The Afghanistan cauldron –Taliban Government formation legitimate?

 The Afghanistan cauldron –Taliban Government formation legitimate?

As the Taliban militants takeover the Presidential Palace in Afghanistan

            In my previous blog, I had discussed about the historical and the then perspective of the Afghanistan crisis and its ramifications on the current day scenario.  I have waited for almost a month to check out as to how the scenario evolves and how far my analysis of the situation stands substantiated.  In my conclusion of the earlier article, just to remind my readers, I had observed as follows – “The fate of Afghanistan and its citizens, during the Taliban rule in mid-1990’s till their ouster from power, is well known the world over.  The philosophy of the group has not changed and it is only trying to portray itself as a reformed group.  However, the actions undertaken by the ordinary militia under Taliban control have not changed, nor have their mindset changed and they have already started committing atrocities upon the citizens of Afghanistan.   The United States has learnt its lesson and should not lend much credence to the so called ‘Peace accord’ with Taliban, as these fringe elements have no political compulsions to abide by the conditions stipulated therein, as is evident from the actions in recent days.  On the other hand Pakistan is heading for a huge set back, as their consistent support to Islamic militant & terrorist organizations, which is continuing unabated and hence the days for Pakistani leadership are numbered”. 

           

            It is now evident, from the details emerging about the events that unfolded in Afghanistan, that Pakistan Government and other non-State players, with overt and covert support of China were the authors of the Afghanistan episode.  The United States of America remained under the illusion that by showering its dollars, it could create enough incentive to keep Pakistan as its faithful watchdog in the region.  But despite boasting of one of the best espionage agencies in the world i.e. CIA, it could not fathom the double role of Pakistan.  Pakistan overtly showed support for USA, but covertly it continued to use the American dollars to train an array of Islamists militants like the Taliban, ISIS (K) and Haqqani Network etc.   Although some groups had broken away from Pakistan tutored ideology, like the ISIS (K) and the Teherik-e-Taliban (Pakistan), as these were more hardliner Islamists and wanted establishment of Sharia rule in Pakistan too.  It is evident from the unfolding the events since withdrawal of American forces, with the first casualty being delayed formation of the Taliban Government, which had to be postponed twice, even after announcement of specific dates and it is now evident that there was back-stabbing and arm twisting of Taliban by the ISI (Pakistan intelligence agency), to hand over major share of power to the Haqqani network.  Thus, instead of an inclusive Government, as per the ‘Peach accord’ reached with USA and Taliban, the Government is replete with a lop-sided majority of Pasthuns and here is the list -

             Let me now introduce you to the ideologue of the said Haqqani network, which is the backbone of Pakistan’s Islamic militant outfit, unlike the ISIS group that has its roots in middle east Asia, Africa and several off-shoots the world over, the Haqqani network is born and bred in Pakistan by its intelligence outfit ISI.  The Haqqani Network takes its name from the leader of the group, Jalaluddin Haqqani, who first fought the Soviet Army in Afghanistan as an ally of the CIA and the ISI and thereafter, fought the US and NATO forces.   Jalaluddin Haqqani, led a protected existence in North Waziristan, where Pakistan provided him and the entire group safe haven.  Jalaluddin Haqqani, belongs to the Zadran tribe from the Loya Paktia (Paktia, Paktika and Khost) area in eastern Afghanistan close to the border with Pakistan.   Jalaluddin Haqqani was a member of the anti-communist, anti-Soviet Hizb-e-Islami, and became active as a mujahedeen in the 1970s.  He is an alumnus of the Dar-ul-ulum Madrassa, also known as the jihad factory, in Al khora Khattak in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.  After his death in 2018, the mantle passed to his son Sirajuddin.  SIRAJUDDIN HAQQANI, 48, is the new Interior Minister — an appointment that has struck as an eye-sore for the international community, as he has been an UN-designated global terrorist since 2007 and the FBI had announced a reward of $ 10 million for information leading to his arrest. No recent photographs of him exists (none available on the internet).  The UN listing of Sirajuddin says he “participated in the financing, planning, facilitating, preparing, or perpetrating of acts or activities by, in conjunction with, under the name of, on behalf or in support of Taliban, al-Qaeda, and Jaish-i-Mohammed (now operating in Pakistan under Masood Azhar, another UN designated terrorist and known for his anti-India activities). 

