The Afghanistan
cauldron –Taliban Government formation legitimate?
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| As the Taliban militants takeover the Presidential Palace in Afghanistan |
In my previous blog, I had discussed
about the historical and the then perspective of the Afghanistan crisis and its
ramifications on the current day scenario.
I have waited for almost a month to check out as to how the scenario
evolves and how far my analysis of the situation stands substantiated. In my conclusion of the earlier article, just
to remind my readers, I had observed as follows – “The fate of Afghanistan
and its citizens, during the Taliban rule in mid-1990’s till their ouster from
power, is well known the world over. The
philosophy of the group has not changed and it is only trying to portray itself
as a reformed group. However, the
actions undertaken by the ordinary militia under Taliban control have not
changed, nor have their mindset changed and they have already started
committing atrocities upon the citizens of Afghanistan. The United States has learnt its lesson and
should not lend much credence to the so called ‘Peace accord’ with Taliban, as
these fringe elements have no political compulsions to abide by the conditions
stipulated therein, as is evident from the actions in recent days. On the other hand Pakistan is heading for a
huge set back, as their consistent support to Islamic militant & terrorist
organizations, which is continuing unabated and hence the days for Pakistani
leadership are numbered”.
It is now evident, from the details
emerging about the events that unfolded in Afghanistan, that Pakistan
Government and other non-State players, with overt and covert support of China
were the authors of the Afghanistan episode.
The United States of America remained under the illusion that by
showering its dollars, it could create enough incentive to keep Pakistan as its
faithful watchdog in the region. But
despite boasting of one of the best espionage agencies in the world i.e. CIA,
it could not fathom the double role of Pakistan. Pakistan overtly showed support for USA, but
covertly it continued to use the American dollars to train an array of
Islamists militants like the Taliban, ISIS (K) and Haqqani Network etc. Although some groups had broken away from
Pakistan tutored ideology, like the ISIS (K) and the Teherik-e-Taliban
(Pakistan), as these were more hardliner Islamists and wanted establishment of
Sharia rule in Pakistan too. It is
evident from the unfolding the events since withdrawal of American forces, with
the first casualty being delayed formation of the Taliban Government, which had
to be postponed twice, even after announcement of specific dates and it is now
evident that there was back-stabbing and arm twisting of Taliban by the ISI
(Pakistan intelligence agency), to hand over major share of power to the
Haqqani network. Thus, instead of an
inclusive Government, as per the ‘Peach accord’ reached with USA and Taliban,
the Government is replete with a lop-sided majority of Pasthuns and here is the
list -
Let me now introduce you to the
ideologue of the said Haqqani network, which is the backbone of Pakistan’s
Islamic militant outfit, unlike the ISIS group that has its roots in middle
east Asia, Africa and several off-shoots the world over, the Haqqani network is
born and bred in Pakistan by its intelligence outfit ISI. The Haqqani Network takes its name from the
leader of the group, Jalaluddin Haqqani, who first fought the Soviet Army in
Afghanistan as an ally of the CIA and the ISI and thereafter, fought the US and
NATO forces. Jalaluddin Haqqani, led a protected existence
in North Waziristan, where Pakistan provided him and the entire group safe
haven. Jalaluddin Haqqani, belongs to
the Zadran tribe from the Loya Paktia (Paktia, Paktika and Khost) area in
eastern Afghanistan close to the border with Pakistan. Jalaluddin
Haqqani was a member of the anti-communist, anti-Soviet Hizb-e-Islami, and
became active as a mujahedeen in the 1970s.
He is an alumnus of the Dar-ul-ulum Madrassa, also known as the jihad
factory, in Al khora Khattak in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. After his death in 2018, the mantle passed to
his son Sirajuddin. SIRAJUDDIN HAQQANI, 48,
is the new Interior Minister — an appointment that has struck as an eye-sore for
the international community, as he has been an UN-designated global terrorist
since 2007 and the FBI had announced a reward of $ 10 million for information
leading to his arrest. No recent photographs of him exists (none available on
the internet). The UN listing of Sirajuddin says he
“participated in the financing, planning, facilitating, preparing, or
perpetrating of acts or activities by, in conjunction with, under the name of,
on behalf or in support of Taliban, al-Qaeda, and Jaish-i-Mohammed (now
operating in Pakistan under Masood Azhar, another UN designated terrorist and
known for his anti-India activities).
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| The Haqqani militants in Afghanistan |
A
recent report, by the Taliban Sanctions Monitoring Committee, also noted that
one member state had pointed to a link between the Islamic State-Khorasan
Province (ISIS-KP) and the Haqqani Network, but the Committee itself was unable
to confirm this. The link centered on the leader of the ISIS-KP, Shahab
al-Muhajir, who “may also have been previously a mid-level commander in the
Haqqani Network”. An earlier report of
the Committee had stated that “one Member State has suggested that certain
attacks can be denied by the Taliban and claimed by ISIL-K (same as the
ISIS-KP) with it being unclear whether these attacks were purely orchestrated
by the Haqqani Network, or were joint ventures making use of ISIL-K operatives”. As recently as May this year, a UN report
described the Haqqani Network as “Taliban’s most combat-ready forces [with] a
highly skilled core of members who specialize in complex attacks and provide
technical skills, such as improvised explosive device and rocket construction….The Haqqani Network remains a
hub for outreach and cooperation with regional foreign terrorist groups and is
the primary liaison between the Taliban and Al-Qaida”. The erstwhile National Directorate of
Security, the intelligence agency of the erstwhile Afghan government, had
provided communication intercepts to Indian authorities that pointed to Haqqani
involvement, allegedly with ISI support. A similar claim was made by the CIA.
