its deep rooted expansionist
policy, coupled with the over-whelming desire of their present President Xi
Jinping to become the greatest leader of China and attain a stature bigger than
that of Mao Tse Tung. Apparently the
initial misadventure in Ladakh was aimed at diverting the attention of the
world and especially the citizens of China from the various vagaries that China
had to face both at International level as well as internally because of the
Wuhan/Corona virus. The closed country
like China wherefrom any significant information is difficult to come by, the
recent announcement of ‘Clean Plate’ initiative launched by their President is
indicative of the food grain security issues inside China, as coupled with the
financial setback and large scale flooding in the country, especially along the
Yangste River basin, has created a
looming food grain crisis that may implode into a full blown political crisis
in China and this is likely to impact the position of Xi Jinping during the
plenary session of the China Communist Party (CCP for short) scheduled to held
in October, 2020. In this conclave the
President is in process of presenting a future plan upto 2035, which is in
contrast with the present practice of putting up future plans upto next 05
(Five) years only. Therefore, the
emphasis is to present President Xi Jinping, is to assumed complete command as
the ultimate leader for China and in pursuance of this he is trying to divert
attention from internal turmoil and raising the external threat issues.
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Schematic presentation of Line of Actual Control (LAC) perception over the years
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Apart from the above
mentioned position, China has had a long history of expansionism and has grown
many folds by usurping territories of other neighboring countries (a copy of
the map as given in my previous blog is again enclosed for ready reference) and
thereafter imposing its regime using harsh and coercive means. The example of Tibet stands out and the
condition of its citizens is all but part of history now. However, the recent actions by China in Hong
Kong, which has been condemned all across the World, reflects its true intents
and machinations. It has also started
imposition of Mandarin language and implementation of CCP dictates in parts of
Mongolia usurped by it and the citizens there are up in arms against this
policy, but are facing brutal repression at the hands of Chinese. While referring to this kind of expansionist
policy by China, an old anecdote of Indian origin comes to my mind and the crux
of the story is that – ‘A Fox finds a lone lamb on a lonely stretch
of River and comes up on it and states that since the lamb drank water from the
part of the River that belongs to him, he would eat him up as punishment. The lamb cries out stating that it was only
eating grass on the River bank and did not drink water. The Fox quickly pronounces that if it was not
the lamb, than his father must have drunk water from his part of the river, so
he was to pay up for his crime and hence the Fox was going to eat it up’. Evidently, China follows this very principle
of the Fox and usurps land stating that historically Chinese had ruled this
part of the land. If one goes by the
same corollary, the most destructive and cruel ruler who had actually conquered
land from Mongolia to Iran, was Kublai Khan, who was Mongol and by that
corollary Mongolia should actually rule China, rather than being the other way
round. Similarly, I am placing a map of
the region ruled by Ashoka the Great from 263 to 232 B.C and accordingly, India
has unfettered rights all across the now disputed regions by China and also
right upto Indonesia, as Indian rulers in the past had conquered those parts
also and ruled there. This is actually a
very farfetched way of legitimizing illegal grabbing of land by China, but it
does so with aplomb and till now, those areas being geographically and
economically useless for the World at large, that was just trying to overcome
the economic ravage post World War-II, China got away without much ado by the
World community at large.
