The China angle in fomenting discontent in the country & the role of Indian media

 

The China angle in fomenting discontent in the country
&
the role of Indian media

Hasty retreat by Chinese armed forces from Pangong Tso area

            We all have read and heard about the various International intelligence agencies like CIA, MI5, KGB, MOSSAD etc. and even for that matter ISI of Pakistan.  However, very few of us have any knowledge about the Chinese intelligence agency, as it usually keeps a very low profile and is known as MSS (Ministry of State Security).  If one does an analysis of the recent events in world Geo-politics, one can join dots significantly and these pointers directs one towards China and the functioning of its MSS.  China had actually threatened India with various covert operations, including fanning of insurgency in North east region of the country, through its media mouth piece i.e. The Global Times.  Many ordinary citizens may not be taking these threats seriously, but the activities of MSS across the world needs to be assessed afresh. 

             Although the MSS is not known to be an agency with known strike capabilities on enemies like the KGB & MOSSAD, but it now appears that it has gained immense expertise for covertly operating with intent to destabilize entire geographical regions by use of its money power through third party entities, so as to ensure that China is not exposed or directly blamed for the same.  This was amply on display recently, during the recently concluded US Presidential elections, wherein the rhetoric of ‘white supremacy’ and violence thereon was perpetrated and was used as a tool to ensure distinct disadvantage for Mr.Donald Trump, a known China baiter.  The persons and media involved in generating and perpetrating this specific agenda in the USA, are known to have received monetary support from unknown sources.  The stand taken by India, especially the present Government,  in respect of ‘Belt & Road initiative’ (BRI for short) of China has not gone down too well with the Chinese establishment, especially its President Xi Jinping, as the most ambitious component/project of the BRI namely CPEC runs through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and could be in jeopardy in near future, especially in case India did not become part of this capitalist and expansionist policy of China, in case India happens to re-occupy its land i.e. POK, the entire amount of more than 50 billion dollars spent by China to develop this corridor  could turn out to be a naught.  In case any reader wants to learn about the BRI and its impact globally, may read this article - https://www.tni.org/files/publication-downloads/bri_framing_web_en.pdf.

A representative image of CPEC scheme in Pakistan 

          In order to destabilize the present Government, the Chinese agencies sought covert help from ISI of Pakistan to infiltrate the ranks of certain Muslim organizations and instigated the CAA protests, but due to exposure of likes of Sarjil Imam and Umar Khalid of indulging in anti-national activities, coupled with exposure of likes of Tahir Hussain, whose active role with covert help of a political party stood exposed, during the Delhi riots perpetrated on eve of visit of the then United States President to India in February, 2020 are all indicative of the role of China in trying to destabilize the current Government through agencies like ISI.  The return to power of the present Government in 2019 had unnerved China further and it stepped up the ante to find ways and means to destabilize and ultimately defame this Government and ensure its electoral loss in next the elections.  This was not a game plan that had been hatched overnight, but had been on the anvil since years and this can be seen by the increased Chinese activity in Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to foment trouble for India from all sides.  Further, the world wide destruction unleased by China in guise of COVID-19 for ensuring economic dominance over the world, was coupled with the infamous ‘Tabligi Jamat’ incident in March - April, 2020, wherein mullahs from countries wherein China has a marked presence, came to India and despite being infected intentionally, they dispersed all over country, mostly to remote locations, with intent to spread the virus and cripple the fragile Indian health care system and thereby create a strong anti-Government narrative.  However, having failed to get the desired results through these initiatives, the Chinese Government as a last ditch attempt to de-stabilize, de-motivate and disintegrate the present Government, upped the ante by challenging India militarily by marching upto the Finger-4 region on Pangong Tso region in Ladakh.  The attempt was to militarily humiliate the present Government and thus, discredit it, but the tables were turned with the Galwan incident, wherein a pre-mediated attack by the Chinese troops became it’s Waterloo, as more than double the number of its soldiers perished in hand to hand combat with Indian jawans.  This unprecedented turn of events actually started to hurt the Chinese leadership back home and as much as the media may hype, coupled with this military setback and the position taken by the Indian armed forces alongside, it was the internal domestic pressure, especially upon the central leadership within China that resulted in the present withdrawal.

