Tuesday, 7 October 2025

Operation Sindoor - The doctrine change of Indian army

 

Operation Sindoor - The doctrine change of Indian army

[An analysis of the operations’ genesis and its effect]

 

Chief of the Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi with army and BSF personnel during his visit to Longewala, May 19, 2025
            Many would rate this article as too late, as per the context of the Operation, but it is an analysis based on official versions that were made available much later coupled with findings of independent fact finding agencies/persons.  The final confirmation of hits made by Indian Armed Forces were disclosed by Air Force Chief of Indian Air Chief Marshall Amar Preet Singh on 3rd October, 2025 [Brief of IAF Chief made during 3rd October, 2025 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-igMs1Cors} and hence the late posting of this blog.  Instead of providing with a very detailed analysis, I will touch upon all the aspects, with links provided to the relevant articles that highlight that specific issues. Let us begin with the build-up of the present scenario that resulted in the Operation Sindoor.
As per description given by Indian IAF Chief - the number of hardkills made by India during Operation Sindoor

The number of personnel killed by India as informed by IAF Chief - [FP=Fighter pilots]


Austrian military analyst had made this prediction way back in August, 2025
[Here is the link to the news - 
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/more-or-less-known-since-may-austrian-analyst-on-iafs-s-400-defence-system-that-shot-down-pak-aircrafts-in-operation-sindoor/]

The build-up

            Pakistan since its inception has been needling India needlessly that had resulted in three wars, all of which it had lost.  Thereafter, as Pakistan could not succeed, it started indirect proxy attacks through its’ terrorist network comprising of Laskar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad etc. duly backed by Pakistan’s ISI.  In this context, some of the major terrorist activities carried out by Pakistan during the 21st Century are the Car-bomb blast in front of Jammu & Kashmir Assembly on 1st October, 2001 that killed 27 people, which was followed by the devastating Parliament attack carried out on 13th December, 2001 wherein about 14 people lost their lives, there was no palpable response from the Indian side, probably because of the just concluded Kargil conflict of 1999.  The devastating Mumbai terror attack was carried out on 26th November, 2008 where about 166 people lost their lives and subsequent Mumbai serial blasts on 13th July, 2011 wherein about 26 people lost their lives [Details may be perused here - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7479386/ ].  After the change in Government in the centre in 2014, the perception about thwarting terrorist activities and change in military doctrine started evolving. 

           The first major terrorist activity that took place after 2014 was the January 2016 attack, the four-day attack on Indian air base in Pathankot left seven Indian soldiers martyred and six militants dead, the Garud Commandos of IAF played a pivotal role in eliminating the terrorists .  This was followed by the 18 September 2016 attack: wherein an army base in Uri in Kashmir was attacked by fidayeen (suicide attack) terrorists that killed 19 soldiers.  As a response this attack, for the first time the changed Indian doctrine was displayed, wherein a ‘Surgical strike’ was launched across the Pakistan LOC on 28th - 29th September 2016 [In case one would like to refresh their memories about this even here is a link to an article appearing in the press - https://sundayguardianlive.com/news/2016-surgical-strikes-marked-a-departure-from-strategic-restraint-to-responsible-retaliation-152039/ ]. 

             The second major terrorist activity took place in Pulwama on 14th February, 2019 wherein a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb in proximity of an army convoy that resulted in death of 40 Indian military personnel.  It was obvious that the Pakistan handlers/ISI had taken no lesson from the surgical strikes and therefore, the Indian government took the decision to strike at the terrorists training center at Balakote on 26th February, 2019, as usual Pakistan denied any loss in the attack, but it launched its air force to target some Indian bases in Kashmir as an retaliatory exercise.  Rest is history, as Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman while taking down a highly superior F-16 fighter with his almost obsolete MIG-21 fighter, was also shot down in return fire and captured by Pakistan, only to be returned back to India within a period of three days.  Those desirous of refreshing their memories may check out the press article - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-47370608.

             The latest cowardly major terrorist attack took place on 22nd April, 2025 wherein the terrorists walked upon the innocent tourists in Baisaran Valley in Pahalgam region of Kashmir and shot dead 26 tourists, 25 Indian and 1 Nepali citizen, after ascertaining their religious identity,  For those who want to recollect the details of this ghastly incident, here is a link to one of the articles available on the internet - https://www.vifindia.org/article/2025/april/28/Pahalgam-Terror-Attack-2025-Unmasking-Pakistan-s-Proxy-Hand-in-Kashmir.

Build up to launching of Operation Sindoor

             The Indian military doctrine has been fast evolving and its culmination was on display as a result of this latest dastardly act by the Pakistan based terrorists.  Instead of going in for a knee-jerk reaction, the government and the defense establishment made a detailed analysis of the responses available, the intelligence inputs and magnitude & manner of the strikes.  The apparent thought process indicates that the deterrence had to be precise and hard hitting. 

           The build up to the finale started after Pakistani establishment called it a ‘false flag’, as per of policy of denial of any terrorist activity from its soil.  But this time around no one was ready to buy its narrative and the first paradigm shift in Indian policy towards proxy war was noticed with India keeping in abeyance of ‘Indus River treaty’ on 23rd April, 2025 alongwith removal of certain Pakistani diplomatic staff from India by declaring them persona non-grata.  Simultaneously, the Attari-Wagah border was also sealed and any movement stopped and SAARC Visa suspended for Pakistan.  In response, Pakistan on 25th April, 2025 initiated the violation of the cease-fire agreement by firing artillery and small arms across the Line of Control (hereinafter referred to as LOC).  Thereafter, from 26th April, 2025 onwards there were repeated violations of the cease fire agreement by Pakistan and their political leaders and senior military establishment personnel started issuing threats of nuclear reprisal, if Indus water treaty was not restored and so on went the rant of Pakistanis.  Because of the false narratives being run by the Pakistani social media handlers, India banned their Youtube channels and other social media platforms in India on 6th May, 2025.

 Launch of Operation Sindoor

On the ensuing night of 6th & 7th May, 2025, after having made detailed assessment via ground intelligence and Satellite based intelligence, India launched its missiles and smart bombs etc. that destroyed 9 (Nine) terrorist bases in Pakistan, which was in retaliation of the gruesome Pahalgam attack on innocent Hindu civilians by Pakistan government backed terrorist organizations.  The terror camps hit by India were - Bahawalpur, Muridke, Gulpur, Bhimber, Chak Amru, Bagh, Kotli, Sialkot and Muzaffarabad.  India did not hit any other civilian or military installations of Pakistan and the information was also conveyed to Pakistan through diplomatic channels.  However, in retaliation Pakistan shelled the civilian areas situated along the border/LOC that resulted in death of 12 civilians on Indian side, but India did not retaliate to avoid unnecessary escalation, as it had conveyed the message loud and clear as envisaged by Prime Minister Narendra D. Modi, wherein he had stated that any terrorist act orchestrated by Pakistan based terrorist would henceforth be seen as an ‘act of war’ by India.  The terror camp run by the deranged terrorist Massod Azar was hit that resulted in deaths of many of his near and dear ones and their last rites were performed in presence of Pakistani military and Police officers in proper attire thereby lending credence to the fact that the terrorists involved in the proxy war with India had the direct backing of the Pakistani establishment.

