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The Afghanistan
cauldron – a perspective
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| A deceptive tranquility - a lone soldier on guard in Afghanistan |
Brief Ancient History
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| Ancient map of India in 1 AD |
Afghanistan
as it is known today, has its roots in the ancient times and excavations in the
region, especially at Darra-e-Kur, revealed about 800 stone age
implements, thereby indicating human existence in the region during 5000
BCE. The region finds mention in ancient
Hindu treatises like Mahabharata, wherein it has been referred to as Gandhara,
implying that it was an ancient Hindu kingdom.
Later this region came to be ruled by the Kamboj’s and then interspersed
by various Indo-Greek rulers, followed by the Mauryan dynasty. Gradually thereafter, it came under influence
of the Buddhism and Gandhara was recognized and ruled as one of the
Mahajanpadas amongst the sixteen (16) Mahajanpadas existing during the 5th-6th
Century BCE.
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| Map of Afghanistan in 5-6 BCE - Mahajanpadas covering Afghanistan region |
The region, being bestowed with great wealth accumulated by the rulers, started attracting various marauding groups of mercenaries, whose main aim was to plunder and loot. The Huns were the first to attack and gain foothold in the region, as Buddhism was slowly waning in the country. They gradually established their kingdom and came to be known a Hephthalite Empire, who were mainly responsible for the plunder and burning of the grand University of Takshashila. The Muslim influence gained foothold in the region around 650 BCE, with the advent of multiple attacks by the Arabs and establishment of Kutub Sahi dynasty. Thereafter, the region came to be ruled by various Muslim rulers like Mahmud of Ghazni (who was basically a barbaric plunderer), Genghis Khan and Babur (founder of Mughal dynasty). It was only in the 1700 CE that the entire consolidation of the region was possible and modern day Afghanistan came into existence. The British took over the region from the India (Mughals) and fought many a wars to retain their hold, till they were finally defeated in 1921, in the third Anglo-Afghan war. The period following it was that of turmoil, till Mohammed Zahir Shah took over as its ruler through a coup in 1933 and ruled for next forty years.
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Political map of Afghanistan Geographical map of Afghanistan |
Afghanistan is a land locked region
that can be geographically described to be placed in South Asia or Central Asia
and hence it has a very strategic geographic location. The main geographical relief of the country
is the Hindukush mountain range that runs from the north-east to the south-west
portion of Afghanistan and divides it into three major regions – (a) The
Central Highlands (that account for 2/3rd region of the country);
(b) the South West Plateau (that accounts of 1/4th of the land mass
of the country); and (c) the Northern plains.
Elevation wise the highest elevations are in the North-east region of
the Hindukush Mountains known as the Pamir, bordering China that gradually
tapers down towards the South-west portion bordering Iran. Afghanistan has common border with six
countries and it shares its largest border alongwith Pakistan of about 1,689
Kms. that runs along the Durand line drawn by the British (which is still
contested by the Afghans, as it divides the majority Pusthun speaking areas
into two halves). The shortest length of
the border is that with China, which is merely 76 Kms. long corridor and the
remaining four countries sharing borders with Afghanistan as running from its
north-east to south-west on its western border are Tajikistan, Uzbekistan,
Turkmenistan and Iran.
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| Soviet tanks roll into Afghanistan in 1979 |
Many of the younger generation are
not familiar with the name ‘Soviet’, as it now ceases to exist. Earlier, after the end of the Second World
War, the world order stood divided into two main political formations, the
Capitalists/Democracy and the Communists/Single party rule. The main conglomerate of the Communists was
what was known as the United Soviet Socialists Republic (USSR for short) and
comprised of countries like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine etc.
and was ruled by the Communists from Moscow.
It was only after the disintegration of the erstwhile USSR in 1990 with
declaration of Lithuania as an independent country in 1991 that other countries
followed suit and by end of 1991 all of Soviet Union had been dismembered into
small independent nations and biggest amongst them was Russia.
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| Soviet military helicopters in Afghanistan |
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Mujahedeen forces fighting Soviets in Afghanistan Mujahedeen forces in occupied Soviet tanks  The Northern Alliance firing on the Soviets |
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| Invasion by Soviet Union - representation through map |
(https://youtu.be/fZI1AIggBl0)
The American
Invasion
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| Operation Enduring Liberty - B-52 bomber of US forces - October, 2001 |
The
prelude to the American invasion of Afghanistan is more important than the
actual event itself. After the fall of
Kabul in 1992, a series of infighting had started amongst the Afghan warlords
to consolidate their political positions on ground for being able to rule
Afghanistan. Due to this constant
conflicts taking place within the country, coupled with droughts and total
absence of any central governance, the people of Afghanistan were getting
impatient and wanted peace. By 1995
another faction of the Mujahedeen emerged as Taliban, who promised peace with
enforcement of strict Islamic/Sharia laws that included total seclusion of the
women and assumption of power in Kabul.