The Haqqani militants in Afghanistan

            A recent report, by the Taliban Sanctions Monitoring Committee, also noted that one member state had pointed to a link between the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISIS-KP) and the Haqqani Network, but the Committee itself was unable to confirm this. The link centered on the leader of the ISIS-KP, Shahab al-Muhajir, who “may also have been previously a mid-level commander in the Haqqani Network”.  An earlier report of the Committee had stated that “one Member State has suggested that certain attacks can be denied by the Taliban and claimed by ISIL-K (same as the ISIS-KP) with it being unclear whether these attacks were purely orchestrated by the Haqqani Network, or were joint ventures making use of ISIL-K operatives”.  As recently as May this year, a UN report described the Haqqani Network as “Taliban’s most combat-ready forces [with] a highly skilled core of members who specialize in complex attacks and provide technical skills, such as improvised explosive device and rocket construction….The Haqqani Network remains a hub for outreach and cooperation with regional foreign terrorist groups and is the primary liaison between the Taliban and Al-Qaida”.  The erstwhile National Directorate of Security, the intelligence agency of the erstwhile Afghan government, had provided communication intercepts to Indian authorities that pointed to Haqqani involvement, allegedly with ISI support. A similar claim was made by the CIA. Other reports pointed to a Lashkar-e-Taiba involvement, with support from the Haqqani Network.  Thus, in my earlier blog, I had pointed out that the attacks in Kabul airport (claimed by ISIS – K) were in fact the handiwork of the ISI backed operatives to destabilize the Taliban.  The final delayed composition of the Afghan Government reflects a total takeover by the Haqqani network by placing their operative’s at all key driver positions in the Government and the Taliban per-se getting a side window at best.  The fate and whereabouts of Mullah Baradar, the face of the Taliban at Doha and designated Deputy Prime Minister, who has become publically invisible and rumors are rife about his having being killed by the Haqqani’s at behest of ISI or being under their custody.  Further, even the supreme commander of the Taliban, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada has disappeared altogether and is also said to have been killed by the Haqqani group, as his whereabouts are also not known.  The constant and untiring efforts of the Pakistani Government at all the levels, just to gain international acceptance and recognition for the present Afghan regime, shows its deep rooted interest in the Afghan affairs.  It is now evident and clearly established on records that the present regime, which essentially consist of internationally recognized terrorists has been duly propped up by Pakistan, with the overt and covert help of China.  The presence of the Pakistan ISI Chief and likes of Masood Azhar in Kabul around the time of Government formation is indication enough about the complicity of Pakistan Government machinery and non-State players i.e terrorist groups fostered by ISI and appearance of Chinese leaders lend credence to the theory of the coup being stage managed.  In view of this scenario, none from the International communion has recognized this Government in Afghanistan despite best of efforts by Pakistan, which apparently has backfired and probably made the Afghan Taliban bid to gain recognition even more difficult.

             Probably the quick exit by USA had something to do with intelligence inputs of USA military being inflicted a big physical blow, with Chinese help, to cause international humiliation for USA, this assumption cannot be ruled out, looking at the manner of retreat of US armed forces.  The other aspect of Chinese interest could be the tit-for-tat policy against India, having lost out on CPEC, to neutralize Indian investment in Afghanistan.  From the above narrated facts, it is evident that while on the one hand USA had taken Pakistan to be an ally, albeit for money, but it was a double crossing nation that used this money to build a terrorist organization and fed it, to bleed Americans throughout their association.  The housing of Al-Qaida chief in Pakistan should have been an eye opener of USA, which should have immediately re-assessed its association with Pakistan.  The present Pakistani political leadership is only a proxy and is being run from behind the curtains by its Army and ISI.  The Pakistan establishment, since its inception, has been diverting the attention of their masses, from its internal failures and siphoning of money by Political and military elements, by spewing venom against India, especially by highlighting the issue of Kashmir.  The entire generations have been only been fed with misinformation for narrow political gains, but as a nation it has failed and is on verge of becoming a failed Nation.  In order to gain some dollars through International humanitarian efforts etc. in Afghanistan, the Pakistani establishment thought that they would install a puppet regime and then blackmail the entire region into accepting the legitimacy of the new Afghan regime.  Pakistan thought that it could have the cake and eat it too.  However, the geo-political situation is fast changing, there is internal turmoil amongst Taliban regarding role of Pakistan.  Coupled with this act of some factions of Taliban questioning role of Pakistan in its internal affairs, there is every possibility of a long drawn civil war being played out in Afghanistan, which would have catastrophic effect on Pakistan’s economic conditions, as the same is already in the doldrums.  It is my assessment that even China would not gain much from the investments it is making there, if the situation remains as such, with several factions fighting each other.  The prediction about the Civil war is palpable, as the Tajiks have been deliberately left out of governance and the Northern alliance with support of Russian backed Tajikistan would not like to see a militant terrorism exporting State at its door step.  Iran on its part has chided Pakistan for its role in Pakistan and categorically denied to recognize the present regime in Afghanistan.  Being another country that shares a sizeable border with Afghanistan, also being an Islamic theocratic State, this action is a major setback for Pakistan and Afghan Governments.  Therefore, it now appears that Pakistan has bitten more than it could chew and will ultimately, not only loose Afghanistan, but its own identity as well in days to come, either through a takeover by a Islamic militant group or through fragmentation into different ethnic groups within, because of its fool hardy approach and highhandedness of the Punjabi politicians, akin to what had happened in Bangladesh.

 © S Roy Biswas

 

N.B – All the photographs, maps, video links have been sourced from the internet – as the article is for free academic use, specific permissions have not been solicited

The Afghanistan cauldron – a perspective

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The Afghanistan cauldron – a perspective

A deceptive tranquility - a lone soldier on guard in Afghanistan

        What is happening in Afghanistan today, has its roots in its past and to understand it, we will have to delve into its recent past and its history to chalk out a narrative.   Many of the younger generations are not aware in details of the fact about presence of outside powers dominating the geo-political scenario of the region and hence I will start this blog with a brief narrative about the History & Geography of the region, which will be followed by the modern day occupation of Afghanistan and its after affects.

