Three years of Ukraine war – a general analysis of the scenario
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| Current view of areas under Russian occupation |
On completion of two years of war with Russia, I had published a blog wherein I had made a detailed analysis of the past historical background and present day i.e. what was existing in February, 2024 scenario of Ukraine and to read the blog you may check it out at - https://shantanuroybiswas.blogspot.com/2024/02/two-years-of-ukraine-war-general.html . In the concluding paragraphs of the said blog I had observed as follows – “The evaluation/assessment of capabilities of Zelensky as President by the Western media can be gauged from the headline of the BBC post that read as – ‘Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky: The comedian president who is rising to the moment’ - link is as follows - (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59667938). Evidently, Zelensky has been led into a trap by the West, rather than Putin falling into one, as is being portrayed by many Western media analysts. It was a Hobson’s choice for Putin, as Russia needs to keep its borders neutral as far as possible, so as not to bleed militarily in future with Western (read NATO) forces breathing down its neck and in stark contrast Zelensky because of his lack of political acumen and poor academic background, has pushed Ukraine back to the pre- industrialization days in physical sense”. Evidently, rather than being a trap for him, it now appears that Zelensky has been minting money at cost of this war and is the pivotal reason for extending this conflict and the present analysis points towards this.
The war between Ukraine and Russia erupted on 24th February, 2022 and after initial Russian breakthrough that was followed by a counter offensive by Ukraine in August, 2022 whereby they had been able to take a chunk of their land back from Russian occupation, it had almost reached a stalemate over the past two years. Both the concerned were making claims and counter-claims of inflicting heavy damage to the other. This stalemate continued and it is evident that the American ‘deep state’, which now stands exposed, of having tried to influence and interfere in affairs of foreign countries, including India, was a chief propagator with sole intent of destabilizing Russia and its leadership. With the change of political leadership in United States of America (hereinafter being referred to as America) in January, 2025 their new President H.E Mr. Donald Trump, the things were apparently moving in the right direction. Mr.Trump had seen through the game of President of Ukraine i.e. Vladomir Zelensky and also the manner in which American tax payer’s money was being used to fund the Ukraine-Russia war, for benefitting some of the ex-Presidents allies & business partners. Mr. Trump had called the bluff and asked the Ukraine President to end the war and also to pay for the American war merchandise by signing a pact in respect of mineral wealth of Ukraine. However, Mr.Zelensky tried to play to the gallery, being a veteran actor, in the White House, assuming that it would put Mr.Trump in an awkward situation and he would be forced to tag the old line, but his ploy misfired and the spat became nasty that led to President Trump calling Zelensky a ‘dictator’ – here is the link to the said news - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/19/dictator-trump-feuds-with-zelenskyy-amid-negotiations-over-ukraine-war . Thereafter, America had called off all the American war aid to Ukraine and also stopped providing them with the military intelligence as well, but the later has now been restored.
After this action on part of America, I had been optimist that this ugly war would now conclude albeit after a short duration. However, it appears that now the European Union alongwith Britain is trying to continue this war and that actor Zelensky is trying to portray that Russia will attack all NATO allies. This stand is practically impossible in a war scenario, as to either attack the whole of Europe or to occupy and continue with such occupation, both appear to be a farfetched option or theory. I have explained in my previous blog, the reason for Russia to take this offensive stand, but the intent of the European Union and Britain appears to plunge Ukraine into further chaos. It is evident that President Trump has been actually trying to usher in a peace agreement and in this regard he had identified Saudi Arabia as a neutral venue to negotiate the said peace agreement. It would be pertinent to mention here that President Zelensky had visited Saudi Arabia on 10th March, 2025 in this connection - https://www.reuters.com/world/zelenskiy-heads-saudi-arabia-ahead-crunch-us-talks-2025-03-10/ . Whereas, on one hand Zelensky was in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a peace deal with Russia, on the other hand while in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine forces launched a major offensive against Russia - https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/11/europe/ukraine-moscow-drone-attack-intl-hnk/index.html - hitting targets as far as Moscow. This reflects his double standards, as wherein on one hand Ukraine President was engaging in peace talks in Saudi Arabia and on the other hand it was provoking Russia, shows the actual intent of the double faced Zelensky, who was seeking a reprisal from Russia, so that he could cry foul before the International media, which had been his game plan all through the war.
After protracted negotiations, President Trump had made a small step forward in restoring peace between Ukaraine and Russia by brokering a 30 day peace deal, with condition to stop attacks in the Black Sea region [to have safe passage of civilian ships etc.] and not to attack each other’s energy related installations - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/18/russias-putin-agrees-to-30-day-halt-in-attacks-on-ukraine-energy-targets and https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/25/russia-and-ukraine-agree-to-halt-black-sea-strikes-us . However, this ceasefire in respect of energy installations was very short lived as both the parties, within days of the brokered peace deal, have accused each other of violating the accord - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-energy-facilities-targeted-by-ukraines-drones-2025-03-19/ and subsequently also such allegations have surfaced - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/26/ukraine-russia-trade-accusations-of-violating-us-brokered-truce . It is evident that neither side is willing to yield, but Russia is in a position to continue with the war and it has now started hammering Ukraine properly and with use of brute force - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/4/russia-stalls-ceasefire-talks-as-it-intensifies-attacks-on-ukraine and will continue to do so. The so called European Union and Britain and the NATO without America, is no position to provide much solace of Ukraine in the war mongering game, as it has neither the military industrial set-up nor the infrastructure to prolong the war against Russia, as per their doctrine of forcing and subjugating Russia to come to the negotiation table. A brief stand taken by the European Union and Britain has summed up in this news article by the Associated Press - https://apnews.com/article/eu-defense-funds-weapons-ukraine-ammunition-russia-d472d36e583f1bd7ebf54e5826b9e752 .
Looking at the ongoing Russian military onslaught, coupled with lack of military hardware availability of the EU and Britain taken all together, it has only an edge in the air power only albeit Russia’s missile program boasting of a plethora of hyper-sonic missiles. Therefore, it is in best political interest of Ukraine to broker a peace deal, if there is no Ukraine remaining, where will Zelensky rule? is a common sense interpretation, but evidently as per accusations against him of siphoning off the aid money, it appear to be a palpable fact that is leading Zelensky to continue with the war or else if Zelensky was actually fighting for the interest of Ukraine, he should seek an early peace deal to rebuild his country and simultaneously seek a symbolic United Nations peace force as buffer between the two countries, with the Russian speaking regions conquered by Russia being governed as autonomous regions under UN aegis or else the entire Ukraine could be lost to Russia forever, as Russia has the entire Ukraine under its shadow with armaments being stationed in Belarus also.
©
S Roy Biswas
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