At the funeral of killed terrorists in Muridke, prayers wereled by LeT Commander Abdul Rauf, a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the US Treasury. The top brass of the Pakistan Army and the Inspector General of Police in Pakistan's Punjab were seen attending the funeral and offering prayers. It was attended by Lt Gen Fayyaz Hussain, Major General Rao Imran, BrigadierMohd Furqan from Administration, Usman Anwar, a Pakistan Punjab Legislator, and Malik Sohaib Ahmed.(Arif ALI / AFP)

Terrorist camps hit by India on night of 6-7 May, 2025


Satellite Images Show Damaged Terror Camps in Pakistan | Vantage with Palki Sharma | N18G –
here is the link to the news - https://youtu.be/c15A7eoD_Mo?si=bDIkf32YB1SuSxnr]

           Pakistan on 8th May, 2025 continued with its tirade against India and also stepped up shelling across LOC using Mortars and heavy-caliber Artillery in areas adjoining Kupwara, Baramulla, Uri, Poonch, Mendhar, and Rajouri sectors in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan also tried to strike 14 military targets in India using drones (specifically of Turkish make and there are reports that in the Command and Control Centers Turkish Officials were also posted to oversee the strikes) and missiles (mainly of Chinese make) — but they were all neutralized by the Integrated Counter UAS Grid and Air Defense systems.  The Pakistanis used to launch their attacks in the evening hours, presuming that akin to Balakote strike wherein they had failed to intercept the strike and some leaders stated that it was because of darkness and clouds overhead, they thought that the Indian armed forces would also not be able to see their drones/missiles at night (Pun intended).  In retaliation to these unprovoked attempted attacks on Indian military installations and in order to make Pakistan understand the gravity of the situation, especially when India had specifically avoided hitting any military installations initially, the Indian Armed Forces struck Pakistan’s Air Defense systems (Lahore neutralized).  Emergency meeting chaired by PM Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan authorized their armed forces to take action after strikes on account of ‘violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty.’  During the interim, intense diplomatic maneuvers by USA and Saudi Arabia with India and Pakistan took place.  India shut down 8 (Eight) Airports along the border areas as a means of abundant precaution to avoid any stray hits by Pakistani drones or missiles.  On the other hand Pakistan continued to use its flying civilian aircrafts as shield against possible Indian missile attacks, presuming that any stray missile hitting a Pakistani civilian aircraft would result in an international hue & cry.  It would be imperative to state here that the Pakistanis fired a salvo of Chinese made Air to Air missile known as PL-15 and none of them hit the target and were recovered intact (in some cases) by the Indian government and information shared with many anti-China countries.

Chinese made PL-15 [Air to Air missile] recoverd almost intact in India
Chinese made Surface to Air defense system HQ9 obliterated by Indian forces in Lahore

On 9th May, 2025 in its official press briefing, India accused Pakistan of targeting military sites, which Pakistan later denied as usual. Indian border defense force i.e. BSF meanwhile foiled major infiltration bid by terrorists, supported by Pak Rangers (Seven terrorists were killed in action by the BSF) on night of 8th May, 2025.  Defense Minister met CDS and all three Service Chiefs.  Later, PM Modi chaired a high-level meeting with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, NSA Ajit Doval, CDS, and the three service chiefs. Kartarpur Corridor services were temporarily paused till cessation of hostilities.  Decision regarding further course of action was taken in the aforementioned meetings and Pakistan that was under the impression that its nuclear deterrence would force India to stay away from attacking their military installations.  However, hectic diplomatic parleys by both countries continued throughout the day.

 On ensuing night of 9th-10th May, 2025 India hit back with a precise and severe manner using its smart bombs, missiles and S-400.  India fired back at key Pakistani air bases, inflicting heavy damage at Murid, Rafiqui, and Sargodha bases, as well as the garrison city of Rawalpindi.  Indian Army destroyed Pakistani posts at LoC and confirmed Pakistani military bases were also targeted namely - Rafiqui, Murid, Chaklala, Rahim Yar Khan, Sukkur, Chunian, Radar site in Pasrur, Aviation base in Sialkot,  All the Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes were thwarted by Indian air defense systems namely Integrated Counter UAS Grid and Air Defense that comprised of Akash Surface to Air missiles etc.  Pakistan was forced to close its airspace.  Pakistan in response launched Operation: Buryan ul Marsoos against India.  Simultaneously, BSF Jammu destroyed terrorist launch pads in Looni   region of Pakistan.  Later on during the daytime of 10th May, 2025 Indian spokesperson and Foreign Secretary held a short briefing wherein despite claims by US President of having brokered a ceasefire informed the Press & Media as follows - "The Director General of Military Operations of Pakistan called DGMO of India at 15:35 hrs earlier this afternoon...It was agreed that both sides will stop firing on land, air, and sea from 17.00 hours IST…DGMO will talk again on 12 May."  Later on EAM Jaishankar informed as follows -  "India and Pakistan have today worked out an understanding on stoppage of firing and military action...India has consistently maintained a firm and uncompromising stance against terrorism..."

Pakistan military bases hit by India on 9-10th May, 2025 

In the ensuing days, the Pakistani politicians and its military brass started spreading fake narrative of having won the war and thanked the foreign help received from the United Kingdom, Turkiye, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and China and also conferred the title of ‘Field Marshall’ upon their Army Commander Asif Munir, who actually should have been called as the ‘Failed Marshall’ [Pun intended].  Despite the claims made by Pakistan, they could not provide a single proof of having hit any Indian Army targets inside India, whereas there are umpteen number of such satellite images available that show the damage caused to Pakistani bases during operation Sindoor.  Here are the details of damages caused to Pakistan Armed forces locations -

 


Rafiqui Air Base - Located in Jhang district, about 337 km south of Islamabad, this base has a 10,000-foot runway and a parallel taxiway suitable for emergency operations. Named after 1965 war hero Sqn Ldr Sarfraz Ahmed Rafiqui, it hosts several tactical attack and operational units, making it a Mirage III hub under Central Air Command.