Brief Ancient History

Ancient map of India in 1 AD

Afghanistan as it is known today, has its roots in the ancient times and excavations in the region, especially at Darra-e-Kur, revealed about 800 stone age implements, thereby indicating human existence in the region during 5000 BCE.  The region finds mention in ancient Hindu treatises like Mahabharata, wherein it has been referred to as Gandhara, implying that it was an ancient Hindu kingdom.  Later this region came to be ruled by the Kamboj’s and then interspersed by various Indo-Greek rulers, followed by the Mauryan dynasty.  Gradually thereafter, it came under influence of the Buddhism and Gandhara was recognized and ruled as one of the Mahajanpadas amongst the sixteen (16) Mahajanpadas existing during the 5^th-6^th Century BCE. 

Map of Afghanistan in 5-6 BCE - Mahajanpadas covering Afghanistan region

The region, being bestowed with great wealth accumulated by the rulers, started attracting various marauding groups of mercenaries, whose main aim was to plunder and loot.  The Huns were the first to attack and gain foothold in the region, as Buddhism was slowly waning in the country.  They gradually established their kingdom and came to be known a Hephthalite Empire, who were mainly responsible for the plunder and burning of the grand University of Takshashila.  The Muslim influence gained foothold in the region around 650 BCE, with the advent of multiple attacks by the Arabs and establishment of Kutub Sahi dynasty. Thereafter, the region came to be ruled by various Muslim rulers like Mahmud of Ghazni (who was basically a barbaric plunderer), Genghis Khan and Babur (founder of Mughal dynasty).  It was only in the 1700 CE that the entire consolidation of the region was possible and modern day Afghanistan came into existence.  The British took over the region from the India (Mughals) and fought many a wars to retain their hold, till they were finally defeated in 1921, in the third Anglo-Afghan war.  The period following it was that of turmoil, till Mohammed Zahir Shah took over as its ruler through a coup in 1933 and ruled for next forty years.

 Geography

Political map of Afghanistan

Geographical map of Afghanistan

            Afghanistan is a land locked region that can be geographically described to be placed in South Asia or Central Asia and hence it has a very strategic geographic location.  The main geographical relief of the country is the Hindukush mountain range that runs from the north-east to the south-west portion of Afghanistan and divides it into three major regions – (a) The Central Highlands (that account for 2/3^rd region of the country); (b) the South West Plateau (that accounts of 1/4^th of the land mass of the country); and (c) the Northern plains.  Elevation wise the highest elevations are in the North-east region of the Hindukush Mountains known as the Pamir, bordering China that gradually tapers down towards the South-west portion bordering Iran.  Afghanistan has common border with six countries and it shares its largest border alongwith Pakistan of about 1,689 Kms. that runs along the Durand line drawn by the British (which is still contested by the Afghans, as it divides the majority Pusthun speaking areas into two halves).  The shortest length of the border is that with China, which is merely 76 Kms. long corridor and the remaining four countries sharing borders with Afghanistan as running from its north-east to south-west on its western border are Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Iran.

 The Soviet Occupation

Soviet tanks roll into Afghanistan in 1979

            Many of the younger generation are not familiar with the name ‘Soviet’, as it now ceases to exist.  Earlier, after the end of the Second World War, the world order stood divided into two main political formations, the Capitalists/Democracy and the Communists/Single party rule.  The main conglomerate of the Communists was what was known as the United Soviet Socialists Republic (USSR for short) and comprised of countries like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine etc. and was ruled by the Communists from Moscow.  It was only after the disintegration of the erstwhile USSR in 1990 with declaration of Lithuania as an independent country in 1991 that other countries followed suit and by end of 1991 all of Soviet Union had been dismembered into small independent nations and biggest amongst them was Russia.

Soviet military helicopters in Afghanistan

             Afghanistan had come under Communist influence from 1953 onwards with introduction of pro-Communist Gen. Mohemmad Daoud Khan as its Prime Minister. Following the assurance of assistance for wide spread development by the then Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev in 1956, the country started opening up for education for women etc.  The last ruler of Afghanistan Mohammed Zahir Shah was overthrown in a coup in 1973 by Gen. Khan, who then established firm ties with erstwhile USSR.  Gen. Khan was then overthrown in a coup in 1978 and the powers slipped into hands of Nur Mohammad Taraki as President and Babrak Karmal as his Deputy, who declared introduction of Islamic principles for governance.  However, they were opposed by another communist leader Hafizullah Amin. 

Mujahedeen forces fighting Soviets in Afghanistan

Mujahedeen forces in occupied Soviet tanks

The Northern Alliance firing on the Soviets

             In the power struggle between pro-Islam Nur Mohammad Taraki (with covert support of USA) and Hafizullah Amin (with support of erstwhile USSR), the former was killed in September, 1979 and in order to physically bolster their regime in Afghanistan and to subvert the covert American war, the Soviets launched a full scale military assault in Afghanistan on 24^th December, 1979.  In order to reduce Communist influence in the region, the Americans had propped up a guerilla force, who were referred to as Mujahedeen rebels, opposing the open society policy being introduced by Gen. Khan.  These rebels were being provided with arms and ammunition and training in Pakistan by the Americans.  