Map of India during Ashoka the Great
Now leaving aside the
light hearted banter against China and its policies, which it practices
stringently along with the use of false narratives, usually used by small
school children, of accusing the other of having raised his/her hands first
during a first fight in the School, the
Chinese tend to do the same at their foreign policy level too. China needs to grow out of its outdated thinking
process, as all facts are now a days verifiable through various means easily. At the time I had written the previous blog,
the details of Galwan clash were only coming out in bits and pieces. Now it is amply clear that the China had
started the aggression in a planned manner and in pursuance thereof, had
replaced the regular border guards with their so called elite forces. Therefore, when Col. Suresh Babu had walked
in believing that he would be speaking to the known face, he was surprised and
it is evident now that he had been attacked from behind with intent to
kill. The Chinese had presumed that
killing of the Commander would yield a morale downing blow upon the army
personnel posted there and they would in turn abandon their posts, which the
Chinese army would then occupy. The
Chinese militarily had three things in their favour – (a) An element of surprise;
(b) Especially detailed regiment with tailor made assault weapons best suited
for such combat situations; and (c) Numerical dominance in ratio of 1:3 (100
Indian soldiers as against 300 armed Chinese soldiers). However, what transpired was totally beyond
what the Chinese had comprehended, not only our forces physically removed them
from the spot but also inflicted such body blows that actually demoralized the
entire Chinese regiment to the extent that they had to be replaced and required
psychological counseling. Although India
lost about 20 of its gallant soldiers, but the Chinese have definitely lost a
substantial numbers and some claim that 106 had died (a photograph of the
graveyard earmarked for such deceased Chinese personnel is circulating in the
internet) , whereas a more definitive assessment is of 46 fatalities i.e. when
they were at a more advantageous position.
It is also reported in hushed tones that the Indian soldiers had also
captured the Commander of the said regiment during this skirmish. Thus, it is evident that at home exercises
are akin to playing video games and facing actual battle hardened forces on
ground is a totally different ball game altogether. However, China despite being aware of its
short comings now, is finding it difficult to accept the position, as withdrawal
at this stage could be counter-productive especially in view of the forthcoming
plenary session for President Xi Jinping, as being the overall military
commander, failure to achieve objective by the Chinese PLA could be
attributable to him. Therefore, having
gained some ground by attacking from behind the back, by occupying area upto
finger four in North Bank of Pangong Lake surreptitiously, a region that
hitherto had been jointly and severally patrolled by both India and China. However, China wanted to up the ante and
force India to coming to the negotiation table at a lower stature and China
wanted to bargain from a position of strength, as it would probably have sought
to bargain for recognition of the CPC corridor by India in the POK area, as it
is built on illegally occupied land by Pakistan and any unilateral decision by
India to annex this disputed territory would have brought down this entire
corridor of CPEC on to its knees. This
action would have caused unparalleled economic blow of about 45-50 billion
dollars to China, as it could not have taken India to any International court
also, having dealt illegally with Pakistan in using this disputed portion. The bogey of India seeking to take Aksai Chin
is being propagated by Chinese think tank, so as to somehow legalize its
transgression into Indian territory, in total defiance of the agreements signed
between the two nations, in contravention of all International laws in this
regard. The Chinese attempt to
unilaterally change their borders with India has been in practice since 1959
onwards. I am enclosing herewith a
screen shot of a schematic representation of the facts on record regarding the
Chinese transgression into Indian territories.
The red line across the Aksai Chin area was what Chinese perceived as
LAC and occupied it in Nov., 1959.
Thereafter, during the Sino-Indian war in 1962 the Chinese had advanced
upto the region marked by Blue line, but withdrew till the Red line in Sept.,
1962 and has been adhering to the same till May, 2020. However, the Chinese have again changed the
perception of LAC unilaterally and now again trying to gain area upto the Blue
line.
