Saturday, 2 October 2021

The Afghanistan cauldron –Taliban Government formation legitimate?

 The Afghanistan cauldron –Taliban Government formation legitimate?

As the Taliban militants takeover the Presidential Palace in Afghanistan

            In my previous blog, I had discussed about the historical and the then perspective of the Afghanistan crisis and its ramifications on the current day scenario.  I have waited for almost a month to check out as to how the scenario evolves and how far my analysis of the situation stands substantiated.  In my conclusion of the earlier article, just to remind my readers, I had observed as follows – “The fate of Afghanistan and its citizens, during the Taliban rule in mid-1990’s till their ouster from power, is well known the world over.  The philosophy of the group has not changed and it is only trying to portray itself as a reformed group.  However, the actions undertaken by the ordinary militia under Taliban control have not changed, nor have their mindset changed and they have already started committing atrocities upon the citizens of Afghanistan.   The United States has learnt its lesson and should not lend much credence to the so called ‘Peace accord’ with Taliban, as these fringe elements have no political compulsions to abide by the conditions stipulated therein, as is evident from the actions in recent days.  On the other hand Pakistan is heading for a huge set back, as their consistent support to Islamic militant & terrorist organizations, which is continuing unabated and hence the days for Pakistani leadership are numbered”. 

           

            It is now evident, from the details emerging about the events that unfolded in Afghanistan, that Pakistan Government and other non-State players, with overt and covert support of China were the authors of the Afghanistan episode.  The United States of America remained under the illusion that by showering its dollars, it could create enough incentive to keep Pakistan as its faithful watchdog in the region.  But despite boasting of one of the best espionage agencies in the world i.e. CIA, it could not fathom the double role of Pakistan.  Pakistan overtly showed support for USA, but covertly it continued to use the American dollars to train an array of Islamists militants like the Taliban, ISIS (K) and Haqqani Network etc.   Although some groups had broken away from Pakistan tutored ideology, like the ISIS (K) and the Teherik-e-Taliban (Pakistan), as these were more hardliner Islamists and wanted establishment of Sharia rule in Pakistan too.  It is evident from the unfolding the events since withdrawal of American forces, with the first casualty being delayed formation of the Taliban Government, which had to be postponed twice, even after announcement of specific dates and it is now evident that there was back-stabbing and arm twisting of Taliban by the ISI (Pakistan intelligence agency), to hand over major share of power to the Haqqani network.  Thus, instead of an inclusive Government, as per the ‘Peach accord’ reached with USA and Taliban, the Government is replete with a lop-sided majority of Pasthuns and here is the list -

             Let me now introduce you to the ideologue of the said Haqqani network, which is the backbone of Pakistan’s Islamic militant outfit, unlike the ISIS group that has its roots in middle east Asia, Africa and several off-shoots the world over, the Haqqani network is born and bred in Pakistan by its intelligence outfit ISI.  The Haqqani Network takes its name from the leader of the group, Jalaluddin Haqqani, who first fought the Soviet Army in Afghanistan as an ally of the CIA and the ISI and thereafter, fought the US and NATO forces.   Jalaluddin Haqqani, led a protected existence in North Waziristan, where Pakistan provided him and the entire group safe haven.  Jalaluddin Haqqani, belongs to the Zadran tribe from the Loya Paktia (Paktia, Paktika and Khost) area in eastern Afghanistan close to the border with Pakistan.   Jalaluddin Haqqani was a member of the anti-communist, anti-Soviet Hizb-e-Islami, and became active as a mujahedeen in the 1970s.  He is an alumnus of the Dar-ul-ulum Madrassa, also known as the jihad factory, in Al khora Khattak in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.  After his death in 2018, the mantle passed to his son Sirajuddin.  SIRAJUDDIN HAQQANI, 48, is the new Interior Minister — an appointment that has struck as an eye-sore for the international community, as he has been an UN-designated global terrorist since 2007 and the FBI had announced a reward of $ 10 million for information leading to his arrest. No recent photographs of him exists (none available on the internet).  The UN listing of Sirajuddin says he “participated in the financing, planning, facilitating, preparing, or perpetrating of acts or activities by, in conjunction with, under the name of, on behalf or in support of Taliban, al-Qaeda, and Jaish-i-Mohammed (now operating in Pakistan under Masood Azhar, another UN designated terrorist and known for his anti-India activities). 