Murid Air Base, Sialkot - This base is part of the Northern Air Command and is located in the Chakwal area. It lacks any permanent squadrons and has a 9,000-foot asphalt runway. However, because of its closeness to India, it is strategically significant and can accommodate both fighter jets and UAV operations. Its ability to handle drones has improved due to recent infrastructure improvements.  It houses the UCAV and UAV fleet of the PAF, including Turkiye-made Bayraktar TB2s and Shahpar-I. It also has facilitates for Pilot training and air surveillance.

Noor Khan Air Base, Chaklala - Formerly RAF Station Chaklala, this base has historical significance dating back to WWII. It currently operates as a transport base and hosts the No. 10 MRTT Squadron with Il-78 aerial refueling tankers. It also has a history of cooperation with the U.S. military during the Afghanistan war and disaster relief operations.  During Operation Sindoor Indian forces destroyed one F-16 and a C-130 damaged in a precision strike

Masroor Airbase, Karachi - The largest airbase in Pakistan and one of the largest in Asia by area, PAF Base Masroor houses the No. 32 Tactical Attack Wing. It operates a wide range of aircraft including JF-17s, Mirage variants, and AEW&C systems. This base is vital for defending Pakistan's southern and coastal regions.

Rahim Yar Khan, Bhawalpur, Punjab - The damage to the Rahim Yar Khan airbase includes a massive crater in the middle of the runway, making the airbase nearly unusable for Pakistan. The base, which also houses an airport, was hit when operations were off at the airport, mitigating the risk to civilian flights.

Sukkur, Bholari Sindh - Located in Jamshoro district, this is one of the newest operational bases. It houses the 19 Squadron (OCU) and operates F-16A/B Block 15 ADF aircraft under Southern Air Command.

Shabaz Air Base, Jacobabad, Sindh - Hosting the No. 5 and No. 11 Squadrons (both operating F-16s), this base also facilitates Lockheed Martin maintenance teams. It falls under Southern Air Command and includes the No. 39 Tactical Wing and SAR units equipped with AW139 helicopters.

Bloari Air Base, Karachi - The Bholari airbase in Sindh province, located less than 100 miles from the port city of Karachi, was one of nearly a dozen air force targets struck by India during Operation Sindoor. Commissioned in December 2017, it was regarded as one of Pakistan’s most advanced main operational bases. It is home to the 19 Squadron and the Operational Conversion Unit (OCU), operating F-16A/B Block 15 ADF aircraft. The strike during operation Sindoor destroyed an F-16 parked inside a hangar, killing five PAF personnel, including a Squadron Leader and the Chief Technician. The AWACS Erieye at the same base was severely damaged and later repaired with urgent support from US Air Force engineers.

Chunian - Chinese – YLC-8E – This advanced 3D surveillance system was transferred from China's military inventory to Pakistan in 2023 and is a flagship of Chinese stealth detection technology, designed to detect stealth aircraft like the F-22 and F-35. The destruction of the YLC-8E is seen as a significant blow to Pakistan's air defense capabilities and a dent in the reputation of the Chinese military technology it represents.  

Radar site in Pasrur - American ANTPS Radar/TPS-77 – In 2005, the United States awarded a contract for six TPS-77 units to Lockheed Martin, which were delivered to Pakistan to provide continuous air surveillance. The TPS-77 radar is capable of tracking aircraft up to 450 kilometers away and 30 Kms. in height is designed for long-range surveillance and early.

[Operation Sindoor: How Indian Air Force grounded Pakistan’s Air Power – here is the link to the news with satellite photographs attached - https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/operation-sindoor-how-iaf-grounded-pakistans-air-power/articleshow/121094154.cms]

[Operation Sindoor wrecked Pakistani airbases, destroyed F-16s and AWACS; US stepped in for urgent repairs – here is the link to the news with satellite photographs - https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/operation-sindoor-wrecked-pakistani-airbases-destroyed-f-16s-and-awacs-us-stepped-in-for-urgent-repairs-article-13599652.html]

 

[Pakistan’s F-16, J-17 fighter jets destroyed in Operation Sindoor, says IAF chief - https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india-pakistan-news/india-downed-five-f-16-jf-17-pakistani-jets-in-may-conflict-says-iaf-chief/ - 3rd October, 2025] 

Chinese released image of Adampur base - duly fact checked and debunked by military analyst Mr.Damien Symon

Claim being made by Pakistani media handlers regarding taking down of Indian S-400 System debunked by Mr.Damien Symon

            Despite such overwhelming proof available worldwide on social media as well as specific military related websites, the Pakistanis continue to drum their win wherever they get a chance to do so.  Be it in political arena or any other arena like cricket (remember Harris Rouf antics), Pakistan continues with its false narrative.  However, being over smart sometimes paves the way for getting exposed and similarly Pakistan during its Independence day celebrations awarded valour related medals to its military personnel, both in person as well as posthumously.  For those interested in knowing about the medals that Pakistan grants to its military personnel for valour are as follows - 1 Nishan-e-Haider (Order of the Lion); 2.Hilal-e-Jurat (Crescent pf Courage); 3.Sitara-e-Jurat (Star of Courage); 4.Tamga-e-Jurat (Medal of Courage); and 5. Imtiazi Sanad (Mentioned in Despatches).  However, by given such posthumous medals for its so called retaliation to Operation Sindoor, it awarded such medals for commendable acts during the so called Operation: Buryan ul Marsoos.  But what it acknowledged by doing so, especially to those killed in the operations, is that it accepted loss of military life and its failed attempt, for example, it awarded Sitara-e-Jurat to four of its pilots, who flew suicide mission in an attempt to hit S-400 units, but as the range of their missiles were only 250 Kms., whereas, the S-400 has a range of 400 Kms. and it had been effectively displayed by hitting a Pakistani AWACS at a distance of 314-319 Kms., thus creating a world record for such a kill.  So the Pakistani pilots in the Chinese made planes flew into definitive death in a formation of four aircraft, with two leading ones meant to be the target and the other two flying in from behind would target the S-400 system, sadly all four targets were hit resulting in casualty of all four Pakistani pilots that has been now indirectly been accepted by Pakistan.  On other hand despite rhetoric’s and photo shopped images uploaded by Pakistani media managers and also their Chinese counterparts, all of their narratives fell flat on the face, after some fact checking and I am enclosing a few such photographs duly countered by a foreign military expert.

[Pakistani Gallantry Awards List Reveals 138 Of Its Soldiers Died In Operation Sindoor - https://odishabytes.com/pakistani-gallantry-awards-list-reveals-138-of-its-soldiers-died-in-operation-sindoor/]

© S Roy Biswas

N.BAll the photographs have been sourced from the internet.