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A presentation of disputed area with China
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The reason that fueled
this present blog was the recent commendable act of the Indian armed forces,
when it thwarted another attempt by the Chinese armed forces to change the
perception of LAC by occupying certain heights on the Southern bank of the Pangong
Lake. However, on the ensuing nights of
29 & 30, August, 2020 the Indian army out maneuvered the Chinese army and
scaled the peaks of Thankung to Gurung Hill, Black top, Helmet top overlooking
Spanggur Gap (where Chinese Garrison is stationed), Magar Hill, Mukhpari,
Rezang La and Requin La. The Chinese
forces were beaten back and thus, India has established a dominating position
across the South bank of Pangong Lake overlooking the finger four top area,
thus the military dominance over heights at Pangong enjoyed by the Chinese
hereto, have been neutralized and China lost the bargaining point that it had
surreptitiously seized. The Chinese have
again tried to provoke the Indians entrenched in these positions, who has now
deployed the Militia squad (akin to BAT of Pakistan) comprising of local goons
and hooligans, for hand to hand combat in the region, by launching an frontal
attack on 7th Sept., 2020 but India has not allowed the Chinese to
gain an inch, which has further flustered the Chinese leadership including
President Xi Jinping. The Chinese media
started resorting to false propaganda, of Indian soldiers having fired in the
air to caution Chinese aggressors, but the photographs circulated in the press
by the Indian side has totally contradicted the Chinese stand and put them on
back foot. A copy of the photograph accessed
from the net is placed for benefit of readers in this blog.
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Grave of Chinese soldier killed in Galwan clash
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Having dealt with
briefly the recent face to face confrontations between the armed forces of the
two countries as explained hereinabove, it would be appropriate to discuss the
military strength of either side. China
has assumed that having more number of armed force personnel and advanced equipment’s
would give it an edge over India and accordingly, had ventured into a misadventure. Chinese goods are only as reliable as long as
they last, the latest incident of their J-10 fighter having crashed in Southern
China shows its immense technological capabilities, without being sarcastic, if
this incident is analyzed on merits, there are two scenarios, firstly that it
was hit by a Tiwanese missile, which has been denied by both the countries and
we should not dispute their stands, the next option would be that there was an
engine or guidance control mechanism failure and in such a scenario too, the
quality of the aircraft comes into question.
Thus, losing a so called State of Art aircraft at this point does not
augur well for the Chinese Air force. Flying
routine sorties and flying into enemy formations or fire line are two different
things and it is a fact on record that Chinese Airforce or armed forces have
never ever have faced any such war in the past, so their experience is more of
simulator based, rather than real war scenarios, as faced by Indian pilots and
forces. The prowess of Indian army has
already been established both in Galwan and South banks of Pangong. Any battle is never won by the machines it
possesses, but by men who ride and command them. China despite all its propaganda videos and
sabre rattling is well aware of this fact and coupled with this, their army
comprises mostly of four year conscripts (forced induction), most of whom are
single child’s and thus, are more pampered and focused more towards further
Education on completion of conscription, rather than to fight for the PLA and hence not motivated
enough and may run away from the field in case of any big adversity it faces, as
against their Indian counterparts, who are professionals, well trained,
motivated and serve on their own accord for the pride of their country.
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The expansionist policy of China explained on map
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Now looking at the entire scenario in hindsight, I
would like to refer to two studies conducted independently by International institutions
namely – i) Center for a New American
Security (CNAS) – study – ‘Imbalance of Power – India’s Military
choices in an era of Strategic competition with China’ of October, 2019
– link - https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/imbalance-of-power;
and ii) Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs of Harvard Kennedy School - ‘The Strategic Postures of China
and India – A Visual Guide’ of March, 2020 – link - https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/strategic-postures-china-and-india-visual-guide. Whereas, the first study relates to
assessment of India aligning with United States so as to balance the power
equation in the Asia Pacific region with the intent to contain China,
especially in the region. In this
assessment, which probably has been done more at academic level, since the
details of Indian deployments, infrastructure development in regions where
‘Inner line permits’ are required, are not easily accessible for foreigners,
hence the assessment of India being inadequate in this sector and would be slow
in deployment of troops etc. in the Himalayan region and China on the other
hand having had built ample infrastructure would be at a highly advantageous
position. The report further criticizes
India of going slow with its association with the Quad group i.e. United
States, Australia, Japan and India to dominate the entire Indian Ocean
region. It has been concluded in the
said study that China may take advantage of the situation and usurp Indian
territory along the Himalayan borders in active association with Pakistan, also
seize Indian Naval boats and other strategic assets etc. to be at a better
bargaining position, so as to pin down India at the negotiating table, so that
it gives up its key territories and negotiates as follows –
a) India signs a humiliating joint
statement by which Delhi apologizes for its provocations and formally
recognizes the Chinese-designated Dalai Lama;
b) Offer to agree to release the corvette
and its crew in exchange for India recognizing Chinese sovereignty over the
South China Sea and promising to ask for permission prior to “sailing through
China’s blue national soil.”;
c) Indian cession or demilitarization of
key terrain such as Bum La Pass, Jhamperi Ridge, Lakshadweep Island and the
Andaman and Nicobar islands.