Slowly this faction gained full control of Afghanistan and enforced
strict Islamic laws including Public amputations, stoning to death, executions
etc. The people of Afghanistan got fed
up of this daily torture, coupled with repeated droughts etc., started taking
refuge in neighboring countries in large numbers. The USA had refused to grant recognition to
this Taliban Government, which upped the ante against it. In the meanwhile, the group called Al Qaida
that had been propped up against the erstwhile Soviet rule by the Americans,
had turned into a Frankenstein for the Americans, having bombed two American
embassies in Africa in 1998. Probably
the Taliban was in cahoots with the Al Qaida, as the operations were effected
from the Afghan soil. President Bill
Clinton had ordered retaliatory cruise missile attacks on the Al Qaida
operatives, but their leadership survived the attacks unscathed. The name of Osama Bin Laden had started
surfacing, as the brain behind the bombings of American embassies, but the
Taliban regime in Afghanistan refused to extradite him, during the request made
by the US in the year 2000. The
intolerant Taliban regime carried out the bombing and destruction of the
ancient Bamiyan statues of Buddha, despite international uproar in the year
2001.
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| The 11th September, 2001 attack by Al Qaida in US - known as 9/11 |
The
only known warlord fighting the Taliban at that point of time was the ‘Lion of
Panjshir’, leader of the Northern Alliance, Ahmed Shah Masood, who was
clandestinely assassinated by Taliban posing as journalists on 9th
September, 2001. The final straw was
broken, once the Al Qaida operatives carried out the 9/11 (11th
September, 2001) bombings of various commercial buildings in American cities by
using hijacked planes. Despite requests
for handing over Osama Bin Laden, the Taliban regime refuse to do so leading to
bombing of the Taliban targets by US and British forces on 7th
October, 2001 and the ground forces enter action twelve days later. Simultaneously the Northern Alliance,
agitated by their leaders assassination, attack Taliban and after weeks of war
reach Kabul and enter it on 13th November, 2001 forcing the Taliban
to retreat.
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Airlifting of US forces in Afghanistan in 2001 US forces in Afghanistan |
A caretaker Government led by President Hamid Karzai was installed in Kabul with the backing of the United States in 2001 and thereafter he won the elections and continued as the President till 2014. In the meanwhile whereas the American forces slowly took over the command and control of most the regions of Afghanistan through the active co-operation of the NATO forces. The Al Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden was finally killed by the American forces after tracing his location to Abbottabad a suburb of Islamabad in Pakistan on 2nd May, 2011. Thereafter, in 2012 when an American soldier massacred sixteen (16) Afghan civilians in their homes and there was a huge ‘hue & cry’, the President of Afghanistan called for reduction of American soldiers and giving them a limited role in Afghanistan. In the year 2013 the Afghan army/police took over most of the security and military operations from the Americans. In 2014, the then US President Barak Obama announced significant reduction of US forces in Afghanistan and by December of the same year NATO forces ceased from active military missions and remained only to train the Afghan forces.
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Wounded US marine being evacuated in Afghanistan Afghan forces standing guard in Afghanistan |
In the year 2017, President Donald Trump refused to withdraw totally from Afghanistan stating that he was not inclined to leave as it was likely to create – “a vacuum for terrorists”. This was followed by signing of a peace deal between the USA and Taliban in February, 2019 whereby the American forces were to leave by May, 2021. However, this deal was abrogated by the US President in September, 2019 after a US soldier was shot dead by Taliban insurgents. However, by November 2020 it was announced by the US Government to reduce its strength to 50% of its existing one by January, 2021. Thereafter, the new President Joe Biden in April, 2021 announced total withdrawal of US troops by 9th September, 2021.
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| Fall of Kabul to Taliban being celebrated in Pakistan with distribution of sweets |
The hasty withdrawal of the forces
by the US, without first arranging for the withdrawal of the international
citizens on priority basis, working in Afghanistan for the US led forces, has
jeopardized the entire withdrawal process.