Sunday, 6 April 2025

Three years of Ukraine war – a general analysis of the scenario

                 Three years of Ukraine war – a general analysis of the scenario

Current view of areas under Russian occupation

            On completion of two years of war with Russia, I had published a blog wherein I had made a detailed analysis of the past historical background and present day i.e. what was existing in February, 2024 scenario of Ukraine and to read the blog you may check it out at - https://shantanuroybiswas.blogspot.com/2024/02/two-years-of-ukraine-war-general.html .  In the concluding paragraphs of the said blog I had observed as follows – “The evaluation/assessment of capabilities of Zelensky as President by the Western media can be gauged from the headline of the BBC post that read as – ‘Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky: The comedian president who is rising to the moment -  link is as follows - (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59667938).  Evidently, Zelensky has been led into a trap by the West, rather than Putin falling into one, as is being portrayed by many Western media analysts.  It was a Hobson’s choice for Putin, as Russia needs to keep its borders neutral as far as possible, so as not to bleed militarily in future with Western (read NATO) forces breathing down its neck and in stark contrast Zelensky because of his lack of political acumen and poor academic background, has pushed Ukraine back to the pre- industrialization days in physical sense”.  Evidently, rather than being a trap for him, it now appears that Zelensky has been minting money at cost of this war and is the pivotal reason for extending this conflict and the present analysis points towards this.

       The war between Ukraine and Russia erupted on 24th February, 2022 and after initial Russian breakthrough that was followed by a counter offensive by Ukraine in August, 2022 whereby they had been able to take a chunk of their land back from Russian occupation, it had almost reached a stalemate over the past two years.  Both the concerned were making claims and counter-claims of inflicting heavy damage to the other.  This stalemate continued and it is evident that the American ‘deep state’, which now stands exposed, of having tried to influence and interfere in affairs of foreign countries, including India, was a chief propagator with sole intent of destabilizing Russia and its leadership.  With the change of political leadership in United States of America (hereinafter being referred to as America) in January, 2025 their new President H.E Mr. Donald Trump, the things were apparently moving in the right direction.  Mr.Trump had seen through the game of President of Ukraine i.e. Vladomir Zelensky and also the manner in which American tax payer’s money was being used to fund the Ukraine-Russia war, for benefitting some of the ex-Presidents allies & business partners.  Mr. Trump had called the bluff and asked the Ukraine President to end the war and also to pay for the American war merchandise by signing a pact in respect of mineral wealth of Ukraine.  However, Mr.Zelensky tried to play to the gallery, being a veteran actor, in the White House, assuming that it would put Mr.Trump in an awkward situation and he would be forced to tag the old line, but his ploy misfired and the spat became nasty that led to President Trump calling Zelensky a ‘dictator’ – here is the link to the said news - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/19/dictator-trump-feuds-with-zelenskyy-amid-negotiations-over-ukraine-war .  Thereafter, America had called off all the American war aid to Ukraine and also stopped providing them with the military intelligence as well, but the later has now been restored. 

After this action on part of America, I had been optimist that this ugly war would now conclude albeit after a short duration.  However, it appears that now the European Union alongwith Britain is trying to continue this war and that actor Zelensky is trying to portray that Russia will attack all NATO allies.  This stand is practically impossible in a war scenario, as to either attack the whole of Europe or to occupy and continue with such occupation, both appear to be a farfetched option or theory.  I have explained in my previous blog, the reason for Russia to take this offensive stand, but the intent of the European Union and Britain appears to plunge Ukraine into further chaos.  It is evident that President Trump has been actually trying to usher in a peace agreement and in this regard he had identified Saudi Arabia as a neutral venue to negotiate the said peace agreement.  It would be pertinent to mention here that President Zelensky had visited Saudi Arabia on 10th March, 2025 in this connection - https://www.reuters.com/world/zelenskiy-heads-saudi-arabia-ahead-crunch-us-talks-2025-03-10/ .  Whereas, on one hand Zelensky was in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a peace deal with Russia, on the other hand while in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine forces launched a major offensive against Russia - https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/11/europe/ukraine-moscow-drone-attack-intl-hnk/index.html - hitting targets as far as Moscow.  This reflects his double standards, as wherein on one hand Ukraine President was engaging in peace talks in Saudi Arabia and on the other hand it was provoking Russia, shows the actual intent of the double faced Zelensky, who was seeking a reprisal from Russia, so that he could cry foul before the International media, which had been his game plan all through the war. 

 After protracted negotiations, President Trump had made a small step forward in restoring peace between Ukaraine and Russia by brokering a 30 day peace deal, with condition to stop attacks in the Black Sea region [to have safe passage of civilian ships etc.] and not to attack each other’s energy related installations - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/18/russias-putin-agrees-to-30-day-halt-in-attacks-on-ukraine-energy-targets and https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/25/russia-and-ukraine-agree-to-halt-black-sea-strikes-us .  However, this ceasefire in respect of energy installations was very short lived as both the parties, within days of the brokered peace deal, have accused each other of violating the accord - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-energy-facilities-targeted-by-ukraines-drones-2025-03-19/ and subsequently also such allegations have surfaced -  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/26/ukraine-russia-trade-accusations-of-violating-us-brokered-truce .    It is evident that neither side is willing to yield, but Russia is in a position to continue with the war and it has now started hammering Ukraine properly and with use of brute force - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/4/russia-stalls-ceasefire-talks-as-it-intensifies-attacks-on-ukraine and will continue to do so.  The so called European Union and Britain and the NATO without America, is no position to provide much solace of Ukraine in the war mongering game, as it has neither the military industrial set-up nor the infrastructure to prolong the war against Russia, as per their doctrine of forcing and subjugating Russia to come to the negotiation table.  A brief stand taken by the European Union and Britain has summed up in this news article by the Associated Press - https://apnews.com/article/eu-defense-funds-weapons-ukraine-ammunition-russia-d472d36e583f1bd7ebf54e5826b9e752 .  

 Looking at the ongoing Russian military onslaught, coupled with lack of military hardware availability of the EU and Britain taken all together, it has only an edge in the air power only albeit Russia’s missile program boasting of a plethora of hyper-sonic missiles.  Therefore, it is in best political interest of Ukraine to broker a peace deal, if there is no Ukraine remaining, where will Zelensky rule? is a common sense interpretation, but evidently as per accusations against him of siphoning off the aid money, it appear to be a palpable fact that is leading Zelensky to continue with the war or else if Zelensky was actually fighting for the interest of Ukraine, he should seek an early peace deal to rebuild his country and simultaneously seek a symbolic United Nations peace force as buffer between the two countries, with the Russian speaking regions conquered by Russia being governed as autonomous regions under UN aegis or else the entire Ukraine could be lost to Russia forever, as Russia has the entire Ukraine under its shadow with armaments being stationed in Belarus also.