The Haqqani militants in Afghanistan

            A recent report, by the Taliban Sanctions Monitoring Committee, also noted that one member state had pointed to a link between the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISIS-KP) and the Haqqani Network, but the Committee itself was unable to confirm this. The link centered on the leader of the ISIS-KP, Shahab al-Muhajir, who “may also have been previously a mid-level commander in the Haqqani Network”.  An earlier report of the Committee had stated that “one Member State has suggested that certain attacks can be denied by the Taliban and claimed by ISIL-K (same as the ISIS-KP) with it being unclear whether these attacks were purely orchestrated by the Haqqani Network, or were joint ventures making use of ISIL-K operatives”.  As recently as May this year, a UN report described the Haqqani Network as “Taliban’s most combat-ready forces [with] a highly skilled core of members who specialize in complex attacks and provide technical skills, such as improvised explosive device and rocket construction.The Haqqani Network remains a hub for outreach and cooperation with regional foreign terrorist groups and is the primary liaison between the Taliban and Al-Qaida”.  The erstwhile National Directorate of Security, the intelligence agency of the erstwhile Afghan government, had provided communication intercepts to Indian authorities that pointed to Haqqani involvement, allegedly with ISI support. A similar claim was made by the CIA. Other reports pointed to a Lashkar-e-Taiba involvement, with support from the Haqqani Network.  Thus, in my earlier blog, I had pointed out that the attacks in Kabul airport (claimed by ISIS – K) were in fact the handiwork of the ISI backed operatives to destabilize the Taliban.  The final delayed composition of the Afghan Government reflects a total takeover by the Haqqani network by placing their operative’s at all key driver positions in the Government and the Taliban per-se getting a side window at best.  The fate and whereabouts of Mullah Baradar, the face of the Taliban at Doha and designated Deputy Prime Minister, who has become publically invisible and rumors are rife about his having being killed by the Haqqani’s at behest of ISI or being under their custody.  Further, even the supreme commander of the Taliban, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada has disappeared altogether and is also said to have been killed by the Haqqani group, as his whereabouts are also not known.  The constant and untiring efforts of the Pakistani Government at all the levels, just to gain international acceptance and recognition for the present Afghan regime, shows its deep rooted interest in the Afghan affairs.  It is now evident and clearly established on records that the present regime, which essentially consist of internationally recognized terrorists has been duly propped up by Pakistan, with the overt and covert help of China.  The presence of the Pakistan ISI Chief and likes of Masood Azhar in Kabul around the time of Government formation is indication enough about the complicity of Pakistan Government machinery and non-State players i.e terrorist groups fostered by ISI and appearance of Chinese leaders lend credence to the theory of the coup being stage managed.  In view of this scenario, none from the International communion has recognized this Government in Afghanistan despite best of efforts by Pakistan, which apparently has backfired and probably made the Afghan Taliban bid to gain recognition even more difficult.

             Probably the quick exit by USA had something to do with intelligence inputs of USA military being inflicted a big physical blow, with Chinese help, to cause international humiliation for USA, this assumption cannot be ruled out, looking at the manner of retreat of US armed forces.  The other aspect of Chinese interest could be the tit-for-tat policy against India, having lost out on CPEC, to neutralize Indian investment in Afghanistan.  From the above narrated facts, it is evident that while on the one hand USA had taken Pakistan to be an ally, albeit for money, but it was a double crossing nation that used this money to build a terrorist organization and fed it, to bleed Americans throughout their association.  The housing of Al-Qaida chief in Pakistan should have been an eye opener of USA, which should have immediately re-assessed its association with Pakistan.  The present Pakistani political leadership is only a proxy and is being run from behind the curtains by its Army and ISI.  The Pakistan establishment, since its inception, has been diverting the attention of their masses, from its internal failures and siphoning of money by Political and military elements, by spewing venom against India, especially by highlighting the issue of Kashmir.  The entire generations have been only been fed with misinformation for narrow political gains, but as a nation it has failed and is on verge of becoming a failed Nation.  In order to gain some dollars through International humanitarian efforts etc. in Afghanistan, the Pakistani establishment thought that they would install a puppet regime and then blackmail the entire region into accepting the legitimacy of the new Afghan regime.  Pakistan thought that it could have the cake and eat it too.  However, the geo-political situation is fast changing, there is internal turmoil amongst Taliban regarding role of Pakistan.  Coupled with this act of some factions of Taliban questioning role of Pakistan in its internal affairs, there is every possibility of a long drawn civil war being played out in Afghanistan, which would have catastrophic effect on Pakistan’s economic conditions, as the same is already in the doldrums.  It is my assessment that even China would not gain much from the investments it is making there, if the situation remains as such, with several factions fighting each other.  The prediction about the Civil war is palpable, as the Tajiks have been deliberately left out of governance and the Northern alliance with support of Russian backed Tajikistan would not like to see a militant terrorism exporting State at its door step.  Iran on its part has chided Pakistan for its role in Pakistan and categorically denied to recognize the present regime in Afghanistan.  Being another country that shares a sizeable border with Afghanistan, also being an Islamic theocratic State, this action is a major setback for Pakistan and Afghan Governments.  Therefore, it now appears that Pakistan has bitten more than it could chew and will ultimately, not only loose Afghanistan, but its own identity as well in days to come, either through a takeover by a Islamic militant group or through fragmentation into different ethnic groups within, because of its fool hardy approach and highhandedness of the Punjabi politicians, akin to what had happened in Bangladesh.

 © S Roy Biswas

 

N.B – All the photographs, maps, video links have been sourced from the internet – as the article is for free academic use, specific permissions have not been solicited