It is total lack of common sense as well as evaluation of the Taliban’s
credentials by the present US President that has led to this turmoil. The acts on part of American troops of
abandoning the Bagram Air base on 5th July, 2021 without even
mandatorily informing the Afghan armed forces personnel stationed there, shows
the thorough lack of intent and professionalism on part of the US armed forces. Especially, the stealthy night retreat and
cutting off of the electricity connection emboldened the Taliban, who started
believing that the US Army was running away because of their fear. This had, on
the other hand, sent a totally opposite signal to Afghan soldiers. The Afghan soldiers felt abandoned and
brooded about some big operation on part of Taliban was imminent, because of the
manner in which such a hasty retreat had been executed by the US army, leaving
behind tons of war related vehicles, guns, ammunitions etc., which have now
fallen into Taliban hands. The system of
US army being supported by local contractors for running the day to day affairs
also collapsed suddenly with the sudden withdrawal of the US army and the
Afghan soldier that was trained by the US Army in this specific manner of
combat, were all at sea in absence of these contractors, who abandoned their
work as payment due to them for executing the works was not available. Buoyed by the manner of US army withdrawal,
the Taliban fuelled by new energy and vigor, upped the ante and entered Kabul
on 15th August, 2021 and overthrew the Afghanistan Government. President Ashraf Ghani, in the meantime had
fled from Kabul on the previous day fearing Taliban takeover, which I find is
logical on his part, looking at the fate of late President Mohammad Naijibullah
met at hands of Taliban in 1997.
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| Suicide bomb attack on Kabul airport on 27th August, 2021 |
There are thousands of Afghans who fear persecution for being part of the Government or having worked with or for the US interests in Afghanistan and by providing the list of such citizens to the Taliban for allowing them entry into Kabul Airport, by the US Army, have jeopardized their lives. However, the entire Kabul is now in the hands of Taliban, who are not allowing the residents to move freely. On night of 26th August, 2021 there were human/suicide bomb explosion in the Kabul airport gate, in which more than thousand have been injured and many civilians killed alongwith 13 US Marines and about 28 of Taliban (including their elite Red Brigade commandos). The ISIS (Khurrasan) has overtly taken responsibility for these attacks, but the fact remains that these terrorists were in Afghan Police custody in Bagram and duly released by the Taliban only recently. The entire evacuation process now stands in a disarray, due to the short foresight and rank bad execution of the repatriation process of the US armed forces, under the Joe Biden administration
The Afghanistan cauldron
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| The Taliban forces guarding Kabul |
Like
the case of Taliban and Al Qaida being hand in glove during the late 1990’s,
the link between ISIS (Khurrasan) and Taliban both of which, have been nurtured
in Pakistan, with active connivance of the United States in 1980’s and now
independently by Pakistan, with the active support of China, cannot be ruled
out. This dastardly act on part of the
ISIS has put the entire region into a geo-political flux. The USSR had singed it’s hands in the 1980’s
and the US which had nurtured the Mujahedeen then, have now faced their own
Frankenstein and consequently singed their hands as well, having lost money,
time, arsenals and pride. Now as is
evident from the recent meetings the Chinese had with the Taliban (the Taliban
leaders reached China on Pakistani passports), it appears that China has not
learned it’s lessons from the history of the region and is playing with fire as
well, albeit from behind the curtains, but it will probably meet the same fate
as the other super powers.
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| The Taliban militia in Kabul |
The Islamists are never true to their words and act only with one point agenda of perpetrating terror, for propagating their religious beliefs and imposing it onto others and establish Islamic rule on those, whom they consider as ‘non believers’ or ‘Kafirs’. Chinese belligerence in engaging with their ethnic Muslim populations, referred to as the Uyghur’s, by repressing them by use of brutal force is well known the world over. As soon as the Taliban and ISIS consolidate their hold in Afghanistan, they will look towards their immediate neighboring countries, including China to liberate their brethren and establish Islamic rule there. The other probable reason for Chinese interest in the region, could be the inherent fear of India taking over Pakistan occupied Kashmir, thereby jeopardizing the entire CPEC project. By striking a deal with the Taliban for providing passage for CPEC through Afghanistan in lieu of money, recognition etc., Chinese leadership probably believes that they will bypass the Western countries and India, in implementing the CPEC project. However, the acts of terrorism in Pakistan against the Chinese engineers etc., which could be only for gaining sympathy from the world, in a clandestine deal with Pakistan, if not, then these acts should ring a bell that conditions in Afghanistan are even more harsher than those in Pakistan and it may have to pay a much heavier price than it bargained for.