             As a last ditch effort, the Chinese establishment tried to create turmoil in India through this false narrative of so called ‘Kisan aandolan’ and later tried to give it an International color using paid up projected personalities like Rihanna and Greta Thunberg.  But the tweet of Greta Thunberg, a self-projected and propagated cult personality, with lone intent to black-mail and to gain monetarily, this cult persona made a hasty tweet that included the copy of the hidden agenda of the paid campaign and this exposed the entire set-up and discredited the movement internationally.  Coupled with this, the on ground activity of the so called leaders of the ‘Kisan aandolan’, who had been paid to discredit the Government internationally by disturbing the Republic day celebrations, especially by indulging in large scale violence and expecting Government retribution failed miserably and the leaders were on run in the aftermath.  The public instead of being swayed by the activities of these so called activists, in an anti-Government charade, actually turned against them after being exposed to the real agenda behind the agitation and the sponsored program is slowly petering out.  The intent of this specific movement was also to disrupt the lifeline of armed forces that runs through States of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, in case a limited war broke out at the border and to choke the supply chain of the Indian forces using its own citizens (actually anti-nationals), who would disrupt the Railway lines, roads etc.  One of the glaring incidents, that points fingers towards Chinese involvement is the uncalled for destruction of Reliance network towers in Punjab, as a warning for working of 5G technology and challenging China globally, one has to read between the lines and incidents to join the dots in such vicious intents ( Here is the link to the news - https://www.indiannewslive.com/why-do-farmers-explode-on-mobile-towers-in-the-middle-of-the-movement-loss-over-1500-cm-amarinder-instructs-to-take-action.html ).  

Sikh activists damaging Reliance towers in Punjab

The other incident of hoisting flat at Red Fort was an act of defiance and a direct challenge to authorities provoking them for taking harsh punitive action, as the Chinese believed would take place, but the mature handling of situation by the Delhi Police and the political brass, exposed China and divisive forces effectively.  Thus, having failed to garner an internal turmoil within the country and also having failed to turn Nepal totally against India and coupled with India’s ‘Vaccine diplomacy’ alongwith military and other support being offered to immediate neighbors and India having won over Bangladesh and Myanmar had rattled the Chinese establishment badly.  As a last ditch effort to ensnare India, it has perpetrated a military coup in Myanmar to continue with its game of geo-political destabilization of the South East Asian region. 

         However, finding no way out even after having indulged in all these games to destabilize the country and win the war without firing a shot, having dithering for eight rounds of military talks, China finally accepted the inevitable after the ninth round and withdrew at such a pace that left the International community stupefied, but it is evident that this had been planned in detail since long and the orders stood served to the last soldier in the line and man were the Chinese military happy to get out of the hell they had been pushed into by their own Government, where they lived in constant fear of being dismembered by the Indian military at any instant, especially after the Galwan incident.  China had no choice either, as an honorable exit was the only way out, as a military defeat would have thoroughly exposed the inadequacies in the Chinese military establishment worldwide and its ramifications would have been immense.

             Now many of you may be pondering that the entire narration till now centers around the Chinese activities of destabilizing India, but what has the Indian media got to do with it.   The answer to it is quite complex, as well as very simple and I will try to explain the link.  As I have narrated that the Chinese MSS has grown its expertise in garnering and festering discontent and ways to destabilize countries or geo-political regions.  It mainly targets, what is both the strongest and weakest points of a vibrant democracy i.e. right to protest.  It uses this as a tool by pumping in money and garnering violent protests through third party mechanisms or intelligence agencies, such as ISI, which will carry out any such activity for sake of money.  However, what these countries that overtly rely on China, fail to realize is that the China is not a welfare state and that all its investments are directed at gaining and establishing economic dependence upon China that would ultimately lead to grant of suzerainty to China.  This is the new form of colonialism that China perceives and is actively perpetrating in poorer nations in Asia and Africa and for that matter even South America.  In this process, in order to impose a thought process upon the citizens of that country, the Chinese establishment uses the media of that country by paying them to raise a specific bogey, so as to en-cash upon it later to dictate its terms.  What ails certain Indian media houses in India as well, is that it is playing pally to this Chinese propaganda machinery for some ill gotten money, but once in its trap, these media houses are later blackmailed to remain silent or loose their entire credibility by getting by exposed by these Chinese agents. 