© S Roy Biswas

 

N.B – All the photographs, maps, video links have been sourced from the internet – as the article is for free academic use, specific permissions have not been solicited

 

 

 

 

 


Monday, 16 September 2024

Manipur conflict – an analysis of its origin and reasons thereof

 

Manipur conflict – an analysis of its origin and reasons thereof

Manipur in turmoil 

The Manipur incident had exploded as a national news way back after the 3rd May, 2023 incident, when a Kuki protest congregation had turned violent and attacked Meitei villages and inflicted casualties, which appeared to be a pre-mediated event.  However, the violence after initially simmering vigorously for a few months, was slowly settling down, when the current spate of rocket and so called drone attacks, has again catapulted the State onto the national news headlines.  Although a senior Police functionary has turned down the drone attack theory, which was purportedly being circulated as a fake video of some other conflict zone, but the deep distrust amongst the two tribes has just started simmering again, just before the assembly elections are due for some north Indian States, slated to begin in a few months’ time and the Election Commission has already notified the same.  This made me do a bit of research and to publish this current blog, about my take on this issue.

The map of Manipur

A brief Geography, culture and History

[This part covers the tribes of Manipur and their origin etc. of Meitei’s]

The State of Manipur is a small State in the North-eastern region of India.  It is geographically situated being bordered by Nagaland in the North, Mizoram in the South, Cachar district of Assam in the West and bordering Myanmar in the East. The land surface of Manipur is 22,347 sq. kms. About 90% of the land mass of Manipur is mountainous.  In 1826, Manipur was brought into India by the treaty of Yandavo by Raja Jai Singh with the British at the end of the Indo-Burmese war. This followed a dispute in accession to the throne. With the intervention of the British, the dispute was settled. In 1891 Churachand was nominated the Raja and it came under British rule as a princely state. During World War-II, Imphal (capital of Manipur) was occupied by the Japanese. After Indian independence Manipur became a Union Territory and subsequently achieved statehood in January 21, 1972. 

The Meitei's of Manipur

            The people of Manipur comprise of Meitei, Bishnupriyas, Naga, Meitei Pangal (Muslim Meitei community) and other smaller communities which have lived together in complete harmony for centuries.  The inhabitants of Manipur have been identifying themselves as "Manipuris" since centuries. The land of Manipur was formerly divided into small territories occupied by different clans, namely - Khumals, Moirangs, Angoms, Luwangs, Ningthoujas etc. The territories occupied by them were identified as per the names of their respective clans. Some of the clans are of Aryan branches and some belong to Kuki-chin branch.  Therefore, different clans of the Aryan and Mongoloid people lived side by side in Manipur for centuries. In course of time the Meitei’s (the Ningtauja clan) occupied all the territories towards 15th century AD and established a sovereign kingdom known as ‘Meitei Leipak’ (the land of Meiteis).  Historians also equivocally agree that the Bishnupriyas were also living in the Valley of Manipur from centuries before the establishment of that "Meitei- Laipak" (Sometimes refers as to be Senalaipak, Kongleipak, Metrabak etc.). The Meiteis called the Bishnupriyas as ‘Mayangs’ and the history Manipur can be traced back the 7th century AD, it could have its origin earlier too, but the same is not well documented.

A Meitei Pangal (Muslim) family in Manipur

As regards the name Meitei and Bishnupriya, there is a story prevalent and found in local Meitei purana or puya called "Khumal Purana". This purana states that conversion of Meiteis into Hinduism by Shri Santidas Babaji in 19th century at the instance of the then King Shri Pamhaiba and it was aimed at linking up the with the Aryans, the mainstream of people of Manipur and their language too with Sanskrit. The Aryans, the followers of Lord Vishnu denied to accept the initiation by Shri Santadas Babaji , whereas the others accepted. Thus, the Manipuri people Aryan and Kuki-chin group have been classified and renamed as Bishnupriya and Meiteis.  Thus, the term ‘Manipur’ and ‘Manipuris’ have been in use by both the Meiteis and the Bishnupriyas commonly with equal right to them; and practically, people of both these clans used these two terms ‘Manipur’ and ‘Manipuris’ without any reservation to identify their land and themselves respectively.  Further, culturally, the Meiteis and Bishnupriyas cannot be distinguished from each other. Both these two clans developed a homogeneous culture and the concept of being one community was ingrained over centuries.

 [Origin etc. of Kuki’s]

            Much of the history that we know about the Kukis is through colonial records. The name “Kuki” was perhaps used for the first time in British documents in 1777 when the British Governor General Warren Hastings was asked for help against Kuki raids from the hills by the chief of Chittagong.  Incidentally, these tribes were also called Lushais by the British and Chins by the Burmese. Historians believe that the name “Kuki” itself is an exonym, meaning that it was a name given by outsiders of a community or group of communities and not one native to the state of Manipur.  The 1886 Gazetteer of Manipur which was based on this census data further recorded approximately 8,000 ‘old Kukis’ in Manipur, who traditionally lived in the state, and about 17,000 ‘new Kukis’ who migrated from Lushai Hills in the south during the early 19th century.  These tribes, which later came to be identified and referred to as Kuki-Chin groups had similar linguistic and cultural affinities and their populations are found in all north eastern states of India today (apart from Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim).

Kuki's of Manipur

             In a critique of the largely colonial historiography of the Kukis, other historians and researchers, especially indigenous academics, have found this view of Kukis as painted by colonial writings as deeply erroneous and one-sided.  Anecdotes about the exogamous origins of the word “Kuki” which some colonial accounts dubbed as a “Bengali word” and the “perceived notion that they (Kukis) were immigrants from the south in the latter half of the 19th Century remains the “most erroneous view” of a deeply subjective colonial historiography,” noted Haoginlen Chongloi in his paper “Wave Theory Kuki Perspective on Migration”.  Professor Gangumei Kabui also noted the same in his article ‘History of Manipur’.

Some foreign backed Kuki militants in Manipur

On the other hand, Kukis of present day Manipur can be traced back to as early as the historic times along with or after the Meitei advent in Manipur Valley, explains Ngamjahao Kipgen, Associate Professor of Sociology at the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati.  Kuki academic Thongkholal Haokip adds that Buddhist literature written by Lama Taranathaduring the 15th century also has accounts of Kukis (Ko-ki) in their present habitat.  Incidentally, Pooyas, traditional records maintained by Meitei Kings mention how “two Kuki chiefs named Kuki Ahongba and Kuki Achouba were allies to Nongba Lairen Pakhangba, the first historically recorded king of the Meithis [Meiteis], in the latter’s mobilization for the throne in 33 AD,” Haokip wrote in a 2010 paper.  “The question of their citizenship undebatable”. Chongloi adds that Kukis followed a wave pattern of migration and these patterns can be traced with respect to the location of the purported “khul” or cave to which the Kukis mythologically trace their origin.  The question, then, should perhaps not be about when the Kukis came to Manipur but instead framed as “Who are the people who identify as Kuki and since when?” Such a probe seems to better describe the complexities of the historical narratives surrounding Kukis.