The
second study on the other hand is based on open source information and an assessment of the military capabilities
of both the countries. However, it
is evident from this study that even though China may possess military
personnel and hardware much larger in numerically, yet the deployment level is
fairly even, as China has a much bigger border area to cover, especially having
drawn enmity with most of its neighbors because of its expansionist
policy. Thus, in case of limited
conflict, it would definitely be the man over the machine that is going to
decide the issue.
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Finger-4 area - satellite image of India-China positions as on 11th Sept., 2020
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The Chinese it appears were more
bolstered by the first report discussed hereinabove and akin to Pakistan strategy
crept across upto finger 4 region in the north banks of Pangong Lake in late
April/early May 2020 with the sole intent to gain physical/military and
strategically important position in the region, in total disregard of the practice
in place since 1962, wherein troops of either side patrolled the regions
between finger-4 to finger-8 areas, being a kind of buffer zone. By surreptitiously taking up position at
finger-4, the Chinese side unilaterally changed the status-quo and the Indian
side through its various diplomatic as well as military channels has been
trying to restore the status quo as it existed in April, 2020. The Chinese side does not appear to have any
intention of moving back, but on other hand has been amassing men and machine
by each passing day, albeit trying to assure India through various
meetings/statements etc. that it professed early disengagement in the region. The incident that happened at Galwan on 15th
June, 2020 was the first military set-back suffered by China and its
assumptions regarding prowess of its army i.e. PLA against the grit and
professionalism of Indian Armed forces came to the fore. The Chinese side all through since 5th
May, 2020 has been professing for peace and disengagement, but simultaneously
bolstering their military presence in the region. The Indian side has now clearly seen through
the Chinese game plan and despite an uneasy calm, tensions were palpable on the
borders. On the ensuing night of August
29-30, 2020 in a major development, on getting confirmed information of the
movement of forces on Chinese side, trying to change the status quo on the
northern banks of Pangong Lake by occupying higher regions, the Indian side too
reacted quickly and before the Chinese could advance further, the Indian side claimed
many peaks as detailed earlier in the blog.
Whereas, it took the Chinese army 13-14 hours to trudge upto the ridge
line, the Indian army bolstered by presence of Special Frontier Force (a
specially trained brigade comprising mainly of Tibetan and higher mountainous
region persons) had climbed these peaks in less than four hours, thus denying
Chinese any further access. Furthermore, there was another skirmish between the
troops on the 7th of September, 2020 wherein a contingent of Chinese
troops armed with spears, rod mounted machetes and automatic rifles tried to
overrun the recently acquired peaks, but were thwarted by the Indian army, but
first time in 45 years i.e. since 1975 fires were shot, albeit in air by the
Chinese forces. Instead of being
deterred by these Chinese activities, the Indian troops on 9th
September, 2020 has further occupied position along finger 4 area at an
altitude higher than that is occupied by the Chinese troops and hence by
dominating the heights now (they are about 300 meters apart at this height),
the Indian troops have turned the tables on the Chinese, but have done so very cleverly,
by staying on their side of LAC. The
Chinese leadership is totally aghast at the action of the Indian troops, as
their intentions of negotiating from position of strength has totally eroded
and now both the armies are now equally poised.