Other reports pointed to a Lashkar-e-Taiba involvement, with support from the
Haqqani Network. Thus, in my earlier
blog, I had pointed out that the attacks in Kabul airport (claimed by ISIS – K)
were in fact the handiwork of the ISI backed operatives to destabilize the
Taliban. The final delayed composition
of the Afghan Government reflects a total takeover by the Haqqani network by
placing their operative’s at all key driver positions in the Government and the
Taliban per-se getting a side window at best.
The fate and whereabouts of Mullah Baradar, the face of the Taliban at
Doha and designated Deputy Prime Minister, who has become publically invisible
and rumors are rife about his having being killed by the Haqqani’s at behest of
ISI or being under their custody.
Further, even the supreme commander of the Taliban, Mullah Haibatullah
Akhundzada has disappeared altogether and is also said to have been killed by the
Haqqani group, as his whereabouts are also not known. The constant and untiring efforts of the
Pakistani Government at all the levels, just to gain international acceptance
and recognition for the present Afghan regime, shows its deep rooted interest
in the Afghan affairs. It is now evident
and clearly established on records that the present regime, which essentially
consist of internationally recognized terrorists has been duly propped up by Pakistan,
with the overt and covert help of China.
The presence of the Pakistan ISI Chief and likes of Masood Azhar in
Kabul around the time of Government formation is indication enough about the
complicity of Pakistan Government machinery and non-State players i.e terrorist
groups fostered by ISI and appearance of Chinese leaders lend credence to the
theory of the coup being stage managed. In
view of this scenario, none from the International communion has recognized
this Government in Afghanistan despite best of efforts by Pakistan, which
apparently has backfired and probably made the Afghan Taliban bid to gain
recognition even more difficult.
Probably
the quick exit by USA had something to do with intelligence inputs of USA
military being inflicted a big physical blow, with Chinese help, to cause
international humiliation for USA, this assumption cannot be ruled out, looking
at the manner of retreat of US armed forces.
The other aspect of Chinese interest could be the tit-for-tat policy
against India, having lost out on CPEC, to neutralize Indian investment in
Afghanistan. From the above narrated
facts, it is evident that while on the one hand USA had taken Pakistan to be an
ally, albeit for money, but it was a double crossing nation that used this
money to build a terrorist organization and fed it, to bleed Americans
throughout their association. The
housing of Al-Qaida chief in Pakistan should have been an eye opener of USA,
which should have immediately re-assessed its association with Pakistan. The present Pakistani political leadership is
only a proxy and is being run from behind the curtains by its Army and
ISI. The Pakistan establishment, since its
inception, has been diverting the attention of their masses, from its internal
failures and siphoning of money by Political and military elements, by spewing
venom against India, especially by highlighting the issue of Kashmir. The entire generations have been only been
fed with misinformation for narrow political gains, but as a nation it has
failed and is on verge of becoming a failed Nation. In order to gain some dollars through
International humanitarian efforts etc. in Afghanistan, the Pakistani establishment
thought that they would install a puppet regime and then blackmail the entire
region into accepting the legitimacy of the new Afghan regime. Pakistan thought that it could have the cake
and eat it too. However, the
geo-political situation is fast changing, there is internal turmoil amongst
Taliban regarding role of Pakistan. Coupled
with this act of some factions of Taliban questioning role of Pakistan in its
internal affairs, there is every possibility of a long drawn civil war being
played out in Afghanistan, which would have catastrophic effect on Pakistan’s
economic conditions, as the same is already in the doldrums. It is my assessment that even China would not
gain much from the investments it is making there, if the situation remains as
such, with several factions fighting each other. The prediction about the Civil war is
palpable, as the Tajiks have been deliberately left out of governance and the
Northern alliance with support of Russian backed Tajikistan would not like to
see a militant terrorism exporting State at its door step. Iran on its part has chided Pakistan for its
role in Pakistan and categorically denied to recognize the present regime in
Afghanistan. Being another country that
shares a sizeable border with Afghanistan, also being an Islamic theocratic
State, this action is a major setback for Pakistan and Afghan Governments. Therefore,
it now appears that Pakistan has bitten more than it could chew and will
ultimately, not only loose Afghanistan, but its own identity as well in days to
come, either through a takeover by a Islamic militant group or through
fragmentation into different ethnic groups within, because of its fool hardy approach
and highhandedness of the Punjabi politicians, akin to what had happened in
Bangladesh.
©
S Roy Biswas
N.B – All the
photographs, maps, video links have been sourced from the internet – as the
article is for free academic use, specific permissions have not been solicited
Good analysis!
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