High Court orders leading to protests - a collage of reportings

            In Kuki mythology and cultural history, the Kuki-Chins emerged from a cave called ‘Sinlung’, or a rock called ‘Chhinlung’ or from the ‘khul’. While the location of this khul orits actual existence has remained unverified, the place is real in the collective memory of the Kuku-Chin people and an important aspect of their identity-building process.  “In their self-perception, the Kuki-Chin groups believe that all of them originated from the same place and that they have a common social origin and share descent”, Kipgen writes.  For instance, many Kuki groups believe the mythical folk hero Gaalngam to be their progenitor. His “history” is recorded in material artefacts like footprints, paw marks, engravings on rock slabs, etc. Present-day Churachandpur district of Manipur, a stronghold of Kukis, is said to house the footprints of the mythical Gaalngam and his herds of Mithun and there is even a memorial on the spot to mark the place by the Hmar Kuki tribe that refers to him as their “grandfather”.  While these myths cannot really be verified, as with myths of other religions, they play an important role in building the cultural identity of Kukis and find resonation in songs, art, poetry, cultural events and even bedtime stories of Kukis.

Some Kukis with placards in Mizoram - instance of foreign hand clearly seen

Among the Kukis, there has been a perception of a single homeland for all Kukis tribes-Zale’n-gam. While the physical demarcations of this homeland might not be found on any map, the place exists in the memories of the Kuki ancestors.  “Zale’n-gam is an ideological concept propounded by PS Haokip, the President of the KNO, which means ‘freedom of the people in their land’,” Kipgen explains.  Haokip propagated the ideology of Zale’n-gam as the means to unite the erstwhile ancestral domain of the Kukis prior to the British rule and restore the Kuki nation Zale’n-gam. It encapsulates and expounds the essence of Kuki history and nationalism and the restoration of the erstwhile Kuki territory in the pre-colonial period.  “There has been a desire to unify all the Kuki inhabited areas into a single administrative unit.  Currently, their demand is for a separate homeland/Kukiland within the framework of the Constitution.  However, Kipgen highlights that despite the Kukis’ search for Zale’n-gam beyond the Meitei kingdom of Kangleipak (Manipur), the two communities have coexisted peacefully for time immemorial and did not interfere in each other’s internal affairs, even offering help in the face of common enemies.  An example of this amity was noted in 1810 when the then Meitei King Chourajit sought help from Kukis to fight the Burmese army. Historians also state that Kuki chiefs supplied irregulars to guard the Meitei Maharajah and his Kingdom which was resisting the merger agreement on the eve of Manipur’s annexation to India in 1949 when the kingdom was merged with the Indian Union.

 Political scenario of Manipur after India’s Independence

Recent Meitei march in Imphal

Manipur had ceased to be an independent kingdom in 1891 when Britain took it over after its victory in the Anglo-Manipur War. The assassination of British officials led to the Battle of Khongjom, officially commemorated by the state on 23rd of April every year.  Another tragedy related  to  the  conflict,  celebrated annually  as  Patriots’  Day,  is  the  public  hanging  in  Imphal  of  two prominent  combatants,  Thangal  General  and  Tikendrajit  Yuvaraj  on August 13, 1891.  The  loss  of  the  state  to  Britain  was  acknowledged  as  part  of British India’s expansion to defend its eastern borders, which inevitably resulted in the loss of Manipur’s independence. As Britain did not annex the Kingdom, but Manipur became another indigenous State  with  administrative  and  political  sovereignty  vested  in  the Maharaja, but  restricted to  the Valley, and  Britain overseeing  the outer Hill  districts  populated  by  tribal  people.  The  presence  of  a  British resident  in  Imphal  emphasized  the ‘independent’  kingdom’s  sub-ordinate position even more.  British deepened the divide between the hills and the valley, as per their doctrine of ‘divide and rule’, which is more or less a source of conflict in recent times. Manipur has had a chequered political history.

 In 1946, Irabot and Longjam Bimol established the Praja  Sangh  political party to achieve  an  independent Manipur.  Their  goal  entailed  the creation  of  a parliament,  constitution  and  a  cabinet replacing  the  monarchy in which  the  people’s  representatives  would  govern  the  state  based  on socialist principles.  These ideals faced  opposition from individuals  who went  on  to  form  the  Manipur  Congress,  a  political  party  that  had  no affiliation with  the Indian National  Congress. In 1947, a constitution- making committee, chaired by F.F.  Pearson, President of the Manipur State Durbar, drafted the Manipur Constitution.

           Following India’s independence from British rule in 1947, India’s first Home  Minister, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, initiated the  integration of  more  than  six  hundred  princely  kingdoms  into  the  newly  formed Indian Union.  The process of assimilating these incongruent states was lengthy. After India gained its independence, Akbar Hydari, the Governor of Assam at the time, visited Manipur to  evaluate the political situation and  examine  the  possibility  of  Manipur  becoming  a  part  of  India. Hydari’s visit provided the central government insights into the views of both the Maharaja and the people of Manipur, which helped the Indian government in its decision-making process.

       In September 1949, Maharaja Bodh Chandra Singh was invited by Akbar Hydari to Shillong for discussions on integration. On the first day of  the  conference,  Hydari  presented  the  Maharaja  with  a  pre-written ‘Merger  Agreement,’  which  stipulated the  integration  of  Manipur  into the Indian Union. The Maharaja insisted that the deal could not be signed without consulting the Council of Ministers.  Despite his offer of consultations, the Maharaja was placed under house arrest and barred from communicating with anyone outside.  Consequently, on September 21, 1949, the Maharaja was coerced into signing the ‘Merger Agreement’ with India. The newly formed Indian government in New Delhi dismissed the then  elected Manipur  government, and pressed Maharaja  Bodh Chandra  to  sign  a  merger  agreement  on  that  day.  The Assembly was dissolved, and Manipur was reduced to a ‘Part-C state,’ and designated as a Chief Commissioner’s Province on October 15, 1949.  At this time Manipur’s Kuki leaders, rejected the Manipur Merger Agreement, believing it compromised the geographical integrity of the Kukis.

         An  Advisory  Council  was  formed  in  1950  to  make recommendations  on  the  State’s  management  and  Manipur  was designated as a Union Territory on November 1, 1955. It was replaced by a Territorial Council of thirty elected and two nominated members in 1957.  Despite lacking functional  power, the  Government of  Union Territories Act  of  1963  created  a  Legislative  Assembly  of  thirty  elected  and  three nominated  members.  The  top  executive  was  appointed  at  the  rank  of Lieutenant Governor  on December 19,  1969.  Following lengthy protests in Manipur and elsewhere in India, Manipur was granted full statehood on January 21, 1972, and the same year witnessed the first state elections held under Indian sovereignty.