             If you just analyze the events that unfolded since 2019 onwards and join the dots, you will find that the role of certain media houses, independently as well as in consonance with certain political parties, have been suspect and a chronological sequence would look like this –

1)    Some media houses were hell bent upon establishing that the CAA was actually a tool to harass and deny citizenship to a certain religious section in India.  Whereas, the fact was that it was a bill to provide citizenship and not take it away;

The mockery of CAA -  protests in India

2)    This was followed up with an orchestrated communal riot in Delhi on the eve of visit of the then US President to India and the media tried to play the victim cards in favor of certain community and also fuel it.  But the exposure of the deeds through the Mobile warriors i.e. ordinary citizens recording the events through their mobile cameras, exposed the false narrative of certain media houses;

The Delhi riots view and one of the chief perpetrators and organizer Tahir Hussain

3)      Then came the incident of ‘Tabligi jamat’ and you would have noticed some media houses were bending backwards over to project religious persecution, when these foreign and Indian elements were being rounded up.  Also remember the kind of pan India anti-Government stance was being taken by certain religious sect by attacking health workers etc. during this period that pointed towards an well-orchestrated sinister plan;

The 'Tabligi jamaat' and their leader

4)  Thereafter, when China took an attacking stance and marched upto Finger-4 of Pangong Tso in Ladakh, the same media houses started crying hoarse that China had taken over Indian Territory and this rhetoric was in tandem with certain political parties, whose NGOs had been receiving money from the China as well as its entities;

A garb of the Galwan incident during skirmish with China

5)   Then came the lockdown because of COVID-19 and the rhetoric and blatant criticism of the Government for having miserably failed to contain the spread of virus and ruining of economy, by this very plethora of Indian media houses in tandem with other political parties.  But the efforts made by the Government is now there for all to see and despite being much poorer nation viz a viz the Western European counterparts including USA and Canada, India has contained the spread effectively and also provided a vaccine to the world on its own;

6)   Thereafter, came this propagated agenda of protests against the so called ‘Farm Bills’ and here again the same party that was earlier trying to implement it, was up in arms against the same alongwith their coterie of media houses, which in fact is an unfortunate aspect of democracy.  The false narrative of certain media houses alongwith political parties etc. of unfortunate over-turning of a Tractor and the driver getting killed, being projected as having been shot by the Police, in order to perpetrate violence on the streets aka USA, came out a naught for the Chinese machinery, as the entire incident had been recorded independently by various media and also by my so called ‘Mobile warriors’, who were the actual heroes in exposing the falsity of CAA, Tabliggi Jammat and roles of likes of Tahir Hussain during Delhi riots;

Some anti-social and anti-national elements attack Red Fort in garb of Kisan aandolan or Farmers protest

7)      Another aspect of the media soft pedaling certain issues, especially through Radio Channels have also come to my notice.  The Radio Jockeys (RJs for short) while hosting programs other than news programs, subtly raise issues like rise in petrol prices, socially sensitive issues etc. and peddle them to drum up a fresh agitation, either for monetary gains (for the houses managing and hosting these Radio channels) or for political purposes (being sponsored by Political parties through advertisement etc.).  Some of the RJs blatantly mimic certain functionaries of the Government including the Prime Minister, in guise of humor, to discredit them; and

8)      Finally the last, but not the least is the fomenting of plethora of online news portals (whose source of funding is suspect), which by hoodwinking the regular censorship model publish blatantly false articles with sole intent to create disharmony and distrust etc. in the nation.

 In this context, the Chinese attempt to use some celebrities, of course through back channels is evident.  In this context, the name of an female celebrity Rihanna, who put in a tweet supporting the so called farmers agitation raised a protest from the citizens, albeit a few media houses, including a few Radio jockeys, whose management allow these elements (for sake of revenue of course) to raise irrelevant issues in unconnected programs like Hindi songs hosting or to unnecessarily mimic the tone and tenor of our Prime Minister for passing disparaging remarks against him in guise of humor, all at cost of free speech in democracy.  All these unscrupulous elements started drumming the bogey and raising a hue a cry either about the Government being too harsh and reactive towards such tweets or questioning other Indian celebrities for retorting to the tweets of Rihanna.  However, it is imperative to place here on record that Rihanna has had a long association with China and this article of 2019 in a Chinese media will establish my contentions –

https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/china/rihannas-latest-cover-spurred-cries-of-cultural-appropriation-but-chinese-netizens-disagree-fenty

Further, when the source of fund regarding the tweet surfaced, the pro-Khalisatani body based in Canada and accused of paying millions of dollars for the tweet came out denying that it had paid Rinanna for the said tweet, shows their guilt – here is the link to this article - https://www.news18.com/news/india/canada-based-pjf-denies-paying-2-5-million-to-rihanna-for-her-tweet-supporting-farmers-protest-3399422.html