Invasion by Soviet Union - representation through map

         This occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviets continued till 1989 that ended after signing of peace accord in Geneva by USA, erstwhile USSR, Pakistan and Afghanistan.  However, the war continued in Afghanistan against the Soviet backed President Mohammad Naijibullah, whose tenure ended after being overthrown by the Mujahedeen led by Ahmad Shah Masood in 1992.  The Mujahedeen had in the meanwhile become more politically active and formed an umbrella organization called Taliban in 1995 and took over Kabul in early 1997.  President Mohammad Naijibullah took refuge in the United Nations building in Kabul, but after remaining holed up for about four months, he was brutally killed by the Mujahedeen/Taliban in 1997, after storming the UN building and hanging him publicly on an electricity pole.  It would also not be out of place to mention here that the so called Al Qaida was also nurtured by the USA during their covert war in Afghanistan, which became its nemesis in 9/11 attack in 2001.

 An old video of Soviet era in Afghanistan

(https://youtu.be/fZI1AIggBl0)

The American Invasion

Operation Enduring Liberty - B-52 bomber of US forces - October, 2001

            The prelude to the American invasion of Afghanistan is more important than the actual event itself.  After the fall of Kabul in 1992, a series of infighting had started amongst the Afghan warlords to consolidate their political positions on ground for being able to rule Afghanistan.  Due to this constant conflicts taking place within the country, coupled with droughts and total absence of any central governance, the people of Afghanistan were getting impatient and wanted peace.  By 1995 another faction of the Mujahedeen emerged as Taliban, who promised peace with enforcement of strict Islamic/Sharia laws that included total seclusion of the women and assumption of power in Kabul.  Slowly this faction gained full control of Afghanistan and enforced strict Islamic laws including Public amputations, stoning to death, executions etc.  The people of Afghanistan got fed up of this daily torture, coupled with repeated droughts etc., started taking refuge in neighboring countries in large numbers.  The USA had refused to grant recognition to this Taliban Government, which upped the ante against it.  In the meanwhile, the group called Al Qaida that had been propped up against the erstwhile Soviet rule by the Americans, had turned into a Frankenstein for the Americans, having bombed two American embassies in Africa in 1998.  Probably the Taliban was in cahoots with the Al Qaida, as the operations were effected from the Afghan soil.  President Bill Clinton had ordered retaliatory cruise missile attacks on the Al Qaida operatives, but their leadership survived the attacks unscathed.  The name of Osama Bin Laden had started surfacing, as the brain behind the bombings of American embassies, but the Taliban regime in Afghanistan refused to extradite him, during the request made by the US in the year 2000.  The intolerant Taliban regime carried out the bombing and destruction of the ancient Bamiyan statues of Buddha, despite international uproar in the year 2001. 

The 11th September, 2001 attack by Al Qaida in US - known as 9/11

The only known warlord fighting the Taliban at that point of time was the ‘Lion of Panjshir’, leader of the Northern Alliance, Ahmed Shah Masood, who was clandestinely assassinated by Taliban posing as journalists on 9^th September, 2001.  The final straw was broken, once the Al Qaida operatives carried out the 9/11 (11^th September, 2001) bombings of various commercial buildings in American cities by using hijacked planes.  Despite requests for handing over Osama Bin Laden, the Taliban regime refuse to do so leading to bombing of the Taliban targets by US and British forces on 7^th October, 2001 and the ground forces enter action twelve days later.  Simultaneously the Northern Alliance, agitated by their leaders assassination, attack Taliban and after weeks of war reach Kabul and enter it on 13^th November, 2001 forcing the Taliban to retreat. 

Airlifting of US forces in Afghanistan in 2001

US forces in Afghanistan

            A caretaker Government led by President Hamid Karzai was installed in Kabul with the backing of the United States in 2001 and thereafter he won the elections and continued as the President till 2014.  In the meanwhile whereas the American forces slowly took over the command and control of most the regions of Afghanistan through the active co-operation of the NATO forces.  The Al Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden was finally killed by the American forces after tracing his location to Abbottabad a suburb of Islamabad in Pakistan on 2^nd May, 2011.  Thereafter, in 2012 when an American soldier massacred sixteen (16) Afghan civilians in their homes and there was a huge ‘hue & cry’, the President of Afghanistan called for reduction of American soldiers and giving them a limited role in Afghanistan.  In the year 2013 the Afghan army/police took over most of the security and military operations from the Americans.  In 2014, the then US President Barak Obama announced significant reduction of US forces in Afghanistan and by December of the same year NATO forces ceased from active military missions and remained only to train the Afghan forces.

Wounded US marine being evacuated in Afghanistan

Afghan forces standing guard in Afghanistan

            In the year 2017, President Donald Trump refused to withdraw totally from Afghanistan stating that he was not inclined to leave as it was likely to create – “a vacuum for terrorists”.  This was followed by signing of a peace deal between the USA and Taliban in February, 2019 whereby the American forces were to leave by May, 2021.  However, this deal was abrogated by the US President in September, 2019 after a US soldier was shot dead by Taliban insurgents.  However, by November 2020 it was announced by the US Government to reduce its strength to 50% of its existing one by January, 2021.  Thereafter, the new President Joe Biden in April, 2021 announced total withdrawal of US troops by 9^th September, 2021.