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Chinese soldiers with crude weapons - 7th Sept., 2020
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The intents of the Chinese are still
suspect, as even after seeking an audience with the Indian Defense Minister by
his Chinese counterpart during the SCO Summit on 4th Sept., 2020,
the official spokesperson of China went on to state that the responsibility of
entire crisis rested with India, in their Chinese version, but was not reiterated
in its English version. This shows that
the Chinese authorities are playing a double game with their own citizens, by
taking a tough stand and blaming India for all their acts, but refraining from
doing so at the International forum, because of the repercussions it is likely
to face in the international media.
Thereafter, on the ensuing 10th September, 2020 the Chinese
Foreign Minister had a meeting with his Indian counterpart as part of the SCO
summit and they have broadly agreed on a five points to reduce tension and for
de-escalation as per a joint statement. But
it has now percolated out that the Indian side had strongly and categorically
informed the Chinese side that the reason for such huge build up in Ladakh by
it, for no plausible reason, had to be countered by India and it rested on the
Chinese to de-escalate in such a scenario.
In my opinion, the Chinese cannot be
trusted and their President Xi Jinping is the true fox that I had narrated in
the anecdote in this blog. Like his
Pakistani counter-parts, he is bound to return back for foraging in this region
again. The Chinese side was totally
taken aback at the speed at which India was able to deploy its forces in a
mirror deployment, thus blunting the surprise element that China had
perceived. Further, China itself has now
been exposed against a professional force and is still counting its numbers of
dead soldiers. Even though China may
have been able to suppress the Galwan deaths from its civilian citizens, such
information travels quickly amongst the military establishments and this has
led to total demoralization of the PLA troops stationed in the region. Further, it is now apparent that President Xi
Jinping can gain nothing substantial to show for during the plenary session to
be held in October, 2020 and in case of any future mis-adventure, akin to Aug.,
29-30, 2020 incident that culminates on another failed mission for China, it
may turn the tables in the internal politics and he may not get another chance
to return to power. Coupled with the
above, with the winters setting in, which may be even earlier this year, the
movement of troops and artillery back to their bases may become a huge
challenge for China if it further delays its withdrawal and Indian forces with
help of Tibetan freedom fighters may damage its war machinery beyond repair
during the harsh winter season, as the Chinese would get restricted in their
activities, whereas Indian troops and Tibetans are well acclimatized to venture
into the region in deep snow and cold, as against their Chinese
counterparts. Therefore, the Chinese
have got themselves entrapped into a situation, which had initially been
envisaged by them as a win-win situation, but has now turned into a lose-lose
situation. They are now trying to find
an honorable exit from the situation, so that they re-work their strategy and
can come back for another round after the winters. On the other hand it is advisable that India now
being in a dominating position i.e. is in a position to enforce final
demarcation of the boundary between the two countries should continue to
consolidate all along from Ladakh, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal,
as the Fox (China) may try to dig a hole in any of these sectors to gain
leverage on the negotiating table. For
achieving this, India will have to work on a two pronged strategy – (i) To
destabilize Tibet by encouraging the revolutionary elements and it would be in
best interest of India, if Tibet can be liberated as an independent country;
and (ii) simultaneously engage Pakistan and take away, what is legitimately
ours i.e. Pakistan occupied Kashmir. If
India is even able to ensure the latter, the entire CPEC project of China would
go down the drain and then China would have no further interest left in
propagating Pakistan, which in due course will disintegrate into smaller
segments and no longer pose any problems for India, but India should ensure
that parts of Karachi, Gwadar etc. do not come under Chinese influence in
future too. The continued economic
strangle hold on China by the International community, shall ensure
disintegration of China too in the near future into smaller independent democratic
nations, whose citizens will be freed of the forced subjugation and tyranny
being faced by them, as these regions have been forcibly occupied by China (as
detailed in my previous blog) while expanding its territory, as even a balloon
explodes if it is stretched beyond a point.
Hope that this Chinese balloon blows up sooner than expected for the
sake of world peace.
© S Roy Biswas
N.B - All the diagrams/photos have been accessed from the internet
