Two years of Ukraine war – a general analysis of the scenario

 

Two years of Ukraine war – a general analysis of the scenario

As the Russian tanks roll into Ukraine in Feb., 2022

            The war between Ukraine and Russia erupted on 24^th February, 2022 and after initial Russian breakthrough that was followed by a counter offensive by Ukraine in August, 2022 whereby they had been able to take a chunk of their land back from Russian occupation, it had almost reached a stalemate over the past two years.  Both the concerned were making claims and counter-claims of inflicting heavy damage to the other.  However, the recent news of the fall of region of Avdiivka to Russian forces (may check the news at – https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68322527) has again rekindled the debate about the future of the Ukraine war.  The reasons as to why Russians invaded Ukraine has been portrayed in a lopsided manner by the Western media since the war erupted and a balanced view of the origin of conflict has been missing and hence I have tried to put a narrative based on facts and figures, as an unbiased third party view of the conflict.

Map of erstwhile Soviet Union

Historical background

The Ukraine region has had a chequered history and was never under occupation of any specific group or category or class of persons, thus lacked an identity as an independent nation for a long time.  The Cossacks had played a major role in the region during medieval periods and subsequently Ukrainian lands fell under the rule of neighboring states – Lithuania and Poland. In the 16^th Century it merged into one of the largest and most powerful monarchies in Europe that was known as the Commonwealth. This state existed from the 16th to the end of the 18th century, gathering the territories of modern Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia and western Russia.  However, historically the region has been divided into Russian dominated Eastern banks of Dnieper River and Poland and/or Lithuania dominated the Western banks over large periods of time.  The concept of Ukraine as an independent entity started only after the French Revolution and artists, play writers, poets etc. eulogizing Ukrainian identity and culture in 1840’s and slowly it gained momentum and was at center stage of Ukrainian identity and ideology from 1905 to 1917.

Countries formed after breakdown of Soviet Union in 1991

             The advent of the First World War created a state of flux in entire Europe and Ukraine was also drawn into this vortex.  Although Ukraine enjoyed some kind of autonomy as an independent entity from 1917 to 1922, but it was short lived.  Just after the culmination of World War-I, the Russian revolution had taken place and the Czar was replaced as head of Russia and a Communist regime was ushered in Russia under Vladimir Lenin in 1917.  Thereafter, it was led by Joseph Stalin (1922-1952) who consolidated the position and defeated the Polish forces and entered into peace treaty with Poland in 1921 and effectively took complete control over Ukraine.  Although there were some signs of discontent amongst the Ukrainians, but after declaration of Constitution of USSR on 30^th December, 1922 and the consolidation of the Russian hold upon Ukraine between 1922-1930, albeit by allowing small language and governance related relaxations.  Thereafter, the Second World War broke in 1939 and during the fight between Russian and German forces in 1941, the Ukrainian soldiers deserted their posts in support of invading German army and capitulated their posts, allowing free German army an almost free run through Ukrainian regions.  In response, as the German army halted in the Kyiv region for further consolidation, the Russian army launched the ‘scorched earth’ strategy, whereby it burnt down all industrial units, food stocks and infrastructure to slow down the German advance.  The German army lost the war in late 1943 and after their retreat, the Russians stung by the Ukrainian back stabbing, consolidated the political and economical hold over Ukraine by October, 1944 bringing it under total Soviet rule.  However, after the era of Stalin, the next leader to head Soviet Union i.e. Nikita Khrushchev relaxed the strangle hold on Ukraine to some extent and as a gesture of goodwill gave Crimea to Ukraine to strengthen the brotherhood between the two States.  Ukraine continued under Soviet occupation till its disintegration in 1990 and Ukraine declared itself as independent nation in 1991.  Therefore, from the historical perspective Ukraine has never been a sovereign nation historically speaking, but has been a cauldron of many races mingling together and under occupation of varied nations during its past.

 Modern day Ukraine

            Initially, after gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine having been ruled by Russia for a very long time, continued its alliance with Russia, as their economies and infrastructure etc. were intertwined.  After World War-II, the post war development of industries and farms etc. were as per Soviet era design and five year plans and hence this dependence continued.  Even politically, a major part of Ukraine comprised of Russian speaking people, with certain regions having almost 1/3rd of such Russian speaking population and hence the Russian influence was palpable.  There were several Russia backed leaders governing Ukraine since 1991, however, in 2001 one Viktor Yanukovych who was said to be backed by Russia, lost the elections to the supporters of pro-West group.  During the elections held in 2004, he was again re-elected, but there was widespread protests termed as the ‘Orange Revolution’ that forced him out of power or rather he was not allowed to take the oath.  As the newly elected party could not come up to the expectations of the Ukrainians, Viktor Yanukovych was again legitimately elected in 2010.  He continued in office till 2013, but in beginning of 2014, as he did not agree for a pro-European Union referendum agenda, there were widespread protests (some allege that the same was perpetuated by the West & US) and the people wanted to throw out Viktor Yanukovych from his office.  Apparently, some form of agreement was signed between the contending parties on 21^st February, 2014 as is stated in the news report (link is - https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/02/21/280622904/breakthrough-ukrainian-president-announces-concessions ), whereby it was decided to hold fresh elections within six months, but on 24th February, 2014 a riotous crowed stormed the Parliament building and Viktor Yanukovych was forced to flee the country.  Russia then invaded Crimea, through indirect means, without direct military intervention by sending armed groups and thereafter, held a referendum whereby the population purportedly voted to be annexed with Russia.  Russia holds that since Crimea had been part of Russia and was gifted to Ukraine, with change in geo-political scenario it had the right to take back its territory and protect interests of its own people, the West differs from Russian point of view and has made it an international rallying point against Russia.