 Present day conditions

Fall of Kabul to Taliban being celebrated in Pakistan with distribution of sweets

            The hasty withdrawal of the forces by the US, without first arranging for the withdrawal of the international citizens on priority basis, working in Afghanistan for the US led forces, has jeopardized the entire withdrawal process.  It is total lack of common sense as well as evaluation of the Taliban’s credentials by the present US President that has led to this turmoil.  The acts on part of American troops of abandoning the Bagram Air base on 5^th July, 2021 without even mandatorily informing the Afghan armed forces personnel stationed there, shows the thorough lack of intent and professionalism on part of the US armed forces.  Especially, the stealthy night retreat and cutting off of the electricity connection emboldened the Taliban, who started believing that the US Army was running away because of their fear. This had, on the other hand, sent a totally opposite signal to Afghan soldiers.  The Afghan soldiers felt abandoned and brooded about some big operation on part of Taliban was imminent, because of the manner in which such a hasty retreat had been executed by the US army, leaving behind tons of war related vehicles, guns, ammunitions etc., which have now fallen into Taliban hands.  The system of US army being supported by local contractors for running the day to day affairs also collapsed suddenly with the sudden withdrawal of the US army and the Afghan soldier that was trained by the US Army in this specific manner of combat, were all at sea in absence of these contractors, who abandoned their work as payment due to them for executing the works was not available.  Buoyed by the manner of US army withdrawal, the Taliban fuelled by new energy and vigor, upped the ante and entered Kabul on 15^th August, 2021 and overthrew the Afghanistan Government.  President Ashraf Ghani, in the meantime had fled from Kabul on the previous day fearing Taliban takeover, which I find is logical on his part, looking at the fate of late President Mohammad Naijibullah met at hands of Taliban in 1997.

Suicide bomb attack on Kabul airport on 27th August, 2021

          There are thousands of Afghans who fear persecution for being part of the Government or having worked with or for the US interests in Afghanistan and by providing the list of such citizens to the Taliban for allowing them entry into Kabul Airport, by the US Army, have jeopardized their lives.  However, the entire Kabul is now in the hands of Taliban, who are not allowing the residents to move freely.  On night of 26^th August, 2021 there were human/suicide bomb explosion in the Kabul airport gate, in which more than thousand have been injured and many civilians killed alongwith 13 US Marines and about 28 of Taliban (including their elite Red Brigade commandos).  The ISIS (Khurrasan) has overtly taken responsibility for these attacks, but the fact remains that these terrorists were in Afghan Police custody in Bagram and duly released by the Taliban only recently.  The entire evacuation process now stands in a disarray, due to the short foresight and rank bad execution of the repatriation process of the US armed forces, under the Joe Biden administration

The Afghanistan cauldron

The Taliban forces guarding Kabul

Like the case of Taliban and Al Qaida being hand in glove during the late 1990’s, the link between ISIS (Khurrasan) and Taliban both of which, have been nurtured in Pakistan, with active connivance of the United States in 1980’s and now independently by Pakistan, with the active support of China, cannot be ruled out.  This dastardly act on part of the ISIS has put the entire region into a geo-political flux.  The USSR had singed it’s hands in the 1980’s and the US which had nurtured the Mujahedeen then, have now faced their own Frankenstein and consequently singed their hands as well, having lost money, time, arsenals and pride.  Now as is evident from the recent meetings the Chinese had with the Taliban (the Taliban leaders reached China on Pakistani passports), it appears that China has not learned it’s lessons from the history of the region and is playing with fire as well, albeit from behind the curtains, but it will probably meet the same fate as the other super powers. 

The Taliban militia in Kabul

The Islamists are never true to their words and act only with one point agenda of perpetrating terror, for propagating their religious  beliefs and imposing it onto others and establish Islamic rule on those, whom they consider as ‘non believers’ or ‘Kafirs’.  Chinese belligerence in engaging with their ethnic Muslim populations, referred to as the Uyghur’s, by repressing them by use of brutal force is well known the world over.  As soon as the Taliban and ISIS consolidate their hold in Afghanistan, they will look towards their immediate neighboring countries, including China to liberate their brethren and establish Islamic rule there.   The other probable reason for Chinese interest in the region, could be the inherent fear of India taking over Pakistan occupied Kashmir, thereby jeopardizing the entire CPEC project.  By striking a deal with the Taliban for providing passage for CPEC through Afghanistan in lieu of money, recognition etc., Chinese leadership probably believes that they will bypass the Western countries and India, in implementing the CPEC project.  However, the acts of terrorism in Pakistan against the Chinese engineers etc., which could be only for gaining sympathy from the world, in a clandestine deal with Pakistan, if not, then these acts should ring a bell that conditions in Afghanistan are even more harsher than those in Pakistan and it may have to pay a much heavier price than it bargained for.

The so called elite Red brigade of the Taliban on road side

Russia, which looks upon itself as the successor of the USSR, on the other hand is also enjoying the show and using clandestine techniques to keep the Taliban going, for teaching a lesson to the US, for having perpetrated this group in the 1980’s against them.  In this scenario, it appears that the Americans have deliberately left behind a huge cache of arms & ammunition that include small arms, combat vehicles and even small man portable surface to air missile units, to keep the area simmering for the days to come.  But if the Taliban is able to consolidate its position and power in Afghanistan, it will definitely look for associations with ultra-terrorist Islamic groups like ISIS, Hamas etc. and look towards its Islamic neighbors like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for imposing the radical Islamic governments there.  This in long run is going to hurt the Russian interests as well, so Russia should follow the old proverb of – “Once bitten, twice shy” and Russia should take all remedial measures available with it, to stop Taliban before it grows roots and dismantle it, by providing help and assistance to the other factions fighting the Taliban, in consonance with the proverb – ‘A stitch in time, saves nine”.