Rihanna

The final nail to this sordid saga was hammered by one of the perpetrators and player of this game, when the over smart Greta Thunberg of Sweden, being propagated as an environmentalist, issued a similar tweet regarding farmers agitation, but inadvertently also shared the link known as ‘toolkit’ that exposed the entire game plan including that of Rihanna and the deletion of the tweet later established the sinister plan and here  is the link to the news - https://in.news.yahoo.com/greta-thunbergs-deleted-toolkit-plot-to-defame-india-100953564.html

Greta Thunberg

These back to back incidents and exposure compelled the right thinking citizens of the country about this international conspiracy being hatched by enemy nations resulted in the so called farmer’s agitation losing steam and now slowly petering out.

 

Indian forces in Ladakh - all geared up to take on China

            Now let us come to the latest instance, wherein China after due deliberations agreed to pull back its troops in Pangong Tso region back to its original position of beyond Finger-8, to an existing pre-April, 2020 position.  It is in effect implementation of bilateral agreement of ‘status quo ante’, which means in common parlance that things be restored as it existed on a particular date in the past.  Accordingly, the Indian troops too went back to their permanent base near Finger-3 region, as existing prior to April, 2020.  The Indian Government has been steadfast in its demand from day one that China should first move back to its pre-April, 2020 position and has achieved the same.  Similarly, India too had to withdraw all its troops that had been stationed post April, 2020 because of the conflict in the said region.  However, China in order to have a face saving option has again used this coterie of paid Indian media and politicians to question the withdrawal of troops from the Kailash ranges i.e. Rezang la etc. and started misleading the public, in name of democratic freedom, questioning the withdrawal and ceding of territory by India.  This is far from the factual position, as ‘status quo ante’ even in International law applies equivocally to either parties and in order to get into an bilateral agreement, the same status has to be restored by either parties and accordingly, it was incumbent upon India to do so.  Therefore, the Indian media houses that are somehow influenced by outside agencies/counties tend to propagate narrative that is against national interest and all this is done in the name of democracy.  Juxtaposed to it, autocratic nations tend to misuse this power to propagate false narratives to harm a nation or its government and its credibility etc. through the use of such unscrupulous media houses.  However, this kind of game doesn’t have a long lasting love story, as these rogue autocratic nations, just throw away these entities into the dustbin after their game is over, as has happened recently with BBC, that was involved in anti-India propaganda on behest of this country, which now stands banned in China itself.

          I believe that it is incumbent upon the media to report facts as they exist and not as what it should be perceived as per their opinion and this thin line should not be crossed at any cost, as this tantamount to ‘yellow journalism’.  In case it is still done by any media house, an appropriate regulatory authority should ban that media house for a specific period of time.  This kind of watch dog is essential so that rogue States like China are not able to use this democratic right to foster their evil intentions.  I strongly feel that it is time that some self-imposed regulatory authority is strongly recommended for monitoring the media houses.  Expect my readers to comment regarding their take on my stand in this article.

 (All the photographs used in the blog have been sourced from the internet and for representative purpose only)

© S. Roy Biswas

 

           

HOW CHINA STANDS IN LADAKH – A STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

 

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HOW CHINA STANDS IN LADAKH – A STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Details of occupation of heights by Indian forces till date

            In my previous blog, I had made a detailed presentation of the reasons why China has been behaving in the manner it is doing so now, this is because of its deep rooted expansionist policy, coupled with the over-whelming desire of their present President Xi Jinping to become the greatest leader of China and attain a stature bigger than that of Mao Tse Tung.  Apparently the initial misadventure in Ladakh was aimed at diverting the attention of the world and especially the citizens of China from the various vagaries that China had to face both at International level as well as internally because of the Wuhan/Corona virus.  The closed country like China wherefrom any significant information is difficult to come by, the recent announcement of ‘Clean Plate’ initiative launched by their President is indicative of the food grain security issues inside China, as coupled with the financial setback and large scale flooding in the country, especially along the Yangste River basin,  has created a looming food grain crisis that may implode into a full blown political crisis in China and this is likely to impact the position of Xi Jinping during the plenary session of the China Communist Party (CCP for short) scheduled to held in October, 2020.  In this conclave the President is in process of presenting a future plan upto 2035, which is in contrast with the present practice of putting up future plans upto next 05 (Five) years only.  Therefore, the emphasis is to present President Xi Jinping, is to assumed complete command as the ultimate leader for China and in pursuance of this he is trying to divert attention from internal turmoil and raising the external threat issues.