             This merger of the State with India in 1949 nevertheless led to a wider gulf between the hill dwellers and the plains men.  Under this new system, various hill areas under the British administration became a ‘Scheduled Area’ and the Acts forbid the plain peoples (Meiteis) to settle in tribal areas/the hilly region. This clearly alienates the Meiteis and the tribals (the Nagas and the Kukis), Kipgen adds.  Over the past decades the Kuki identity, however, has also undergone changes with several Kuki groups claiming tribalistic self-assertion. The Hmars, an old Kuki tribe, claim to identify neither as Naga nor Kuki while some other Kuki tribes like the Anal and the Monsang, are assimilating Naga identity.  These shifts, however, now bears the effect of the ongoing violence between Kukis and Meiteis in Manipur, which has put the Kuki identity at the center of controversy and further complicated Kuki identity as it fights a violent battle for legitimacy against the dominant majority of the land.

         There was a spate of insurgency related incidents, fueled specifically by the Kuki militant organizations, as  a  result  of  the  violence  in  Manipur,  successive  Indian governments  have  resorted  to  strong  measures  to  maintain  order, including declaring the  entire state a ‘Disturbed Area,’  and authorizing the  implementation  of  the  Armed  Forces  Special  Powers  Act  (AFSPA).  The  AFSPA is  designed to  grant special  powers  to the  Armed Forces  in counter insurgency  and  terrorist  operations  when  other  forces  fail  to control  the  situation.  The  law  allows  the  armed  forces  to  conduct proactive  operations  against  insurgents in  hostile  environments. While the  AFSPA  is  applicable  only  in  the  Disturbed  Areas,  the  authority  to declare an area as such rests with the central and state governments.  Recent actions by the Manipur government have heightened tensions and exacerbated the  Kuki  community’s  sense of  discrimination  and  insecurity,  such  as the temporary suspension of the Free Movement Regime (FMR) that had been activated by India and Myanmar in January 2018 to allow movement of  villagers living  along  their 1,643  km-long  border.  The suspension was  extended in  November 2022  because  it was  believed  that the  FMR may  lead to  further increase  in  the illegal  entry of  Myanmar  nationals into India  in view  of the political  turmoil in Myanmar.  The FMR allows tribes living along the border to travel 16 km across either side of the border without visa restrictions.  There are over 250 villages with more than 300,000 people living within 10 km. of the border who frequently cross the border through 150 small and large formal and informal border crossings.  Moreover, the Kukis feel discriminated against due to the decision of the Government to suspend this free passage eviction drives.  The  Kukis  perceive  these  actions  as  targeting  their community, particularly the  Chin-Kuki tribe,  although the government claims  that  the  measures had  affected  various  communities, including the  Meiteis.

How insurgency affected Manipur in the past

However, the story of Manipur insurgency and AFSPA would be incomplete without mention of the role of Irom Chanu Sharmila.  The Government at the center (i.e. Government of India) during the past were not very much concerned with the affairs of the States of north east India, as a result, wherever there was any armed insurgency related issues, the response was always a knee-jerk reaction, by responding with the magnitude of armed response that was commensurate with the gravity of the situation i.e. deployment of CRPF or Assam Rifles or Armed forces and promulgation of AFSPA etc., as the case maybe.  A simple search in respect of such incidents in all the north eastern states be it Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura or Nagaland, will reflect unnecessary use of force by the central government on many occasions. 

Irom Chanu Sharmila - a lone crusader in Manipur

   Due to long standing insurgency, the AFSPA was in force in Manipur since.  There were two major armed insurgent groups of Kuki militants operating both from within and outside India in Manipur and the main militant groups were the NSCN-IM (that entered a ceasefire agreement with India in 1997), Kuki National Organization (KNO) and the United People’s Front (UPF) that had entered into an agreement for ‘Suspension of Operation’ (SoO) with the GoI way back on 22nd August, 2008.  The oldest armed insurgent group of Manipur was the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) that has been operating in the State since 1964 and the other major militant groups affiliated with the Meitei’s and were largely Meitei backed were the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) and Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), but they had stayed clear of any negotiation with GoI till they signed a deal in November, 2023.  However, despite the various agreements between the militant groups and Government of India (GoI), AFSPA continued in Manipur and several incidents of uncalled for Civil Rights violation had been documented and demonstrations and protests lodged by people of Manipur against such atrocities from time to time.  Amongst them the role of Irom Chanu Sharmila, who launched a non-violent agitation against imposition of AFSPA is a chapter from Manipur history that cannot be overlooked.  On November 5, 2000, a frail young woman from Manipur quietly sat on a hunger strike at Malom, near the site where three days earlier 10 civilians were shot dead while waiting at a bus stand by Indian paramilitary forces. Irom Chanu Sharmila had resolved to fast until the draconian Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, (AFSPA), was repealed by the Central government.

            In that dignified, peaceful protest that lasted 16 years — considered the world’s longest hunger strike – a most unlikely icon of 21st century India was born. Not only did Irom Sharmila become a symbol of non-violent resistance against the brute force of the establishment and armed forces, she also assumed the stature of an incorruptible, uncompromising martyr for the people of not just Manipur, but all the States where AFSPA was imposed. From a normal, life-loving, gentle young woman, Irom Sharmila became the “Iron Lady of Manipur”; she was also “Mengoubi”, or the “Fair One”.  Despite her political foray turning out to be a disastrous one, yet her contribution for Manipur is singular and praise worthy.

Conclusion - What is my take on the Manipur scenario

Houses were set ablaze in Torbung area of Churachandpur in Manipur on May 4,  2023

            It is evident from the above narration that the militancy has been part and parcel of Manipur’s past.  Now the question is what has prompted this sudden flare-up in the State.  Whereas, there are several theories afloat namely –

a)      It is an ethnic cleansing activity and Hindu Meitei’s are trying to marginalize the Christian Kuki’s;

b)     Is it a conflict related to the grant of ST status to the Meitei?

c)      It is a conflict being fueled by foreign elements; and

d)     Is it a fight against foreign influx and drugs related issue?

There are a plethora of articles touting several such theories is floating the internet and some of it is definitely lopsided presentation.   Anti-India and Misinformation propaganda spreaders accounts from different countries mainly from Pakistan and Gulf are setting up their fake narrative against India as usual by giving it a religious clash angle amongst the Hindu Meitei and Kuki predominantly protestant Christians.

