Two
years of Ukraine war – a general analysis of the scenario
As the Russian tanks roll into Ukraine in Feb., 2022
Map of erstwhile Soviet Union |
Historical background
The Ukraine
region has had a chequered history and was never under occupation of any
specific group or category or class of persons, thus lacked an identity as an
independent nation for a long time. The
Cossacks had played a major role in the region during medieval periods and
subsequently Ukrainian lands fell under the rule of neighboring states –
Lithuania and Poland. In the 16th Century it merged into one of the
largest and most powerful monarchies in Europe that was known as the
Commonwealth. This state existed from the 16th to the end of the 18th century,
gathering the territories of modern Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia
and western Russia. However,
historically the region has been divided into Russian dominated Eastern banks
of Dnieper River and Poland and/or Lithuania dominated the Western banks over
large periods of time. The concept of
Ukraine as an independent entity started only after the French Revolution and
artists, play writers, poets etc. eulogizing Ukrainian identity and culture in
1840’s and slowly it gained momentum and was at center stage of Ukrainian
identity and ideology from 1905 to 1917.
Countries formed after breakdown of Soviet Union in 1991 |
The advent of the First World War created a state of flux in entire Europe and Ukraine was also drawn into this vortex. Although Ukraine enjoyed some kind of autonomy as an independent entity from 1917 to 1922, but it was short lived. Just after the culmination of World War-I, the Russian revolution had taken place and the Czar was replaced as head of Russia and a Communist regime was ushered in Russia under Vladimir Lenin in 1917. Thereafter, it was led by Joseph Stalin (1922-1952) who consolidated the position and defeated the Polish forces and entered into peace treaty with Poland in 1921 and effectively took complete control over Ukraine. Although there were some signs of discontent amongst the Ukrainians, but after declaration of Constitution of USSR on 30th December, 1922 and the consolidation of the Russian hold upon Ukraine between 1922-1930, albeit by allowing small language and governance related relaxations. Thereafter, the Second World War broke in 1939 and during the fight between Russian and German forces in 1941, the Ukrainian soldiers deserted their posts in support of invading German army and capitulated their posts, allowing free German army an almost free run through Ukrainian regions. In response, as the German army halted in the Kyiv region for further consolidation, the Russian army launched the ‘scorched earth’ strategy, whereby it burnt down all industrial units, food stocks and infrastructure to slow down the German advance. The German army lost the war in late 1943 and after their retreat, the Russians stung by the Ukrainian back stabbing, consolidated the political and economical hold over Ukraine by October, 1944 bringing it under total Soviet rule. However, after the era of Stalin, the next leader to head Soviet Union i.e. Nikita Khrushchev relaxed the strangle hold on Ukraine to some extent and as a gesture of goodwill gave Crimea to Ukraine to strengthen the brotherhood between the two States. Ukraine continued under Soviet occupation till its disintegration in 1990 and Ukraine declared itself as independent nation in 1991. Therefore, from the historical perspective Ukraine has never been a sovereign nation historically speaking, but has been a cauldron of many races mingling together and under occupation of varied nations during its past.
Initially,
after gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine having been ruled by Russia for a
very long time, continued its alliance with Russia, as their economies and
infrastructure etc. were intertwined.
After World War-II, the post war development of industries and farms
etc. were as per Soviet era design and five year plans and hence this
dependence continued. Even politically, a
major part of Ukraine comprised of Russian speaking people, with certain
regions having almost 1/3rd of such Russian speaking population and hence the
Russian influence was palpable. There
were several Russia backed leaders governing Ukraine since 1991, however, in
2001 one Viktor
Yanukovych who was said to be backed by Russia, lost the elections to the
supporters of pro-West group. During the
elections held in 2004, he was again re-elected, but there was widespread
protests termed as the ‘Orange Revolution’ that forced him out of power or
rather he was not allowed to take the oath.
As the newly elected party could not come up to the expectations of the
Ukrainians, Viktor Yanukovych was again legitimately elected in 2010. He continued in office till 2013, but in
beginning of 2014, as he did not agree for a pro-European Union referendum
agenda, there were widespread protests (some allege that the same was
perpetuated by the West & US) and the people wanted to throw out Viktor
Yanukovych from his office. Apparently,
some form of agreement was signed between the contending parties on 21st
February, 2014 as is stated in the news report (link is - https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/02/21/280622904/breakthrough-ukrainian-president-announces-concessions
), whereby it was decided to hold fresh elections within six months, but on
24th February, 2014 a riotous crowed stormed the Parliament building and Viktor Yanukovych
was forced to flee the country. Russia
then invaded Crimea, through indirect means, without direct military
intervention by sending armed groups and thereafter, held a referendum whereby
the population purportedly voted to be annexed with Russia. Russia holds that since Crimea had been part
of Russia and was gifted to Ukraine, with change in geo-political scenario it
had the right to take back its territory and protect interests of its own people,
the West differs from Russian point of view and has made it an international
rallying point against Russia.
Areas of Ukraine under Russian occupation on 4th May, 2022 |
Areas under occupation of Russia as on 15th Feb., 2024 |
Analysis – what United States & West
wanted to gain at the expense of Ukraine
The geo-political
scenario is a complex game, Russia albeit temporarily was able to stabilize its
eastern borders (with China), as both United States and China were engaged in a
race for world supremacy. Russia is also
aware that China cannot be relied upon in the long run and hence is following
the policy of ‘make hay while the sun shines’.
From the historical perspective, it is easy to perceive that United
States had been the biggest beneficiary financially after World War-I and World
War-II by selling its arms and ammunitions.
It is in continuous habit of raking up geo-political issues all across
the globe and also war mongering. This
allows the United States to sell its armaments and thereby swelling its coffers
after every such incident. The coming
together of China and USSR, was the biggest challenge after the cold war and
after the Covid-19 outbreak, United States is no longer in a very firm
financial standing. On the other hand
Russia was slowly, but steadily reaffirming its economic powers and one of its
strongest source of economy was by selling gas and petroleum products alongwith
electricity to European nations. In
order to drive a sledge in this economic boom for Russia that had helped Russia
by executing the Nord Stream-I project, the first target of United States was
the Nord Stream-II project, which was being built as an even bigger gas and
petroleum products related pipe line for Europe from Russia. In order to create the wedge in relations, it
preyed upon the minds of European countries regarding the political fallback of
a strong Russia in Europe and used the invasion of Crimea as one such example. The geo-political games are never an
overnight event, but rather one drawn and orchestrated across years, if not
decades. After, displacing the
pro-Russian powers in Ukraine in 2014, the Americans continued training and
building up arms reserves etc. in Ukraine clandestinely and continued to
threaten the European countries with a Crimea like attack by Russia and at the
same time kept looking for a political novice to get Russia involved in direct
war. United States found the comedian
actor, who wanted to act like a ‘Superman’ on world stage in Zelensky and
encouraged him to seek NATO membership as an irritant for Russia. Either way, it would have spelt doom for
Russia, had Putin ignored, NATO forces would have been at his door step and in
case he wanted to protect Russian interests he had to have a buffer zone
militarily and was forced to create one.
Since, as detailed above, the Eastern side of Ukraine have been under
influence of Russian regimes since centuries and through back door intervention
by United States et al, Ukrainian governments since 2014 have been trying to
change the demographic set up of the region that had evoked political back
lash, which had turned into a militant one, the Russian had an opportunity to
have a buffer zone and hence attacked.
Ukrainian soldiers withdrawing from Avdiivka |
©
S Roy Biswas