Schematic presentation of Line of Actual Control (LAC) perception over the years

          Apart from the above mentioned position, China has had a long history of expansionism and has grown many folds by usurping territories of other neighboring countries (a copy of the map as given in my previous blog is again enclosed for ready reference) and thereafter imposing its regime using harsh and coercive means.  The example of Tibet stands out and the condition of its citizens is all but part of history now.  However, the recent actions by China in Hong Kong, which has been condemned all across the World, reflects its true intents and machinations.  It has also started imposition of Mandarin language and implementation of CCP dictates in parts of Mongolia usurped by it and the citizens there are up in arms against this policy, but are facing brutal repression at the hands of Chinese.  While referring to this kind of expansionist policy by China, an old anecdote of Indian origin comes to my mind and the crux of the story is that – ‘A Fox finds a lone lamb on a lonely stretch of River and comes up on it and states that since the lamb drank water from the part of the River that belongs to him, he would eat him up as punishment.  The lamb cries out stating that it was only eating grass on the River bank and did not drink water.  The Fox quickly pronounces that if it was not the lamb, than his father must have drunk water from his part of the river, so he was to pay up for his crime and hence the Fox was going to eat it up’.  Evidently, China follows this very principle of the Fox and usurps land stating that historically Chinese had ruled this part of the land.  If one goes by the same corollary, the most destructive and cruel ruler who had actually conquered land from Mongolia to Iran, was Kublai Khan, who was Mongol and by that corollary Mongolia should actually rule China, rather than being the other way round.  Similarly, I am placing a map of the region ruled by Ashoka the Great from 263 to 232 B.C and accordingly, India has unfettered rights all across the now disputed regions by China and also right upto Indonesia, as Indian rulers in the past had conquered those parts also and ruled there.  This is actually a very farfetched way of legitimizing illegal grabbing of land by China, but it does so with aplomb and till now, those areas being geographically and economically useless for the World at large, that was just trying to overcome the economic ravage post World War-II, China got away without much ado by the World community at large.

Map of India during Ashoka the Great

       Now leaving aside the light hearted banter against China and its policies, which it practices stringently along with the use of false narratives, usually used by small school children, of accusing the other of having raised his/her hands first during a first fight in the School,  the Chinese tend to do the same at their foreign policy level too.  China needs to grow out of its outdated thinking process, as all facts are now a days verifiable through various means easily.  At the time I had written the previous blog, the details of Galwan clash were only coming out in bits and pieces.  Now it is amply clear that the China had started the aggression in a planned manner and in pursuance thereof, had replaced the regular border guards with their so called elite forces.  Therefore, when Col. Suresh Babu had walked in believing that he would be speaking to the known face, he was surprised and it is evident now that he had been attacked from behind with intent to kill.  The Chinese had presumed that killing of the Commander would yield a morale downing blow upon the army personnel posted there and they would in turn abandon their posts, which the Chinese army would then occupy.  The Chinese militarily had three things in their favour – (a) An element of surprise; (b) Especially detailed regiment with tailor made assault weapons best suited for such combat situations; and (c) Numerical dominance in ratio of 1:3 (100 Indian soldiers as against 300 armed Chinese soldiers).  However, what transpired was totally beyond what the Chinese had comprehended, not only our forces physically removed them from the spot but also inflicted such body blows that actually demoralized the entire Chinese regiment to the extent that they had to be replaced and required psychological counseling.  Although India lost about 20 of its gallant soldiers, but the Chinese have definitely lost a substantial numbers and some claim that 106 had died (a photograph of the graveyard earmarked for such deceased Chinese personnel is circulating in the internet) , whereas a more definitive assessment is of 46 fatalities i.e. when they were at a more advantageous position.  It is also reported in hushed tones that the Indian soldiers had also captured the Commander of the said regiment during this skirmish.  Thus, it is evident that at home exercises are akin to playing video games and facing actual battle hardened forces on ground is a totally different ball game altogether.  However, China despite being aware of its short comings now, is finding it difficult to accept the position, as withdrawal at this stage could be counter-productive especially in view of the forthcoming plenary session for President Xi Jinping, as being the overall military commander, failure to achieve objective by the Chinese PLA could be attributable to him.  Therefore, having gained some ground by attacking from behind the back, by occupying area upto finger four in North Bank of Pangong Lake surreptitiously, a region that hitherto had been jointly and severally patrolled by both India and China.  However, China wanted to up the ante and force India to coming to the negotiation table at a lower stature and China wanted to bargain from a position of strength, as it would probably have sought to bargain for recognition of the CPC corridor by India in the POK area, as it is built on illegally occupied land by Pakistan and any unilateral decision by India to annex this disputed territory would have brought down this entire corridor of CPEC on to its knees.  This action would have caused unparalleled economic blow of about 45-50 billion dollars to China, as it could not have taken India to any International court also, having dealt illegally with Pakistan in using this disputed portion.  The bogey of India seeking to take Aksai Chin is being propagated by Chinese think tank, so as to somehow legalize its transgression into Indian territory, in total defiance of the agreements signed between the two nations, in contravention of all International laws in this regard.  The Chinese attempt to unilaterally change their borders with India has been in practice since 1959 onwards.  I am enclosing herewith a screen shot of a schematic representation of the facts on record regarding the Chinese transgression into Indian territories.  The red line across the Aksai Chin area was what Chinese perceived as LAC and occupied it in Nov., 1959.  Thereafter, during the Sino-Indian war in 1962 the Chinese had advanced upto the region marked by Blue line, but withdrew till the Red line in Sept., 1962 and has been adhering to the same till May, 2020.  However, the Chinese have again changed the perception of LAC unilaterally and now again trying to gain area upto the Blue line. 