What is in stake for India

            The entire nation of Pakistan is fed on a single propaganda from the day one of their births i.e. to liberate Kashmir from India.  This agenda is propagated with gusto for the public consumption by all political parties in power or outside and even the Military establishment, as a tool to deflect the public opinion from other burning issues like lack of infrastructure, food scarcity, spiraling inflation etc.  Over the generations, the Pakistani establishment as well as the public is so encompassed with this notion of liberation of Kashmir that they now have been made to believe that Taliban will deliver Kashmir to them.  However, as the Taliban, having become politically austere, after the 2001 debacle, is now showing unwillingness to interfere in political affairs of other nations, for the present.  But the Pakistan establishment is getting restless and had sent the wanted internationally proclaimed terrorist Hafiz Saeed of the Jaish-e-Mohammad to Kabul, as the Pakistani establishment wants to project before its masses, as to how big geo-political coup they have engineered in Afghanistan, which will pave way for freedom of Kashmir.  However, the statement issued by Taliban does not meet their expectations and hence apparently they have now reined in the ISIS (Khurrasan) into the Afghanistan cauldron, to intimidate Taliban, for meeting their demands of causing unrest in Kashmir.  The main aim of Pakistan is to shift focus onto Taliban, so that it can state before the world forum that Pakistan has no control over Taliban.  This has become a necessity for Pakistan, as its consistent sponsored insurgency of terrorists into Kashmir is now publicly known the world over and it has now been internationally cornered and exposed for such activities related to state sponsored terrorism. 

The Taliban militia in Kabul

             Therefore, India should beef up its security along the Pakistan border and also now use unbridled fire power, without bothering for civilian casualties etc. across the border, if Pakistan allows its soil to be used for any kind of terrorist activity in Kashmir.  This is the perfect time and opportunity to hit back and finish what Pakistan started decades ago, since Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan is now crystal clear before the world community and some of their leaders have openly admitted to the same. 

Conclusion

The fate of Afghanistan and its citizens, during the Taliban rule in mid-1990’s till their ouster from power, is well known the world over.  The philosophy of the group has not changed and it is only trying to portray itself as a reformed group.  However, the actions undertaken by the ordinary militia under Taliban control have not changed, nor have their mindset changed and they have already started committing atrocities upon the citizens of Afghanistan.   The United States has learnt its lesson and should not lend much credence to the so called ‘Peace accord’ with Taliban, as these fringe elements have no political compulsions to abide by the conditions stipulated therein, as is evident from the actions in recent days.  On the other hand Pakistan is heading for a huge set back, as their consistent support to Islamic militant & terrorist organizations, which is continuing unabated and hence the days for Pakistani leadership are numbered, as the proverb goes – “As you sow, so shall you reap”.  Pakistan’s home grown terrorist organizations like Tehrik-e-Taliban (Pakistan), is an ideological offshoot of the Taliban ideology and terrorists like Hafiz Saeed, in order to achieve their ends, may try and take over the political establishment in Pakistan in lines with the Taliban.  In such a scenario, the Pakistani nukes may find way into hands of the Islamic terrorists, who can use them to strike anywhere in the World, including United States or other European countries, Israel and India and also China could be targeted. 

The Northern Alliance fighters in the Panjshir valley in Afghanistan

There is an old local proverb that goes as – “It takes a thorn, to take out another” (literal translation of the proverb), the factual simile of this proverb implies that since it was the Northern Alliance in late 1990’s that had ousted the Taliban from Kabul, only they can now be relied upon to take on the Taliban.  This Northern Alliance is fighting for their pride and nation, which is a big a commitment viz a viz the Taliban’s religious commitment.  With a huge chunk of Afghan army personnel, duly trained by the US, having joined forces with the Northern Alliance, the world powers should provide them all kind of support needed to overcome the current debacle and set up a rule of law in Afghanistan.  The past history has well established that direct outside interference does not work in Afghanistan and only a local group can control the situation better and appropriately.  Accordingly, as of now the Northern Alliance is the only hope before the world to establish a long lasting peace in Afghanistan.

© S Roy Biswas

N.B – All the photographs, maps, video links have been sourced from the internet – as the article is for free academic use, specific permissions have not been solicited

A conspiracy theory – is the new strain of Corona virus a biological warfare

 

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A conspiracy theory – is the new strain of Corona virus a biological warfare

It is because of dedicated and steadfast approach of Corona warriors that India has remained by and large unscathed in this biological warfare