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| The so called elite Red brigade of the Taliban on road side |
Russia, which looks upon itself as the successor of the USSR, on the other hand is also enjoying the show and using clandestine techniques to keep the Taliban going, for teaching a lesson to the US, for having perpetrated this group in the 1980’s against them. In this scenario, it appears that the Americans have deliberately left behind a huge cache of arms & ammunition that include small arms, combat vehicles and even small man portable surface to air missile units, to keep the area simmering for the days to come. But if the Taliban is able to consolidate its position and power in Afghanistan, it will definitely look for associations with ultra-terrorist Islamic groups like ISIS, Hamas etc. and look towards its Islamic neighbors like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for imposing the radical Islamic governments there. This in long run is going to hurt the Russian interests as well, so Russia should follow the old proverb of – “Once bitten, twice shy” and Russia should take all remedial measures available with it, to stop Taliban before it grows roots and dismantle it, by providing help and assistance to the other factions fighting the Taliban, in consonance with the proverb – ‘A stitch in time, saves nine”.
What is in stake
for India
The entire nation of Pakistan is fed
on a single propaganda from the day one of their births i.e. to liberate
Kashmir from India. This agenda is
propagated with gusto for the public consumption by all political parties in
power or outside and even the Military establishment, as a tool to deflect the
public opinion from other burning issues like lack of infrastructure, food
scarcity, spiraling inflation etc. Over
the generations, the Pakistani establishment as well as the public is so
encompassed with this notion of liberation of Kashmir that they now have been
made to believe that Taliban will deliver Kashmir to them. However, as the Taliban, having become
politically austere, after the 2001 debacle, is now showing unwillingness to
interfere in political affairs of other nations, for the present. But the Pakistan establishment is getting restless
and had sent the wanted internationally proclaimed terrorist Hafiz Saeed of the
Jaish-e-Mohammad to Kabul, as the Pakistani establishment wants to project
before its masses, as to how big geo-political coup they have engineered in
Afghanistan, which will pave way for freedom of Kashmir. However, the statement issued by Taliban does
not meet their expectations and hence apparently they have now reined in the
ISIS (Khurrasan) into the Afghanistan cauldron, to intimidate Taliban, for
meeting their demands of causing unrest in Kashmir. The main aim of Pakistan is to shift focus
onto Taliban, so that it can state before the world forum that Pakistan has no
control over Taliban. This has become
a necessity for Pakistan, as its consistent sponsored insurgency of terrorists
into Kashmir is now publicly known the world over and it has now been
internationally cornered and exposed for such activities related to state
sponsored terrorism.
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| The Taliban militia in Kabul |
Conclusion
The
fate of Afghanistan and its citizens, during the Taliban rule in mid-1990’s
till their ouster from power, is well known the world over. The philosophy of the group has not changed
and it is only trying to portray itself as a reformed group. However, the actions undertaken by the ordinary
militia under Taliban control have not changed, nor have their mindset changed
and they have already started committing atrocities upon the citizens of
Afghanistan. The United States has
learnt its lesson and should not lend much credence to the so called ‘Peace
accord’ with Taliban, as these fringe elements have no political compulsions to
abide by the conditions stipulated therein, as is evident from the actions in
recent days. On the other hand Pakistan
is heading for a huge set back, as their consistent support to Islamic militant
& terrorist organizations, which is continuing unabated and hence the days
for Pakistani leadership are numbered, as the proverb goes – “As
you sow, so shall you reap”.
Pakistan’s home grown terrorist organizations like Tehrik-e-Taliban
(Pakistan), is an ideological offshoot of the Taliban ideology and terrorists
like Hafiz Saeed, in order to achieve their ends, may try and take over the
political establishment in Pakistan in lines with the Taliban. In such a scenario, the Pakistani nukes may
find way into hands of the Islamic terrorists, who can use them to strike
anywhere in the World, including United States or other European countries,
Israel and India and also China could be targeted.
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| The Northern Alliance fighters in the Panjshir valley in Afghanistan |
There is an old local proverb that goes as – “It takes a thorn, to take out another” (literal translation of the proverb), the factual simile of this proverb implies that since it was the Northern Alliance in late 1990’s that had ousted the Taliban from Kabul, only they can now be relied upon to take on the Taliban. This Northern Alliance is fighting for their pride and nation, which is a big a commitment viz a viz the Taliban’s religious commitment. With a huge chunk of Afghan army personnel, duly trained by the US, having joined forces with the Northern Alliance, the world powers should provide them all kind of support needed to overcome the current debacle and set up a rule of law in Afghanistan. The past history has well established that direct outside interference does not work in Afghanistan and only a local group can control the situation better and appropriately. Accordingly, as of now the Northern Alliance is the only hope before the world to establish a long lasting peace in Afghanistan.
© S Roy Biswas
N.B – All the photographs, maps, video links have been sourced from the internet – as the article is for free academic use, specific permissions have not been solicited
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