A presentation of disputed area with China

            The reason that fueled this present blog was the recent commendable act of the Indian armed forces, when it thwarted another attempt by the Chinese armed forces to change the perception of LAC by occupying certain heights on the Southern bank of the Pangong Lake.  However, on the ensuing nights of 29 & 30, August, 2020 the Indian army out maneuvered the Chinese army and scaled the peaks of Thankung to Gurung Hill, Black top, Helmet top overlooking Spanggur Gap (where Chinese Garrison is stationed), Magar Hill, Mukhpari, Rezang La and Requin La.  The Chinese forces were beaten back and thus, India has established a dominating position across the South bank of Pangong Lake overlooking the finger four top area, thus the military dominance over heights at Pangong enjoyed by the Chinese hereto, have been neutralized and China lost the bargaining point that it had surreptitiously seized.  The Chinese have again tried to provoke the Indians entrenched in these positions, who has now deployed the Militia squad (akin to BAT of Pakistan) comprising of local goons and hooligans, for hand to hand combat in the region, by launching an frontal attack on 7^th Sept., 2020 but India has not allowed the Chinese to gain an inch, which has further flustered the Chinese leadership including President Xi Jinping.  The Chinese media started resorting to false propaganda, of Indian soldiers having fired in the air to caution Chinese aggressors, but the photographs circulated in the press by the Indian side has totally contradicted the Chinese stand and put them on back foot.  A copy of the photograph accessed from the net is placed for benefit of readers in this blog.

Grave of Chinese soldier killed in Galwan clash

          Having dealt with briefly the recent face to face confrontations between the armed forces of the two countries as explained hereinabove, it would be appropriate to discuss the military strength of either side.  China has assumed that having more number of armed force personnel and advanced equipment’s would give it an edge over India and accordingly, had ventured into a misadventure.  Chinese goods are only as reliable as long as they last, the latest incident of their J-10 fighter having crashed in Southern China shows its immense technological capabilities, without being sarcastic, if this incident is analyzed on merits, there are two scenarios, firstly that it was hit by a Tiwanese missile, which has been denied by both the countries and we should not dispute their stands, the next option would be that there was an engine or guidance control mechanism failure and in such a scenario too, the quality of the aircraft comes into question.  Thus, losing a so called State of Art aircraft at this point does not augur well for the Chinese Air force.  Flying routine sorties and flying into enemy formations or fire line are two different things and it is a fact on record that Chinese Airforce or armed forces have never ever have faced any such war in the past, so their experience is more of simulator based, rather than real war scenarios, as faced by Indian pilots and forces.  The prowess of Indian army has already been established both in Galwan and South banks of Pangong.  Any battle is never won by the machines it possesses, but by men who ride and command them.  China despite all its propaganda videos and sabre rattling is well aware of this fact and coupled with this, their army comprises mostly of four year conscripts (forced induction), most of whom are single child’s and thus, are more pampered and focused more towards further Education on completion of conscription, rather than to  fight for the PLA and hence not motivated enough and may run away from the field in case of any big adversity it faces, as against their Indian counterparts, who are professionals, well trained, motivated and serve on their own accord for the pride of their country. 