            I have been writing about the evolution of the Covid-19 or Corona virus since last year and I am of the firm belief that it is actually a man-made virus that originated in Wuhan laboratories in China and deliberately spread all over the world.  To go through the detailed analysis, one can read this blog of mine titled – ‘A case study – whether SARS Covid-19 is man-made virus or a virus that evolved through natural mutation’ – link to the blog is - http://shantanuroybiswas.blogspot.com/2020/04/case-study-whether-sars-covid-19-is-man.html - but it will only evince interest for those who are academically inclined to study it in detail.   However, it is evident that the kind of impact China had expected did not materialize and the world, by and large withstood this biological onslaught and survived, but China stood exposed.  However, the Chinese leadership, especially their President Xi Jinping, who wants to record his name in the annals of history, appears to be a pathologically disturbed man and instead of correcting the mistake, he started threatening all his immediate geographically aligned neighbours, as well as those in the South China sea region to establish his regional hegemony first and then proceed to take over the rest of the World.  Intentions of President Xi Jinping are far more sinister than even Hitler and he would not shy away from using any kind of tool for attaining his dream, even if he has to behave like the Mongol warlord Changez Khan.  I have made a detailed analysis of his intents in my blog titled – ‘What ails China?  An analysis of Chinese expansionist policy’ – here is the link to the blog - http://shantanuroybiswas.blogspot.com/2020/07/what-ails-china-analysis-of-chinese.html - an interesting blog regarding facts with details.

A graph representing the case increase in two waves in India

             In pursuance of the above said policies being followed by China, it threatened India in Ladakh and also in areas adjoining Sikkim and also in Arunachal Pradesh, but the main military build-up was in Ladakh.  However, due to certain strategic reasons, China had to withdraw from the Pangong region and here is the link to the blog explaining the circumstances and reasons for the Chinese withdrawal titled -  ‘How China Stands in Ladakh – a strategic analysis’ – and the link to the blog is as - http://shantanuroybiswas.blogspot.com/2020/09/how-china-stands-in-ladakh-strategic.html and this was actually a setback for China due to India’s aggressive defensive posture.  But this had actually peeved China and especially their President Xi Jinping, who saw it as a personal setback for his grand plans of expansion.  China has always been running its operation covertly and hence this time also, after partial withdrawal from Pangong region, it continued to dither while withdrawing from the Depsang plains region, in total contravention of its earlier commitments during the several rounds of talks. 

A graphical representation of how the Corona graph evolved in the three most affected nations

But this part withdrawal was not without reason, as the Chinese think tank embarked upon their most relied upon methodology of unleashing covert operations within India, with the help of their long-time allies and money leeches within the country, by exploiting the most fragile part in democracy i.e. right to protest (as it had done in USA just before elections) and try to render the country totally paralyzed in all fronts.  This would have a dual impact, as not only it would have projected the image of India as an unreliable destination for foreign investment, but also resulted in economic slowdown and therefrom militarily weakening India (due to dwindling funds).   I have covered this aspect also in my previous blog titled – ‘The China angle in fomenting discontent in the country & the role of Indian media’ – the link to this blog is - http://shantanuroybiswas.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-chinaangle-in-fomenting-discontent.html - this is a must read, because it is the precursor to the present analysis and will help in understanding the background, so that the present blog can be understood and appreciated regarding the analysis done.

Graph representing case loads and fatalities in India during the two waves

             Having failed to get the desired result, this present strain of virus has been introduced into India, apparently by the Chinese, as no other nation except of the USA, Canada and some European nations have the knowhow and expertise to genetically modify a virus.  Most of us have been reading or watching the Television channels and seen many horrid details emanating from the second wave of Corona virus invasion and personally aware of its virulence and mortality rate.  Having gone through many articles and through my personal knowledge and discussions,  I have come to this conclusion that this virus is definitely man made and a tailored one and the reasons for such assumptions are as follows –

1)      The present mutant is a double mutant having both characteristics of the UK and Brazilian strains;

2)      Whereas, the UK strain is highly virulent and thus infects large number of persons very quickly, the Brazilian strain has a high mortality rate;

3)      Whereas, UK was one of the first to introduce the vaccination for Corona virus, it had riled China and in order to discredit the UK vaccination program, this strain was introduced there by the Chinese agents;

4)      Brazil is a very big market, like India, but it had rejected and also displayed before the world about the poor efficacy of the Chinese vaccine and banned it.  Thus, the Chinese dream of making bid moolah out of their home grown vaccine had taken a severe beating worldwide and pissed of China badly, therefore it introduced the dangerous strain with high mortality in Brazil, to teach it a lesson;

5)      It is general principle in biology that mutations either take place randomly/automatically or when the genetic materials mingle.  Since viruses have only RNA, exchange of genetic codes is difficult, although it may happen rarely.  However, whenever such exchange takes place sufficient compatible genetic material is required to be available.  However, neither the UK strain nor the Brazilian strain has been reported to be in large circulation in India and therefore, the question of genetic mutation or exchange of RNA strands of both the strains forming another mutant naturally, incorporating both the strains in one virus strain does not arise, then how did this double mutant that caused havoc in India come from?  This is a question all of you must ponder about and ask your knowledgeable friends about my assertion;

6)      This virus first made its entry into Mumbai, but how and why, is the question?  Thereafter, it reached Delhi and at one point to time 67 percent of cases were reported from 22 per cent of the States and out of which, most of such States were ruled by the opposition parties like Congress and its allies or Leftists, except for one State i.e. Gujrat (Modi ji belongs to this State and hence needed to be discredited) – here is the link to the news providing the data - https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/trends/covid-19-second-wave-in-india-10-worst-affected-states-with-highest-number-of-coronavirus-infections/story/436872.html .  How is it that the virus was selectively moving into opposition ruled States?  Was it a pre-planned strategy to increase the case load and to discredit the Central Government?