           At present the Government of India has exercised its powers under provisions of Article 371C that came into existence by the 27th amendment of the Constitution of India in 1971. This article deals with the Special Provision with Respect to the State of Manipur. This article authorizes the President to provide for the creation of a committee of Manipur Legislative Assembly consisting of members elected from hill areas of the state. The central government can give directions to the state government as to the administration of Hill Areas.  Accordingly, central forces including Assam Rifles have been deployed to maintain peace and order in the State, which is now being opposed by the Meitei groups stating that the policing by them have remained ineffective so far as it has failed to stop the violence and act as mere spectators.  However, there are counter claims that the local police would be playing a more partisan role i.e. Meitei’s police personnel helping their side and Kuki’s police personnel their side.  Whereas, the militant side of Kuki people is historically manifest, but the present allegations that are being levelled by the Meitei are that Kukis are inducting fresh armed insurgents from Myanmar using the 16 Km. corridor for establishing their superiority in hill tracts and to continue with the lucrative drugs trade across the Myanmar border.  The Kuki’s feel that by allowing Meitei’s to settle in the hills, it would lead to degradation of culture, trade and seize advantage in their land.  Whereas, the Meitei’s alleged that the Kuki’s are inducting foreign groups, who are fueling and provoking he conflict.  On the other hand the Kuki people allege that a shadow militant group known as the ‘Arambai Tenggol’, which in Meitei language translates to “Warrior’s Blood” and was named after a weapon used by Manipuri kings (Arambai) is spearheading this movement, but there is no definitive proof of such an organization in Manipur officially existing as on date.  Another group that Kuki’s point out is the ‘Meitei Leepun’ was established in 2015. ‘Meitei Leepun’ currently has 14,000 members, who include senior citizens, women and children, professionals, businessmen, writers, and activists. There are 1,000 trained cadres among the 14,000 in total and that this group although touts for peace is actually inclined to unsettle the Kuki establishment and overrun their land.

             In my opinion, this cauldron of Manipur State was already simmering with mutual mistrust and ambition of Kuki’s to have a separate administrative control of their region despite being much lower in numbers as per population census i.e. 53% are Meitei and about 30% are Kuki, juxtaposed to it Meitei are boxed in 10% geographical area of Manipur and the Kuki have a hold on remaining 90%.  It is evident that the British, as per their policy of ‘divide and rule’ had made this administrative exercise willfully, but the successive Governments in India, failed to assert their administrative skills and address this issue.  Whereas, most of the people of North-eastern States have been designated as Scheduled Tribe’, but despite fulfilling all the criteria for being acknowledged as a Scheduled Tribe, the Meitei have been left out from the list.  Thus, the Meitei have a legitimate grudge and despite being persons having their origin in Manipur (as per details provided above), they have been denied permission to buy land in the hill tracts, as they are reserved for the Scheduled Tribe i.e. Kuki, Naga etc.  With the population implosion taking place in India, Manipur too has faced it, but Meitei population having being boxed within confines of Imphal valley, land has become a priced commodity and they cannot buy land elsewhere despite being there in their own ancestral land and despite having a bigger population enjoy only 10% of the geographical land area.  It is evident that the Kuki people of Manipur want to continue with their hold on the hill tracts and growing opium is a source of easy income for these largely poor tribal people, hence with the High Court order in 2023 seeking response of GoI regarding granting to Scheduled Tribe status, sparked off the long simmering under current that suddenly burst out like a volcano, in form of tribal conflict amongst the Kuki’s and Meitei’s on 3rd May, 2023. 

            Although, now this conflict has assumed a larger proportion, with foreign countries like China adding fuel to the fire through the Myanmar Junta by supplying arms and ammunition.  Role of elements like the Pakistan ISI also cannot be ruled out, especially in view of the recent Bangladesh incident, as also the involvement of American deep state, including likes of Mr. George Soros cannot be ruled out as in September, 2023 a Christian organization during 54th session of the UN Human Rights Council held a panel discussion and berated India for Human Rights violation and terming the conflict as ethnic cleansing of Christians.  The interference of foreign elements is thus fudging the original reason of conflict, which in my opinion stems from the fact that it is basically a fight for land that has become a scarce commodity for the Meitei population because of faulty practices of the Government of India in the decades upto 2020s and this simmering conflict of interest between the Meitei population and Kuki population has come to a point eruption between the two communities, each one trying to protect its own interest and land holdings and there is no religious basis in this fight as is being touted.

© S. Roy Biswas

*Most of the photographs have been sourced from the internet to provide a representative image of the incidents/narrations;

**Articles have been sourced for study and to research for the article and detailed in the Bibliography below; and

***This is my independent opinion and not articulated to favor or disfavor any organization or person or persons or association of persons

 Bibliography –

1.      Manipur: Kuki History Struggles To Break Out Of Colonial Tropes And Majoritarianism - https://www.outlookindia.com/national/manipur-kuki-history-struggles-to-break-out-of-colonial-tropes-and-majoritarianism-news-313949

2.      History of Manipur - https://manipuri.org/index.php/history

3.      When did Kukis reach Manipur and how the past is shaping the state's present - https://www.indiatoday.in/history-of-it/story/manipur-violence-when-did-kukis-reach-manipur-and-how-past-is-shaping-states-present-2416215-2023-08-04

4.      2000: Irom Sharmila begins fast for repeal of AFSPA - https://frontline.thehindu.com/the-nation/india-at-75-epochal-moments-2000-irom-sharmila-begins-fast-for-repeal-of-afspa/article65720016.ece

5.      IROM CHANU SHARMILA-AN ICON OF NON-VIOLENT RESISTANCE - https://ebooks.inflibnet.ac.in/wsp15/chapter/irom-chanu-sharmila-an-icon-of-non-violent-resistance/

6.      Manipur’s oldest valley-based insurgent group, banned by MHA, signs peace deal with govt, gives up arms - https://theprint.in/india/manipurs-oldest-valley-based-insurgent-group-banned-by-mha-signs-peace-deal-with-govt-gives-up-arms/1864292/

7.      Opinion: Why Manipur Has Hit Rock Bottom Of Distrust - https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/why-manipur-has-hit-rock-bottom-of-distrust-4129776

8.      Origin of Meitei people - https://northeastindiawiki.wordpress.com/2020/07/04/origin-of-meitei-people/

9.      The Manipur Conflict: Internal Discontent, Policy Gaps, and Regional Implications - https://thediplomat.com/2024/07/the-manipur-conflict-internal-discontent-policy-gaps-and-regional-implications/

10.  What is really behind the violence in Manipur? - https://frontline.thehindu.com/news/what-is-really-behind-the-violence-in-manipur/article66820969.ece  

11.  Huge Row Over World Evangelical Alliance's Geneva Event On Manipur Violence - https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/huge-row-over-world-evangelical-alliances-geneva-event-on-manipur-violence-4408505