The expansionist policy of China explained on map 

         Now looking at the entire scenario in hindsight, I would like to refer to two studies conducted independently by International institutions namely – i) Center for a New American Security (CNAS) – study – ‘Imbalance of Power – India’s Military choices in an era of Strategic competition with China’ of October, 2019 – link - https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/imbalance-of-power; and ii) Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs of Harvard Kennedy School - ‘The Strategic Postures of China and India – A Visual Guide’ of March, 2020 – link - https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/strategic-postures-china-and-india-visual-guide.  Whereas, the first study relates to assessment of India aligning with United States so as to balance the power equation in the Asia Pacific region with the intent to contain China, especially in the region.  In this assessment, which probably has been done more at academic level, since the details of Indian deployments, infrastructure development in regions where ‘Inner line permits’ are required, are not easily accessible for foreigners, hence the assessment of India being inadequate in this sector and would be slow in deployment of troops etc. in the Himalayan region and China on the other hand having had built ample infrastructure would be at a highly advantageous position.  The report further criticizes India of going slow with its association with the Quad group i.e. United States, Australia, Japan and India to dominate the entire Indian Ocean region.  It has been concluded in the said study that China may take advantage of the situation and usurp Indian territory along the Himalayan borders in active association with Pakistan, also seize Indian Naval boats and other strategic assets etc. to be at a better bargaining position, so as to pin down India at the negotiating table, so that it gives up its key territories and negotiates as follows –

a)    India signs a humiliating joint statement by which Delhi apologizes for its provocations and formally recognizes the Chinese-designated Dalai Lama;

b)     Offer to agree to release the corvette and its crew in exchange for India recognizing Chinese sovereignty over the South China Sea and promising to ask for permission prior to “sailing through China’s blue national soil.”;

c)         Indian cession or demilitarization of key terrain such as Bum La Pass, Jhamperi Ridge, Lakshadweep Island and the Andaman and Nicobar islands.

The second study on the other hand is based on open source information and an assessment of the military capabilities of both the countries.  However, it is evident from this study that even though China may possess military personnel and hardware much larger in numerically, yet the deployment level is fairly even, as China has a much bigger border area to cover, especially having drawn enmity with most of its neighbors because of its expansionist policy.  Thus, in case of limited conflict, it would definitely be the man over the machine that is going to decide the issue.

Finger-4 area - satellite image of India-China positions as on 11th Sept., 2020

             The Chinese it appears were more bolstered by the first report discussed hereinabove and akin to Pakistan strategy crept across upto finger 4 region in the north banks of Pangong Lake in late April/early May 2020 with the sole intent to gain physical/military and strategically important position in the region, in total disregard of the practice in place since 1962, wherein troops of either side patrolled the regions between finger-4 to finger-8 areas, being a kind of buffer zone.  By surreptitiously taking up position at finger-4, the Chinese side unilaterally changed the status-quo and the Indian side through its various diplomatic as well as military channels has been trying to restore the status quo as it existed in April, 2020.  The Chinese side does not appear to have any intention of moving back, but on other hand has been amassing men and machine by each passing day, albeit trying to assure India through various meetings/statements etc. that it professed early disengagement in the region.  The incident that happened at Galwan on 15^th June, 2020 was the first military set-back suffered by China and its assumptions regarding prowess of its army i.e. PLA against the grit and professionalism of Indian Armed forces came to the fore.  The Chinese side all through since 5^th May, 2020 has been professing for peace and disengagement, but simultaneously bolstering their military presence in the region.  The Indian side has now clearly seen through the Chinese game plan and despite an uneasy calm, tensions were palpable on the borders.  On the ensuing night of August 29-30, 2020 in a major development, on getting confirmed information of the movement of forces on Chinese side, trying to change the status quo on the northern banks of Pangong Lake by occupying higher regions, the Indian side too reacted quickly and before the Chinese could advance further, the Indian side claimed many peaks as detailed earlier in the blog.  Whereas, it took the Chinese army 13-14 hours to trudge upto the ridge line, the Indian army bolstered by presence of Special Frontier Force (a specially trained brigade comprising mainly of Tibetan and higher mountainous region persons) had climbed these peaks in less than four hours, thus denying Chinese any further access. Furthermore, there was another skirmish between the troops on the 7^th of September, 2020 wherein a contingent of Chinese troops armed with spears, rod mounted machetes and automatic rifles tried to overrun the recently acquired peaks, but were thwarted by the Indian army, but first time in 45 years i.e. since 1975 fires were shot, albeit in air by the Chinese forces.  Instead of being deterred by these Chinese activities, the Indian troops on 9^th September, 2020 has further occupied position along finger 4 area at an altitude higher than that is occupied by the Chinese troops and hence by dominating the heights now (they are about 300 meters apart at this height), the Indian troops have turned the tables on the Chinese, but have done so very cleverly, by staying on their side of LAC.  The Chinese leadership is totally aghast at the action of the Indian troops, as their intentions of negotiating from position of strength has totally eroded and now both the armies are now equally poised. 