Areas of Ukraine under Russian occupation on 4th May, 2022

Areas under occupation of Russia as on 15th Feb., 2024

             In 2019, Ukraine elected their new President Volodymyr Zelensky, who won a landslide victory.  He had no political background or experience whatsoever, but he suited the strategy of West & United States, as any person with a higher political acumen would have made him/her think twice before jumping into any kind of direct war with Russia.  The evaluation/assessment of capabilities of Zelensky as President by the Western media can be gauged from the headline of the BBC post that read as – ‘Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky: The comedian president who is rising to the moment’ -  link is as follows - (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59667938).  Evidently, Zelensky has been led into a trap by the West, rather than Putin falling into one as is being portrayed by many Western media analysts.  It was a Hobson’s choice of Putin, as Russia needs to keep its borders neutral as far as possible, so as not to bleed militarily in future with Western (read NATO) forces breathing down its neck and in stark contrast Zelensky because of his lack of political acumen and poor academic background, has pushed Ukraine back to the pre- industrialization days in physical sense.

 Analysis – what United States & West wanted to gain at the expense of Ukraine

            The geo-political scenario is a complex game, Russia albeit temporarily was able to stabilize its eastern borders (with China), as both United States and China were engaged in a race for world supremacy.  Russia is also aware that China cannot be relied upon in the long run and hence is following the policy of ‘make hay while the sun shines’.  From the historical perspective, it is easy to perceive that United States had been the biggest beneficiary financially after World War-I and World War-II by selling its arms and ammunitions.   It is in continuous habit of raking up geo-political issues all across the globe and also war mongering.  This allows the United States to sell its armaments and thereby swelling its coffers after every such incident.  The coming together of China and USSR, was the biggest challenge after the cold war and after the Covid-19 outbreak, United States is no longer in a very firm financial standing.  On the other hand Russia was slowly, but steadily reaffirming its economic powers and one of its strongest source of economy was by selling gas and petroleum products alongwith electricity to European nations.  In order to drive a sledge in this economic boom for Russia that had helped Russia by executing the Nord Stream-I project, the first target of United States was the Nord Stream-II project, which was being built as an even bigger gas and petroleum products related pipe line for Europe from Russia.  In order to create the wedge in relations, it preyed upon the minds of European countries regarding the political fallback of a strong Russia in Europe and used the invasion of Crimea as one such example.  The geo-political games are never an overnight event, but rather one drawn and orchestrated across years, if not decades.  After, displacing the pro-Russian powers in Ukraine in 2014, the Americans continued training and building up arms reserves etc. in Ukraine clandestinely and continued to threaten the European countries with a Crimea like attack by Russia and at the same time kept looking for a political novice to get Russia involved in direct war.  United States found the comedian actor, who wanted to act like a ‘Superman’ on world stage in Zelensky and encouraged him to seek NATO membership as an irritant for Russia.  Either way, it would have spelt doom for Russia, had Putin ignored, NATO forces would have been at his door step and in case he wanted to protect Russian interests he had to have a buffer zone militarily and was forced to create one.  Since, as detailed above, the Eastern side of Ukraine have been under influence of Russian regimes since centuries and through back door intervention by United States et al, Ukrainian governments since 2014 have been trying to change the demographic set up of the region that had evoked political back lash, which had turned into a militant one, the Russian had an opportunity to have a buffer zone and hence attacked.

Ukrainian soldiers withdrawing from Avdiivka

    However, there was two pronged failure on part of Russia while assessing the situation.  Russia’s Generals over assessment of their military might had not made them see the ground realities, like the extent to which United States and its allies had trained the military of Ukraine and also established strongholds all across Ukraine.  Secondly, Russia committed the same blunder as Germany had done, by stretching its line of offence to such an extent, where it became so thin that it was very difficult to defend it and was subsequently breached by the Ukrainian forces by August, 2022.  Russia and China have now come up with an alternative to keep United States engaged elsewhere in the world geo-political scenario and with help of Iran, it has orchestrated an attack on Israel, which has got the desired result for Russia, as that area is more important and strategic for United State.  Ukraine has thus, lost its military supply support and is left fighting Russia in its own backyard, which was never going to be easy, even for bigger military formations, what to say about a minnow like Ukraine, which was just but fighting a proxy battle on behest of the Western interests albeit to the detriment to its own interests.  Ukraine has now been pulverized beyond recognition and it will take decades, if not a century, to reach its former glory, if it ever does.  Why I am drawing this bleak scenario is because of the current geo-political scenario, as most of the world’s leading economies are in shambles after the Covid-19 pandemic and hence are not in a position to continue with sustain military aid etc. to Ukraine.  Therefore, the fall of region of Avdiivka to Russian forces may be the beginning of the end of Ukraine (may check the news at – https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68322527). My take is that although Russia will never annex Ukraine fully, but will keep a major portion, especially the Eastern region as a buffer region with the West.  Further, the post-war resurrection of Ukraine would be allowed at a deliberate slow pace by Russia and as Ukraine has been reduced from the status of a developed nation to almost to a status of a developing nation, it will find its way back to former glory, a long and arduous task.  All this has happened because of fool hardiness of a political novice and ill-informed politician, who also does not boast of a very high academic IQ, the comedian has actually performed a ‘Comedy of errors’, at the cost of his own population.  I say so because the extent of damage caused to the civilian and military establishment can be seen through this photo feature article that appeared in CNN publication – (https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2022/05/world/ukraine-war-photographers-cnnphotos/). 

© S Roy Biswas

 N.B – All the photographs, maps, video links have been sourced from the internet – as the article is for free academic use, specific permissions have not been solicited