7)      Starting from Palghar incident, followed by action against Republic Television and its founder etc., a state of anarchy was apparent and the exposure of the latest scam of the Home Minister shows that there was ample scope to exploit this State leadership for launching such an attack in India, especially when the Congress party, a signatory to a pact with CCP, was in power in the State and could go to any extent to discredit the Central Government, coupled with other allies whose only intent was to mint money – here is the link to newspaper article showing the data regarding spread of Corona both in first and second wave in charts - https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/explained-in-10-charts-the-rise-of-covid-19-second-wave-in-india/articleshow/81910892.cms ;

8)      We should now join the dots to draw a picture,  a man made strain is introduced into an opposition ruled State and this virus is moving across only opposition ruled States, where the Central Government cannot take any direct action, as Health is a State subject (here is link to newspaper article showing this trend - https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indias-78-of-covid-19-cases-emerging-from-5-states-amid-fears-of-second-wave-101615801439550.html );

9)      In USA the number of Corona cases on per day basis rose from 1 lakh per day to 3 lakhs per day over a period of 70 days, whereas in India these very numbers were attained in India within a short span of 18 days.  Even a highly advanced country like USA’s healthcare system was in tethers when the pandemic was at peak there and juxtaposed to it the Indian health care system is much less advanced and hence was bound to be under greater stress.  Thus, the opposition could home in into this weak point and hammer the Central Government, by peddling lies or by creating artificial scarcity etc., which the common man could not easily comprehend;

The graph representing rate of acceleration in India viz a viz other nations

10)  Thereafter, as per the pre-determined script, the blame game was generated by the opposition parties, which apparently had been pre-meditated and started being churned out from Hospital beds, Oxygen shortage, medicines etc., in association with certain sects of the media, which started highlighting this false and fabricated propaganda.  From the previous phase of the pandemic, some lessons ought to have been learned by the political leadership, like putting a ban on high rates charged by Hospitals, right from the point the second wave started and this was to be done by the State Governments, but was deliberately not done to mint money through underhand deals.  Then local ambulance and other micro-management which too was to be done by the States, was an abject failure, but they continued to blame the Central Government for the same. 

11)  Anticipation of Oxygen demand was to be done by State Governments in advance and again blame game was started by opposition leaders.  Whereas in place like Maharashtra where case load was much higher, the Oxygen demand was pegged at about 260 MT per day, whereas in place like Delhi, which is almost 1/10^th size or even smaller, set a requirement of 700 MT of Oxygen per day and the Government started drumming this issue day in and day out.  However, when the Hon’ble Supreme Court ordered Oxygen audit, this aspect got slowly muted out and presently the State Government is saying that it has excess Oxygen for sharing with other States.  In order to draw away the attention from the Oxygen fiasco, when siphoning of Oxygen cylinders etc. and illegal sale of Oxygen concentrators by particular businessmen with connection with the Government functionaries started circulating, in order to divert the attention of the general Public, the new rhetoric of lack of vaccines, which is being privately produced started being drummed up as failure on part of Central Government.  However, it has been discovered that State Govt. of Maharashtra was deliberating creating hurdles in setting up of another vaccine producing center in Pune by a leading vaccine manufacturer of India through its Forest Department and after High Court took a very strong exception to it, having exposed the role of opposition in this sordid affair, did this allegation slowly fade out;

12)  There was a hue and cry to induct the military to assist the civilian population by the opposition parties, with sole intent to maim it through infection, as per the advice of China and probably because of payments being tendered in outside countries into accounts of some unscrupulous opposition leaders.  But orders of various High Courts stalled this game plan;

13)  So China was able to de-stabilize the Indian Government through its overt and covert moves, with help of certain elements within our country, but the resilience of our Medical and other allied workers, India has been able to considerably reduce the mortality rate;

14)  This allegation being levelled in this blog against China, can be understood from past acts of China that had withdrawn from Pangong area, but had continued with its presence in Depsang plains, as explained in my earlier blogs mentioned hereinabove;

15)  China was waiting for the weather to be better and as the summer season started, it took an U-turn and stated officially that whatever India had gained earlier, let it remain satisfied with it and showed its unwillingness to withdraw any further, despite the agreement reached during meetings, as per its known habit and policy of not biding with even written agreements;

16)  Just after the pandemic started reaching alarming proportions, China deployed heavy artillery battery along with heavy backup of rockets etc. and also strengthened its field positions.  However, this is not going to work for them this time too as the Indian army is as vigilant as ever on our International borders and a huge salute to them.

         The second wave brought in a huge response from the world community and even USA that was playing hard-ball initially, probably on behest of Pfizer group, fell in line with international opinion gradually growing against its stand and it sent medical equipment etc. to India,  along with umpteen other nations from all over the world.  The opposition game is slowly getting exposed and in the long run, their acts of defrauding the citizens now during the pandemic, will lead to their political graveyards later.  It is evident from the above points that the present second wave was a well-orchestrated attempt to launch biological warfare against India by China, which had covert and overt support from certain elements within India.

Status of case load in India and mortalities as on 14.5.2021

 NB – All the photographs and Charts etc. have been collated from the internet for academic use only

© S Roy Biswas