Chinese soldiers with crude weapons - 7th Sept., 2020

The intents of the Chinese are still suspect, as even after seeking an audience with the Indian Defense Minister by his Chinese counterpart during the SCO Summit on 4^th Sept., 2020, the official spokesperson of China went on to state that the responsibility of entire crisis rested with India, in their Chinese version, but was not reiterated in its English version.  This shows that the Chinese authorities are playing a double game with their own citizens, by taking a tough stand and blaming India for all their acts, but refraining from doing so at the International forum, because of the repercussions it is likely to face in the international media.  Thereafter, on the ensuing 10^th September, 2020 the Chinese Foreign Minister had a meeting with his Indian counterpart as part of the SCO summit and they have broadly agreed on a five points to reduce tension and for de-escalation as per a joint statement.  But it has now percolated out that the Indian side had strongly and categorically informed the Chinese side that the reason for such huge build up in Ladakh by it, for no plausible reason, had to be countered by India and it rested on the Chinese to de-escalate in such a scenario. 

             In my opinion, the Chinese cannot be trusted and their President Xi Jinping is the true fox that I had narrated in the anecdote in this blog.  Like his Pakistani counter-parts, he is bound to return back for foraging in this region again.  The Chinese side was totally taken aback at the speed at which India was able to deploy its forces in a mirror deployment, thus blunting the surprise element that China had perceived.  Further, China itself has now been exposed against a professional force and is still counting its numbers of dead soldiers.  Even though China may have been able to suppress the Galwan deaths from its civilian citizens, such information travels quickly amongst the military establishments and this has led to total demoralization of the PLA troops stationed in the region.  Further, it is now apparent that President Xi Jinping can gain nothing substantial to show for during the plenary session to be held in October, 2020 and in case of any future mis-adventure, akin to Aug., 29-30, 2020 incident that culminates on another failed mission for China, it may turn the tables in the internal politics and he may not get another chance to return to power.  Coupled with the above, with the winters setting in, which may be even earlier this year, the movement of troops and artillery back to their bases may become a huge challenge for China if it further delays its withdrawal and Indian forces with help of Tibetan freedom fighters may damage its war machinery beyond repair during the harsh winter season, as the Chinese would get restricted in their activities, whereas Indian troops and Tibetans are well acclimatized to venture into the region in deep snow and cold, as against their Chinese counterparts.  Therefore, the Chinese have got themselves entrapped into a situation, which had initially been envisaged by them as a win-win situation, but has now turned into a lose-lose situation.  They are now trying to find an honorable exit from the situation, so that they re-work their strategy and can come back for another round after the winters.  On the other hand it is advisable that India now being in a dominating position i.e. is in a position to enforce final demarcation of the boundary between the two countries should continue to consolidate all along from Ladakh, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal, as the Fox (China) may try to dig a hole in any of these sectors to gain leverage on the negotiating table.  For achieving this, India will have to work on a two pronged strategy – (i) To destabilize Tibet by encouraging the revolutionary elements and it would be in best interest of India, if Tibet can be liberated as an independent country; and (ii) simultaneously engage Pakistan and take away, what is legitimately ours i.e. Pakistan occupied Kashmir.  If India is even able to ensure the latter, the entire CPEC project of China would go down the drain and then China would have no further interest left in propagating Pakistan, which in due course will disintegrate into smaller segments and no longer pose any problems for India, but India should ensure that parts of Karachi, Gwadar etc. do not come under Chinese influence in future too.  The continued economic strangle hold on China by the International community, shall ensure disintegration of China too in the near future into smaller independent democratic nations, whose citizens will be freed of the forced subjugation and tyranny being faced by them, as these regions have been forcibly occupied by China (as detailed in my previous blog) while expanding its territory, as even a balloon explodes if it is stretched beyond a point.  Hope that this Chinese balloon blows up sooner than expected for the sake of world peace.

© S Roy Biswas

N.B - All the diagrams/photos have been accessed from the internet